Trickle of Moves, Reports and Talks, Pitcher Injuries, Catcher Framing, and Other Cubs Bullets ...Middle East

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Trickle of Moves, Reports and Talks, Pitcher Injuries, Catcher Framing, and Other Cubs Bullets

The long-awaited James Gunn-edition of ‘Superman’ has its trailer out today. I will see the movie, mostly because of Gunn, but it’s hard to be optimistic after so many years (decades!) of clunky, forgettable attempts at this character. And the trailer looks … busy. There is a LOT going on, and I’m not exactly sure how you fit all that into a coherent single movie without it feeling overstuffed and completely shallow. But, again, I choose to give Gunn some trust for now, and I’ll judge after I see the movie this summer.

I mentioned a few days ago that I expected a lot of activity around baseball throughout the work week, what with the Winter Meetings in the past, the cascade of deals starting, and Christmas next week. Historically, against a backdrop like that, you see a flurry of signings – not necessarily the big ones, but lots and lots of lesser ones – that final work week before Christmas. We haven’t really seen that at all around baseball so far this week, and, outside of the Cody Bellinger trade, it’s kinda been quiet all over. Surprising. Maybe today and tomorrow will cook? Or maybe folks are just gonna be working through the weekend? Or, of course, it could just continue to be a trickle on through January with the rest of the signings. I guess I’m just already itchy to see the Cubs make an impactful addition in the bullpen or the rotation, or a quality addition to the bench. We did get a couple smaller signings in baseball yesterday, though, so maybe it’s starting. The Mets reportedly agreed to a deal with Griffin Canning:

Mets, RHP Griffin Canning reportedly agree to 1-year deal, per multiple reports including t.co/Z3s2EphcSH's @AnthonyDiComo. pic.twitter.com/3eVui3EmtK

    — MLB (@MLB) December 19, 2024 Canning reportedly gets $4.25 million on the deal, and the 28-year-old former top prospect will have a chance to turn the corner he never quite could with the Angels (whom you may recall sent him to the Braves in the Jorge Soler salary dump trade, and the Braves subsequently non-tendered Canning). Meanwhile, the Mets are rounding out their rotation by taking chances: Canning, Clay Holmes converting to starting, Frankie Montas actually getting results again, a bunch of question marks, and Kodai Senga coming back from a lost season to front the rotation. You gotta believe, given the Juan Soto investment and the prime ages of the other top players on the team, Steve Cohen is going to pony up for them to add a significant starting pitcher from here. The White Sox are signing former Brewers pitcher Bryse Wilson to a one-ish million-dollar deal. Incredibly, the move did not push the White Sox’s over/under win total for 2025 above the 50-win mark:

    The 2025 Chicago White Sox futures odds are up @DKSportsbook and they are something else…Win total is set at 49.5 WINS ? pic.twitter.com/KsCM3vdneC

    — br_betting (@br_betting) December 18, 2024 I joke, but, I mean, that is wild. That has to be the lowest over/under win total we’ve ever seen, right? If you missed the report last night, by the way, the Jesus Luzardo trade talks might be dead. I expect that to be met with mixed reactions, because we all know the extreme injury risk that would’ve come along with that acquisition (for all we know, that’s what scuttled the deal). The flip side is that it is very difficult to acquire an ace, and while it’s unlikely Luzardo would unlock that ability and stay healthy over a full season, he does have that potential; not every pitcher does. So I would’ve been OK with the Cubs taking the chance at an appropriate trade price. But I’m also OK, for now, that it didn’t work out. This is an incredible story about the infamous “Arson Judge” tweet (note that the body of the post is supposed to say Giants, not Yankees):

    Farhan Zaidi says he knew the Yankees weren't getting "Arson Judge" pic.twitter.com/KT4A8rVrRQ

    — Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) December 18, 2024 So there you have a front office exec saying quite plainly that a reporting screw-up may have materially impacted his team’s ability to sign a player, and/or may have spurred another team into further action. Remember that the next you wonder whether it could actually be true that teams are negotiating through the media! Clearly, it happens, even at the very highest levels. Early, early, early talk of the MLB owners potentially seeking a salary cap in the next round of CBA negotiations (the current deal expires in two years). MLB released its extensive report on the rise of pitcher injuries, and the conclusions are as unsurprising as they are logical: the intense focus on velocity, movement, and max-effort, all trickling on down to youth baseball, are likely the primary cause of increased injuries. It isn’t true for EVERY SINGLE PITCHER, but in the aggregate, these are the primary factors. I know some pitchers/trainers/etc. want to argue about it, and I can appreciate their position, but this is just the reality. Also the reality in the aggregate? More velocity, movement, and max-effort can improve in-game results. So pitchers are going to chase it, despite the risks, and teams will endorse it. Staying healthy for an entire career but topping out at High-A with a 4.50 ERA is not the goal for these guys. You can understand why they do what they do. So there is just a fundamental tension here at the core of this half of the sport, and until the incentives are better aligned, the velo/movement/max-effort training will persist, and so will the injuries. All that said, I’ll note once again that the Cubs have for a long time had pitching success with guys who are not known for having premium velocity, and you’ve gotta believe that at some point that – if it’s a real organizational “skill” – will have increasing value, both in terms of keeping your guys healthy, and also in terms of convincing pitchers you want to join you. Also? If there are rules changes that are designed to encourage pitchers to go deeper in games (which, in turn, is designed to support healthy training practices), maybe organizations like the Cubs will be in a better spot? Really interesting thread here from Mike Petriello about the value of catcher framing, and how its relativity to the rest of the league means it is getting harder and harder to be a “valuable” pitch-framer. Because it’s obviously a point of emphasis for all catchers for years and years now, the difference between the “average” framer and a “good” framer is much smaller. Petriello was ultimately making a Hall of Fame point, but it got me looking at last year’s data: although Miguel Amaya (-4.1) was 12th out of 18 catchers in framing last year (min. 800 innings caught), he was also right there in the meaty group of 12 of 18 catchers who were inside +/- 8 runs of league average. Just 10 years ago, there were just 7 such catchers … and a whopping 15 catchers at 8 runs or more! In other words, the difference between having a “good” or “bad” framer behind the plate used to be enormous. Like, two or three or four wins worth of difference! Now, you’re lucky if you can upgrade a win in that spot. If you were curious, Carson Kelly just missed the cutoff at 672.2 innings caught, and he was at +2.2. So, basically, the Cubs’ catching tandem is probably about average in framing, and even if they were to get much better or much worse, it wouldn’t make for as big of a difference as it would’ve 10 years ago.

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