Why this flu outbreak is worse than last year’s ...Middle East

The number of patients in hospital with flu has quadrupled in the last month, heaping further pressure on the NHS, the latest figures show.

NHS data shows flu cases have continued to soar, with more than 5,000 patients in hospital with the virus on Sunday 29 December, up from 4,102 in hospital on Christmas Day.

There were an average of 4,469 patients with flu in hospital each day in the week ending Sunday 29 December, which is almost 3.5 times higher than the same week last year but slightly below this point two years ago when the average for the week was 5,441 – their highest level for at least six years.

But with new flu infections continuing to rise, their are concerns hospital admissions this winter could even equal that high of two years ago.

“The latest data makes it clear that we are in the second option – a flu wave close to the very large wave of 2022/23, and it hasn’t peaked yet,” said Professor Christina Pagel, of University College London.

So why is this year’s flu outbreak so much worse than it was last year?

As ever, with winter virus infections, there are a number of factors at play and it is difficult to be precise about the impact of each.

But scientists agree that falling immunity is a key factor behind this year’s rise.

Britain’s collective immunity to flu is lower this year because flu cases last year were quite low.

So, to take a step back and go back to winter two years ago (2022/23), when cases were very high – immunity in the population grew significantly as infections soared. And this helped, which keep cases low last winter (2023/24).

But that low level of cases last year, in turn, reduced our collective immunity – leaving us more vulnerable this year, scientists say.

“Typically after a really bad year we would see a much less severe one, though not always,” Professor Paul Hunter, of the University of East Anglia, told The i Paper.

“So 2022-23 was really bad, probably because of very little flu in 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons. Then last year was not so bad so going into this winter population immunity will have been lower than a year ago.”

“Population immunity to the current circulating variant will be pretty low and that I suspect is the reason for this year’s increase. The big question now is when will cases peak and whether the peak will be greater than we saw in 2022-23. I won’t be making any bets,” he said.

At the same time as immunity from previous infections has fallen, flu vaccinations – the other key component of our immunity – have also fallen this year. This may be in part because last year’s low case numbers made the virus seem less pressing this year, scientists suggest.

The importance of flu vaccinations is not so much to do with reducing the overall number of infections but rather in cutting the risk of serious illness and hospital admissions when people do get infected.

“Vaccinations will have some impact but probably not a huge amount as most people are not actually offered flu vaccine. Even in vaccinated people infection is quite common as the vaccine is only about 50 per cent effective. But it’s main role is to reduce disease severity in people who are still infected,” Professor Hunter said.

The symptoms of a common flu

Flu symptoms come on very quickly and can include:

The other factor that can typically drive a huge flu wave is the appearance of a nasty new variant but this is not thought to be case this year.

However, because the dominant strain this year (H1N1) is one that has been less common in recent years (which have been dominated by H3N2) the vaccine is assumed to be slightly less effective this year.

Professor Steve Griffin, of Leeds University, told The i Paper: “This wave is being driven primarily by the Swine flu descended H1N1 seasonal viruses, whereas H3N2 has been the major player in recent years. So the dominant strain is slightly different to that present in the vaccine, although serology studies indicate it should still be covered.”

Lindsay Broadbent, Lecturer in Virology, University of Surrey, added: “There are many strains of influenza and each year the vaccine is designed to target the strains that are most likely to be circulating.

“This is based on flu data that emerges from around the world, meaning the efficacy of the flu vaccine can change from year to year. However, even if the vaccine isn’t a perfect match to the circulating strains, it does still provide good protection against severe disease. But even a small drop in efficacy can result in increased hospitalisation numbers.”

Simon Williams, a behavioural scientist and public health expert at Swansea University, told The i Paper that people seem less concerned about viruses this year – which is a key reason while jabs are down.

“I think we have an element of people worrying less about the flu, Covid and other infections this winter, compared to last winter, and certainly compared to the previous three winters. This is partly due to people having gotten used to campaigns and news reports talking about Covid, flu and NHS pressure – something psychologists call ‘risk habituation’,” he said.

“Many have gone back to thinking that flu is relatively harmless, but for some it can be serious or deadly,” he said.

So what has the vaccine uptake been?

Up to the 15 December 2024, the provisional proportion of people in England who had received an influenza vaccine this season in targeted groups was as 37.6 per cent in those aged under 65 years in a clinical risk group (this compares to 39.7 per cent a year earlier).

In all pregnant women uptake was 33.1 per cent (versus 30.3 per cent a year earlier) and 73 per cent in all those aged over 65 years (versus 76.7 per cent a year ago)

For children aged 2 years-old it was 40.3 per cent in (versus 42.5 per cent a year earlier) and 41.6 per cent in children aged 3 years (versus 42.5 per cent a year earlier)

For primary school-aged children (aged 4 to 10 years), national vaccine uptake was 49.1 per cent this year, compared to 48.1 per cent at this point last year.

Frontline healthcare workers, the figure was 32.2 per cent between September 1 and Nov 30. This compares to 38.5 per cent a year earlier (which was then the lowest uptake for a decade).

A UKHSA spokesperson says: “We understand how busy healthcare workers are at this time of year and coping with winter illnesses adds increased pressure.

“This is why we are urging all staff to get vaccinated and protect themselves, their patients and their families from these illnesses.”

How to get a flu jab and who is eligible for a free vaccine

You can no longer book a flu vaccination at a pharmacy using NHS online service.

But free flu vaccines are still being offered for those people who are eligible at this link until March 31st.

If you’re not eligible, you can get a flu vaccine privately, from the same pharmacists, with charges typically varying from around £10 to £20 depending on the pharmacy.

Who is eligible for a free flu vaccine:

-If you’re aged 65 or over (including those who will be 65 by 31 March 2025)-have certain health conditions-are pregnant-live in a care home for older adults-Other care home residents, carers and people who live with someone who has a weakened immune system can get the flu vaccine.

Children aged 2 or 3 years and school-aged children (Reception to Year 11) can get the children’s flu vaccine.

Frontline health and social care workers can also get flu vaccines.

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