The final round of league phase action takes place in the Champions League tonight, and it should prove to be a chaotic evening across the continent with all 18 matches kicking off at 8pm UK time.
The new-look format means teams play eight matches each in what used to be the group stage of the competition, with the top eight in the 36-team table granted automatic entry to the last 16 draw.
Those clubs who finish between ninth and 24th must then survive a two-legged play-off tie in February to earn their own place in the knockout phase.
After the first seven matchdays, unbeaten Liverpool have progressed automatically, while beleaguered Manchester City face a fight to even reach the play-offs.
With Arsenal, Aston Villa and Celtic also in the mix, and with 16 of Wednesday’s 18 matches all having something riding on it, we take a look at what each team needs to qualify for the next phase of European football’s premier cup competition.
Arne Slot’s men have won their opening seven matches and have qualified straight into the round of 16 draw.
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Seven wins from seven so far in this season’s competition means they are top of the 36-team league phase table with the last remaining perfect record.
With 21 points, only Barcelona can stop Liverpool from topping the table come the end of the league phase.
They travel to PSV Eindhoven on 29 January.
How many points needed to qualify from Champions League league phase
Before the campaign began, Opta’s supercomputer worked out that teams with 10 points at the end of the league phase had a 99 per cent chance of finishing in the top 24, thereby reaching at least the knockout phase play-offs.
Teams with 12 points were unlikely to trouble the top eight, but the chances slowly start creeping up on 13 points, with 14 points having a 28 per cent likelihood of making the top eight.
That jumps to 73 per cent with 15 points and 98 per cent for 16 points, meaning 17 points – which would require five wins, two draws and one loss – is essentially guaranteeing a top-eight spot.
Liverpool and Barcelona are the only two sides currently confirmed to finish in the top eight, but Arsenal aren’t far behind – it is all-but sealed, in truth.
The Gunners are sat on 16 points, having won five, drawn one and lost one of their opening seven matches.
It means Mikel Arteta and co will progress straight to the round of 16 draw if they draw or beat Girona away on Wednesday.
They are currently three points above six teams on 13 points from eighth down to 13th, and Arsenal’s superior goal difference is essentially why they are already through bar a massive, massive turnaround in fortunes.
Aston Villa
Villa are among the teams three points behind Arsenal, but relinquished their grip on a top-eight spot after a disappointing loss at Monaco.
Unai Emery's side host Celtic on Wednesday, and they will likely have to win to give themselves any chance of finishing in the top eight.
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It could be the case that Villa are among - as they are currently - a handful of teams on the same amount of points, but goal difference decides which side of the dotted line they finish.
If they do finish below eighth, Villa would likely place between ninth and 16th and therefore be seeded for the play-off draw.
As things stand, Celtic are nestled in the table just below four European heavyweights: Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Juventus.
This shows how tight the table is, and how many teams have not had the league phase go as they would have expected or wanted.
For Celtic, the bonus is that they are guaranteed to finish in the top 24 and will therefore play the next round in February.
It would take a shock set of results of Celtic to finish in the top eight, but should they beat Villa there is a good chance they will place between ninth and 16th in order to be seeded for the play-off round.
That means there is plenty riding on Celtic's visit to Villa Park, as even a draw could lift the Scots to 16th or higher.
Man City
Few, if any, football fans in September would have expected this. After winning just two of their opening seven games, Manchester City are 25th on eight points and are therefore out of the qualifying places.
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That said, they host Club Brugge on Wednesday and know victory will help them reach the play-offs, but remarkably the 2023 champions - and treble winners - cannot finish any higher than 19th, meaning they will not be seeded should they make that round.
It would make them the team to avoid, in truth, while there is also the distinct possibility that City could face one of those aforementioned teams - Real, Bayern, Dortmund, Juve - in the play-off around.
City, as it turns out, have benefitted from this new format. They still have a chance of going through, and despite their shocking slump, they are capable or turning it around and going the distance. Sure, that seems far-fetched now, but it is entirely possible.
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