Speak to a Tory MP these days (there are still 121 of them after all) and one of the first questions that comes up is: “How do you think Kemi is doing?” The way in which it is asked tends to denote what the individual thinks before one can even answer.
Those who say it sceptically tend to take the view that the new Tory leader has not made enough of an impact to date – where is the policy? Where are the PMQs slam dunks? Those who ask it in an upbeat manner are hoping you will agree that Kemi Badenoch has hit the ground running: look how she can grab the news agenda with even a brief media appearance.
There’s a reason it’s a point of discussion: the first few months of Badenoch’s spell as Opposition leader have proved a mixed bag. She has disappointed parts of her party with her insistence that there are no quick fixes or answers. Some of her MPs worry her media comments can become distractions, while her Prime Minister’s Questions performances often needle Keir Starmer but can lack a specific focus. “She could be more effective sticking on one topic,” says a Tory MP.
But on the flip side, her team have landed some key punches. The decision last week to force a vote on holding a public inquiry into grooming gangs bruised Labour and was a factor in causing some of Starmer’s MPs to reconsider their position after a weekend in their constituencies. Others point to her willingness to stand up to the Tory party rather than attempt to be a Tory-lite version of Nigel Farage’s Reform party. “There’s some serious work to do for the party but it’s also fair to say that if you had offered us this landscape in July, we would have taken it,” says a former minister.
Yet while the official line from Team Badenoch is that this is a five-year project, so everyone calm down, even the Tory leader’s closest aides know time is a luxury they don’t necessarily have. The reason? 2025 will be the year of the fight for the right.
At one point it looked as though the local elections in May would be the main battleground. However, Badenoch has been gifted a light reprieve thanks to the Labour government. Changes to local government mean some councils have been able to delay the votes by a year. This has led to frustration in Nigel Farage’s Reform party as they accuse the two main parties of dodging democracy for fear of losing to Reform.
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Read MoreBut even if a couple of painful votes have been delayed, Badenoch cannot escape polling. And here the picture is looking rather tough. This week, YouGov released a poll that has been avidly shared by Tory MPs over WhatsApp. It showed the Tories in third place behind Reform and Labour. Meanwhile, Farage’s Reform party was only one point behind Labour. Reform aides are bullish that they can overtake Labour in the coming months.
However, the more immediate problem is that Badenoch cannot afford for the Tories to be a third party. This week The Spectator’s data hub, too, found that the Tories are now running behind Reform and Labour on a poll of polls metric – taking the averages.
In a sign that Badenoch is aware of the need for momentum, she is expected to give a set piece speech this week which will link to the first part of her plan to get the Tories back into power: rebuild trust with the British people and then start to rebuild the party.
This is what the shadow front bench were told at last week’s Cabinet meeting would be the focus, with decisions on policy offerings at the next election coming much further down the line. While this has been interpreted by some as meaning no policy at all for years, there is still scope for new stances and positions on policy. “What we are not doing is writing a manifesto for four years’ time now,” explains a Badenoch ally.
The problem for Badenoch is that if the current polling trends stick, Tory MPs and party figures will start to divide over the solution to their problems. This is not where I suggest that Badenoch is about to become the latest in a long line of Tory leaders to be ousted by their party. First off, there is little appetite for this – and the 1922 Committee rules have been changed to make it harder for MPs to axe their leader.
Instead, what Badenoch will come up against if she is not careful are calls for a deal of some sort with Reform. “A lot of Tories who don’t understand politics will do the straight maths and say if you add up the Reform and Tory vote, you beat Labour,” says a party old hand. “They’ll then say Reform and the Tories agree on more than they disagree on so some kind of deal needs to be done.”
It’s at this point that splits in the Tory party would likely resurface after a period of relative calm. “We cannot try to be Reform,” says a former minister. “And we certainly cannot join forces with Reform. There are plenty of seats we can win back from the Liberal Democrats.”
Yet Tories on the right are already whispering about what type of arrangement might be possible. Would it simply be a plan for tactical voting or something more formal? If Badenoch wants to avoid these debates, she must show she can beat Farage on her own terms.
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