San Diego voters gave Mayor Todd Gloria another four years to lead the charge on the city’s worsening homelessness crisis, carry out his plans to expand shelter and move unhoused residents off the streets and on a path to housing.
But in the face of a $258 million budget shortfall in the coming year, the road ahead appears challenging, and some are questioning the current direction.
Last year’s census of San Diegans experiencing unsheltered homelessness revealed a 6% increase — or roughly 200 more people — bringing the total to 3,489, the highest count in at least the past decade. While officials have managed to slow the pace, the number of folks living on sidewalks and in riverbeds and canyons has steadily increased every year since the start of the pandemic.
As we head into the New Year, here are the factors and forces shaping Gloria’s goal to expand shelter capacity.
Shelter crisis
Every month for more than two years, the number of San Diegans who fall into homelessness for the first time has outpaced those who move off the streets and into housing. That trend ended in November.
The vast majority of the county’s unhoused residents live in the city, where emergency shelter remains elusive. On any given day, the city’s entire shelter system can reach capacity by noon. Nearly 90% of requests for shelter are denied.
Much of the city’s shelter system is propped up on short-term deals and grant funding that’s set to expire. Officials managed to avoid having to return people back to the streets by replacing hundreds of indoor beds that were scheduled to close by the end of 2024, bridging the gap with a mix of indoor and outdoor options. But the demand for shelter remains high.
“We just don’t have enough beds,” said Casey Snell, who leads homelessness housing innovations with the San Diego Housing Commission, explaining to board members at a recent meeting why so many requests are denied.
Budget crisis
The cost of running the city of San Diego has outpaced revenue. That includes increasing costs to provide homelessness services and shelter.
This comes on the heels of voters rejecting Measure E, a one-cent sales tax that would have generated up to $400 million annually, which officials had hoped would help fund city business for years to come. Now, the city is bracing for a $258 million budget shortfall in the coming year.
In a December budget meeting, officials described a bleak five-year outlook and discussed the possibility of cutting entire services the city provides to residents every day.
“We really need to come to terms with the fact that as an organization we are going to provide less services,” said Matt Vespi, the city’s chief financial officer.
At the same time, officials anticipate having to increase spending on homelessness services and shelter — with nearly $56 million in planned commitments next year and $63 million the year after.
Councilmember Henry Foster urged officials to look at how this money is being spent, saying that it appears the city has resigned itself to just throwing money at a worsening problem.
“That makes no sense to me,” Foster said during the meeting. “The question needs to be asked, ‘Are we deploying the services appropriately and are we actually making ground?’ If the answer is no, then we need to figure out how we can do better, not to increase the costs and projections.”
Hope at Vine
One of Gloria’s main proposals to permanently increase shelter capacity — leasing and converting a warehouse near the San Diego International Airport into a 1,000-bed shelter — is mired in controversy.
Over the summer, the City Council delayed the controversial deal citing concerns about costs and obligations over the term of the 30-year lease. So, in the December meeting, several council members expressed surprise and frustration when Gloria’s office proposed annual funding for 1,000 new beds under “planned commitments,” costing roughly $33 million every year.
“This is a significant assumption to make for something I view as uncertain,” Councilmember Vivian Moreno said, adding, “the cost should not be included as a planned commitment until the Council takes action.”
It’s a common theme from this mayor’s office, Moreno said, where they say one thing and do another.
“We can’t say that we’re going to tighten our belt with one hand and then just let the belt loose with the other hand.”
Cody Dulaney is an investigative reporter at inewsource focusing on social impact and government accountability.
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