Welcome to the pollster’s nightmare. In every national opinion poll so far this year, three parties have scored between 20 per cent and 30 per cent share of the vote.
In the months since Labour and the Conservatives racked up their lowest ever combined share of the vote at a general election, the two-party dominance of British politics has actually weakened further.
That’s a product of four dynamics. Labour has slipped down below 30 per cent; the Conservatives have only gained modest ground on their general election vote share; and Reform UK now consistently breaks the 20 per cent barrier. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens routinely account for a further 18-20 per cent together.
The polls tell a story which is a fair reflection of an undecided nation. There’s widespread dissatisfaction with a Government which is battling to define itself; voters remain unsure about the new Opposition Leader, while the right is grievously split; and voters of all shades in most places are more willing to switch allegiances, more willing to experiment with small parties and independents, and less willing to define themselves by a tribal party identity.
That makes sense. When the “Red Wall” went blue, it was bad news for Labour but also an inevitable challenge for the Conservatives. People who voted Tory all their lives in Shropshire or Surrey saw the people of Teesside gaining national headlines and a seat at the top table by becoming floating voters, and decided to give it a go too.
This pendulum will continue to swing – that’s why it’s a mistake to say “Labour rebuilt the Red Wall” in 2024. They won back many of those seats and some of those voters, but the embedded regional strongholds they once had are gone for good, replaced by battlegrounds.
For pollsters, it is a scenario heaped with risk. A three-way big party split, highly efficient local votes in some places for smaller parties, and a flurry of curveball independents like the Gaza candidates backed by the hard left, is a recipe for uncertainty – and the involuntary application of egg to faces.
Add in the fact that the dynamics vary a lot from area to area, between different types of seat, and within numerous groups within those seats, and trying to call the next election becomes a brain-addling puzzle.
The polling industry developed the MRP approach – combining a very large poll with other sources of information such as census data – in recent years to more accurately predict outcomes in individual seats from national poll data. MRP has delivered great insights and improved accuracy, but it too will be challenged by hotly contested multi-party elections that simply become far closer.
In December, an MRP analysis by More in Common found that Labour is currently on course to lose its majority. Just as notable – perhaps more so – was the sheer closeness of the election that it portrayed. More in Common’s director, Luke Tryl, noted at the time that “271 seats would be won by a party getting under a third of the vote. 221 seats have a lead of less than 5 per cent, 87 are within 2 per cent”.
In other words, an increasingly marginal Parliament, in which one party surging nationally plays out differently in multiple close contests on the ground.
There are already constituencies like this. In Dudley, in the West Midlands, last July Labour won the seat with 34.1 per cent of the vote, ahead of the Conservatives on 28.8 per cent, with Reform not far behind on 26.4 per cent.
In a recent council by-election in the seat Reform leapt to 30 per cent, slashing the incumbent Labour share by more than half down to 29 per cent and… the Conservatives won, on a comparatively modest vote increase of 7 per cent, up to 35 per cent.
Being boring won Labour an election - it won't help them now
Read MoreElectorally, the country at large is becoming more like Dudley. We are so used to focusing on the binary question of a lead in the polls, that this story is under-appreciated. Particularly at this point in the electoral cycle, years away from a general election, it matters far less that one party is three up or down, and far more that hundreds of seats seem to be turning into three-way marginals.
If commentators and voters haven’t necessarily paid it close attention yet, you can be damned sure that MPs have – in particular new MPs and those who find themselves representing newly marginal constituencies. The anxious question of how best to secure re-election becomes ever more vexed, particularly as the trade-offs become more complex. If you are a Labour MP sitting on 35 per cent of the vote, with challenges coming from the Lib Dems, the Tories, Reform, the Greens, pro-Gaza independents and disillusionment among your own supporters, which do you prioritise?
More importantly, from the Government’s perspective, to which, if any, of these problems is the answer: be dutiful and loyal to the Prime Minister? Perhaps constituents who are tempted by small parties or independents want to see a rebellious streak to reassure them. Few of your 2024 voters will be getting in touch to say “stay the course” or “support the unpopular decisions” – but plenty will be clamouring for you to waver, be it on farming, or taxes, or immigration.
This week has already seen some Labour backbenchers begin to break ranks by supporting an inquiry into rape gangs and the covering up of those crimes. News that the Chancellor’s team is pressing for “ruthless” spending cuts suggests new additions to the list of wedge issues, on which other parties will press, are coming.
In a Britain where hundreds of seats become close marginals, many contested three ways, constituents increasingly hold more power to pressurise MPs than the Prime Minister or his whips do. Things will start to get really turbulent.
Mark Wallace is chief executive of Total Politics Group
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