In August, I put together some reasonable expectations for the 2024 Chicago Bears, including both reasonable and bold predictions for this season. With the 2024 season in the books, let’s look at how those predictions panned out.
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Reasonable Expectations for the 2024 Chicago Bears
Original Prediction: The Chicago Bears will win at least nine games this season.
When I checked in on these predictions in late October, coming out of the bye week, the Bears were 4-2, and this looked like a lock to convert. Then came the Fail Mary and many embarrassing, head-scratching losses that sabotaged this prediction and resulted in a 10-game losing streak before the Bears finally won their next game on Sunday against the Green Bay Packers. I came up four wins short of hitting this one, but a few different endings would have done the job.
Bears had ball in last few minutes of 4th quarter with a chance to tie or take the lead 7x this year. Caleb put offense in position to score 5x. Made FG vs. GBMissed FG vs. GBNo FG attempted vs. DETForced OT vs. MINTook lead vs. WAS – lost on Hail Mary
— Johnathan Wood (@Johnathan_Wood1) January 6, 2025Result: Miss
Original Prediction: Caleb Williams will break the Chicago Bears rookie passing touchdown record.
Caleb Williams wasn’t perfect this season, but he was damn good, and those rookie records didn’t stand a chance. Williams smashed the passing yardage and touchdown records, finishing the season with 3,541 passing yards and 20 touchdowns.
Result: Hit
© Matt Marton-Imagn ImagesOriginal Prediction: Caleb Williams will break the franchise’s rookie passing yardage record.
See above.
Result: Hit
Original Prediction: The Bears will have four 600-yard receivers this season.
Here’s the totals for the Bears top pass catchers this season:
D.J. Moore | 966 YDS (56.8 YDS/G) Keenan Allen | 744 YDS (49.6 YDS/G) Rome Odunze | 734 YDS (43.2 YDS/G) Cole Kmet | 474 YDS (27.9 YDS/G) D’Andre Swift | 386 YDS (22.7 YDS/G)This is another miss that looked like a lock before the 10-game losing streak that started with the meltdown in D.C. In the end, Cole Kmet’s confounding disappearance from the offense following his best game of the season before the bye week in Jacksonville did me in, with Kmet coming up 126 yards shy of becoming the fourth Bears pass catcher with 600 receiving yards this season.
Result: Miss
© Daniel Bartel-Imagn ImagesOriginal Prediction: Jaylon Johnson will be a first-team All-Pro this season.
Johnson turned in another solid season and was named to the Pro Bowl, but first-teamers usually play on successful teams, and Johnson did not play on a successful team. We won’t know the answer to this one for a few weeks, but I wouldn’t bet on it. For what it’s worth, Johnson’s overall grade at PFF placed him 20th among all cornerbacks in the league this season, a decline from last season, when he was snubbed of a rightful first-team All-Pro selection.
Likelihood: Low
Original Prediction: Tory Taylor will be a first-team All-Pro this season.
Caleb Williams’ prediction that Taylor wouldn’t do much punting this season was wrong, as Taylor’s 82 punts were the second most in the league. Likewise, my prediction of Taylor becoming a first-team All-Pro selection will also be mistaken when the voting is completed in a few weeks. Taylor wasn’t bad, but he wasn’t good enough. His 41.57 gross average yards ranks 18th, his long of 68 ranks 15th, and his 38 punts that resulted in the opponent being pinned inside the 20 ranked 3rd this season.
Likelihood: Low
© David Banks-Imagn ImagesNow, the juicy stuff!
Bold Predictions for the 2024 Chicago Bears
Original Prediction: Rome Odunze will lead the Chicago Bears in receiving yards.
Rome Odunze finished the season with 734 yards, the third-best in the Chicago receiver corps. Odunze was 10 yards behind Keenan Allen for second (despite 20 fewer targets) and trailed DJ Moore by 232 yards with 39 fewer targets. The premise of this prediction was that Odunze would overtake Moore and Allen as the primary target for Williams at some point in the season, and had that happened, this would have hit. Still, Odunze is clearly Williams’ favorite target, and their second season together should produce that result.
Result: Miss
Original Prediction: Caleb Williams will break Erik Kramer’s franchise record for the most passing yards in a single season.
Kramer threw for 3,838 yards in 1995, and that’s the record for the quality quarterback-deprived franchise that resides at Halas Hall.
Williams finished the season with 3,541 yards, falling 297 yards short of Kramer’s single-season record. Still, Williams finished with the fifth-most passing yards in any season by a Bears quarterback and became only the third quarterback to eclipse the 3,500-yard mark, joining Kramer and Jay Cutler.
Result: Miss
Original Prediction: Caleb Williams will also break the franchise’s single-season touchdown record.
Eric Kramer’s 29 touchdowns in 1995 was the mark to beat, and it will be for one more season, at least. Williams finished his rookie season with 20 passing touchdowns, falling considerably short of Kramer’s mark despite having nine through his first six games. Williams’ 20 passing touchdowns is the 12th most by a Bears quarterback in a single season.
Result: Miss
Original Prediction: Roschon Johnson will lead the Bears in rushing touchdowns.
Here’s how the rushing touchdown race shook out in the Bears backfield this season:
Roschon Johnson: 6D’Andre Swift: 6Khalil Herbert: 1
So, that’s technically a hit, right? Johnson’s six rushing touchdowns were tied for the team lead with D’Andre Swift. Johnson also missed three games, and his goal line role wasn’t seldom seen since the Bears struggled to ever be near the goal line. I’m taking this one and placing it in the win column.
Result: Hit
© Daniel Bartel-Imagn ImagesOriginal Prediction: The Chicago Bears will win the NFC North.
*Insert loud fart noise*
The Chicago Bears finished dead last in the NFC North and won only one game against divisional opponents this season despite coming very close in multiple games. But close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, and the Bears were the worst team in the best division in football this season. Now, Chicago will watch all three of their NFC North counterparts in the playoffs from their couches.
Result: Miss
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