Israeli forces could remain in Lebanon after the 60-day period agreed in last month’s ceasefire deal, according to officials and analysts, as the UN urged Israel to accelerate its withdrawal and the British government warned of “devastating consequences” if the truce breaks down.
Senior security officials told Israel’s public broadcaster, Kan News, that the expiry date was not “sacred” and that withdrawal would depend on developments on the ground.
Under the agreement of 27 November, which largely ended fighting between Israel and the Lebanese militant faction Hezbollah, the Lebanese army must deploy along the border with Israel, and armed groups must retreat from south Lebanon over a two-month period during which the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) would gradually withdraw.
The agreement was modelled on UN Resolution 1701, which marked the end of the last war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006 but was never fully implemented.
Israeli officials believe the Lebanese army is not moving swiftly enough, they told the Jerusalem Post, adding that the military now expects to remain past the agreed deadline.
“The Lebanese Army is deploying in southern Lebanon but at a much slower pace than agreed,” one source told the newspaper. “And the question is: What to do on day 60?”
A Hezbollah official suggested on Monday that a continued Israeli presence in Lebanon could lead to renewed hostilities.
“We’ve committed to patience for 60 days and after that the current forces will become occupation forces and we’ll deal with them accordingly,” said Mahmoud Qmati, deputy head of Hezbollah’s political council.
Israeli tanks are seen on a road near the border between Israel and Lebanon (Photo: Avi Ohayon/Reuters)Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati has called on the US and France, both of which are represented on a committee monitoring ceasefire violations, to “pressure the Israeli enemy to withdraw from the Lebanese territories it is occupying and to stop its atrocities and hostile activities.”
Mikati said he has also submitted a dossier to the UN alleging more than 800 violations of the ceasefire, including the bombing of villages along the border.
Israel is conducting ongoing operations inside Lebanon that it claims are targeting Hezbollah assets, and it has warned Lebanese civilians against returning to dozens of villages where its forces are operating.
Last week, Israel forces reportedly pressed further into Lebanon to reach the Wadi al-Hujeir area about five miles north of the border – one of the most advanced positions they have reached during the ground offensive and subsequent truce period – before retreating.
Israel has also carried out dozens of airstrikes since the ceasefire, claiming to have killed 44 Hezbollah militants. Lebanese officials report civilian casualties, including a family in the village of Haris.
UNIFIL, the UN peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon and a member of the ceasefire monitoring committee, has criticised what it calls “continued destruction” by Israel in south Lebanon and expressed concerns about the speed of Israel’s withdrawal, claiming that only one town, Khiam, has been handed over to the Lebanese Army.
A Hezbollah drone being intercepted by Israeli air defences during the war that ended on 27 November (Photo: Jalaa Marey/AFP/Getty)“UNIFIL continues to call on the IDF to speed up their withdrawal from Lebanese territory and the Lebanese Armed Forces to accelerate their deployment to the south,” deputy spokesperson Kandice Ardiel told The i paper.
Yoni Ben Menachem, an Israeli veteran military analyst with close ties to the defence establishment, said that Israel has no faith in the Lebanese Army to displace Hezbollah and could establish a “permanent” presence inside Lebanon.
“The army will withdraw to strategic locations inside Lebanon to implement the ceasefire,” he said. “They will withdraw from some places but there will be a permanent Israeli presence inside south Lebanon.”
Ben Menachem added that Israel could seek to create a “barrier zone” inside Lebanon, similar to what it has done in Syria – an option reportedly supported by senior Israeli military officials.
The Lebanese Army, the Israeli military, and the Israeli prime minister’s office declined to comment.
Michael Young, senior editor at the Carnegie Middle East Center based in Lebanese capital Beirut, said the Lebanese army was wary of a confrontation with Hezbollah without political cover. The country has been without a president since 2022.
“The Lebanese army was a little bit blindsided – they were given responsibility for implementing this arrangement without a lot of political cover,” he said.
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Read More“I don’t doubt the army wants to implement the arrangement, but it’s much riskier for the army to enter into a confrontation with Hezbollah, even more so given that its resources have come under great stress because of the economic situation.”
“The big question mark is: who will become president, and will the president be able to give the army the cover it needs?”
The picture could become clearer next week after a visit to Beirut by US envoy Amos Hochstein, with Washington thought to favour military chief, Joseph Aoun, and a parliamentary session to elect a new president slated for 9 January. Delegations from France and Saudi Arabia are also expected next week.
Hezbollah’s position has been weakened by its losses during the war with Israel, and the loss of a key ally with the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria. But a prolonged Israeli occupation of Lebanese territory could revitalise the group, Young believes.
“That would allow Hezbollah to say that the resistance needs to continue,” he said. “It will be exactly what they need to maintain this sort of armed presence in Lebanese society.”
The UK Foreign Office said the situation remained “volatile” and warned that a breakdown of the truce could be disastrous.
A spokesperson said: “We strongly urge both sides to respect the terms of the ceasefire and open a pathway to lasting peace. Further escalation is in no one’s interests and could have devastating human consequences on both sides of the border.”
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