If Australia’s series victory against India has taught us anything, it’s that England’s commitment to playing rookie spinner Shoaib Bashir in the Ashes next winter could cost them the series.
Bashir showed flashes of brilliance during his debut year in Test cricket, playing decisive roles in wins at Trent Bridge and Christchurch while taking 49 wickets in 2024.
Only Jasprit Bumrah and Gus Atkinson took more but it is Bashir’s average of 40.16 that raises a red flag.
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Read MoreIn Pakistan, a series England lost 2-1 after home spinners Sajid Khan and Noman Ali ran riot, Bashir averaged 49.55.
In New Zealand, despite starring in the first Test win at Christchurch, that average crept up to 51.75.
Coach Brendon McCullum continued to back the Somerset spinner after that series and intimated he would remain in England’s XI for an Ashes series that starts in Perth on 21 November.
“He’s a tough kid, properly tough,” McCullum said. “Look at the statistical element, it doesn’t read great but the tasks we have coming up, the pace bowling group we’re trying to generate, his role in that is significant.
“He’s learned a lot about what may be required in the next little while; it’s not just bowling teams out in the last innings in favourable conditions. It’s about being able to challenge and create that variation at the other end that allows seamers to rotate.
“He’s good. He’s tough. He’s still early in his career and we know he’s not the finished article but we’ll keep investing in him because we think his upside is significant and it’ll work out nicely.”
Whether or not England have a rethink on Bashir remains doubtful.
But given the way overseas spinners have fared in Australia since England’s last Ashes series win there in 2010-11 and the way pitches Down Under and the new Kookaburra ball have made pace bowling even more potent, it’s worth asking whether McCullum and captain Ben Stokes would be better playing all-seam attacks for the majority of matches in the Ashes.
Starting in the 2021-21 Ashes, when Covid concerns made Cricket Australia keen for quicker finishes, pitches Down Under have been far spicier than previously.
The new Kookaburra ball that has a more pronounced seam has also tipped the odds heavily in the favour of seamers.
That was shown in the India series just gone, when just 15 wickets fell to spin across five Tests.
Even Nathan Lyon, one of the best spinners of the modern era, only took nine wickets at close to 37 in a series his team won 3-1.
India’s Jasprit Bumrah, meanwhile, took 32 at 13.06, while Australia’s Pat Cummins’ 25 wickets came at 21.36.
The conditions rewarded high-class pace, while high-class spin was made to look impotent. Ravichandran Ashwin, India’s greatest slow bowler of the modern era, retired after one Test. Ravindra Jadeja took four wickets at 54.50 across the series.
When you look at how successful spin has been Down Under in the past decade, only Ashwin and Jadeja have had any real success and that was during India’s series wins in 2018-19 and 2020-21. The next best performer in that period for an overseas slow bowler? Step forward South Africa’s Keshav Maharaj, who took four wickets at 40 in 2016.
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Read MoreSo what chance has Bashir, whose bounce on the harder pitches Down Under may appeal to England but whose all-to-frequent loose balls will be manna from heaven for Australia’s batters.
Even Graeme Swann, England’s greatest spinner of the past 50 years, only took 15 wickets at 39.80 back in 2010-11.
Since, it has been a car crash in Australia for every tweaker from these shores, starting with Swann in 2013-14, when he retired after three Tests having taken seven wickets at 80, Moeen Ali in 2017-18 (five wickets at 115) and Jack Leach in 2021-22 (six wickets at 53.50).
With England hopefully having a plethora of pace options and the latest injury blow to Stokes casting doubt on how much the captain may be able to bowl in future, playing without a spinner in Australia next time looks like an appealing option.
It would protect Stokes and allow an all-seam attack of Brydon Carse, Atkinson, Mark Wood and Jofra Archer to be unleashed. With others in reserve – Josh Tongue, Matthew Potts, Chris Woakes, Olly Stone and perhaps Dan Worrall – this attack could be rotated to keep everyone fresh.
And what to do when the frontline seamers need a breather in the Tests or England want something different? Well, Stokes could come on as a shock bowler for short, sharp bursts, Joe Root could turn his arm over with his part-time spin, as could Jacob Bethell if he has managed to break into the XI on a permanent basis by then.
It is not that Bashir is not talented or does not have a bright future. But is exposing him in a country where visiting spinners, and many who are far more accomplished than him, routinely get butchered really the best ploy?
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