The men’s Six Nations kicks off this weekend with England under head coach Steve Borthwick as tricky as ever to judge.
Selection debates, injuries and their record of knife-edged wins and losses make it possible to believe in any of three very different scenarios playing out over the next two months.
And here they are…
England’s opening three matches are away to Ireland and at home to France and Scotland, and a cursory comparison of recent form and results would make it no huge shock if England were to lose all three.
At which point there would be gnashing of teeth and doom-laden forecasts of a first-ever defeat by Italy. We would hear howls of discontent from those who already want Borthwick’s head on a plate, saying he is not up to the job, or slamming his selections, or maybe just unsure of what he is trying to do.
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On the last point, there is nothing to stop Borthwick putting more of his ideas out there, as Stuart Lancaster and Clive Woodward sometimes did when they coached England.
In one interview with The Telegraph this week, Borthwick explained his priority midway through a World Cup cycle is to hone the attack, so that when England get to the defence-dominated business end of the tournament, they will be ready to take the few chances they get.
The obvious problem is that results in the here and now can never be completely ignored. So is Borthwick on the brink of the sack if results go badly?
The RFU said after the autumn that he had been given leeway due to the disrupted nature of 2023, post-Eddie Jones – which strongly implied this Six Nations would be the acid test.
Borthwick’s boss, the RFU chief executive Bill Sweeney, may have denied there is a target of four victories in the Six Nations, but the win ratio across the year from July to June does link to a financial bonus, and Borthwick is already guaranteed to miss a proportion of this.
And while there is a theory doing the rounds that Sweeney will be too tied up by a forthcoming RFU SGM to take decisive action, there is no reason to think the customary post-tournament review of England by an anonymous panel of experts will not take place (with the new Professional Rugby Board also now involved), and their verdict informs the choice of coach.
Sweeney said last week of these reviews: “Everything is discussed in there, warts and all. Did defence work, did attack work, how could it be improved, data which is produced from it, how did the backroom staff perform, psychological… you name it, everything that’s associated with running a high-performance team.
“And there are certain points coming out of that in terms of how does it make us better going into the next tournament.”
Anyone inclined to cut Borthwick some slack could point to the England players currently off limits to him in the French league – the RFU policy of keeping them at home has failed, in simple terms.
The open style of the Premiership also does not necessarily translate to Tests (although Borthwick may want to have his cake and eat it there, as he is asking players to throw the same brave pass in whichever environment).
Then there are England’s results in 2024, by when Borthwick’s fingerprints were properly on the team. In 10 matches against Six Nations and Rugby Championship opposition, England won three: against Italy by three points, Wales by two and Ireland by one in the last minute.
England have a habit of going down to the wire (Photo: PA)The other seven (against Scotland, France, New Zealand three times, Australia and South Africa) were narrow losses. So England’s overall points margin was just 4.1 points – and according to Opta, that’s the team’s lowest in 30 years.
So, how to interpret that? Borthwick described his team after last year’s win over Wales as one who “stays in the fight and finds a way” – but, too often, the second part was missing.
Could it be this England squad are so-so as a collective, and they won’t get much further without significant changes, but they are good enough to beat Scotland and Italy at home, with a big finish in Wales?
It doesn’t help that obvious difference-makers including Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, George Furbank and Jamie George are currently injured. Ollie Chessum is among those of whom great things are expected, but may need a bit more time than their injuries and the schedule are allowing.
The sunlit uplands
Here we go with the glass half full – and make no mistake, there are plenty of England supporters who’d like some tub-thumping to at least imagine the red rose wiping the floor with the rest of the Six Nations.
In this scenario, those fine margins of 2024 – when England were a kick by George Ford and a restart catch by Maro Itoje away from beating New Zealand and Australia in the autumn – would be transformed by a tad more experience, effort, clarity of thought and a slice of luck into a wondrous 2025!
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Read MoreSo the selection of No 8 Tom Willis on the bench in Ireland will work as he and the other five replacement forwards will get attuned to the might of the reigning champions from a safe distance, then invigorate England in the second half.
Similarly, the optimistic view is Henry Slade and Lawrence have bedded in now and are about to unleash the best England centre partnership since Jeremy Guscott and Will Carling.
And don’t fret over the lack of bulk-row bulk and all-round power in contact, because Borthwick’s horses-for-courses selection of the Curry twins will see England hurry and harry the Irish, keep the ball infield, and play off mistakes.
Hopefully the new wing Cadan Murley will be gleefully running in the tries, or Marcus Smith, whose goal-kicking has been on point this season, will be potting penalties and kicking the corners.
And Borthwick will gaze serenely down his beautifully battered nose as England nick a win in Dublin, then laugh in the face of Antoine Dupont at Twickenham a week later, and flay the Scotland record of five wins and a draw in the last seven meetings. That would leave only the Italians and Welsh to roll over for a Grand Slam – simple!
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