If there was any indication last week was about to be different for fantasy gamers, Thursday night was our first clue.
Cooper Kupp was a dud. Deebo Samuel’s “squeaky wheel” turned out to be a broken one, limiting his and Jauan Jennings’ output. A few of our playmakers didn’t make plays. But afterward, the overall response I saw was one of hope. We’ve got other stars on our rosters who can have big days. There’s always a chance for a comeback. It’s not over until we’re through all the games.
And we’re not done yet.
Week 15 is in the books, and some of us are marching on to the next round of the playoffs. But our matchups aren’t getting easier. Injuries sidelined a few skill players last week. Poor performances will have us questioning other options. In either case, adding context to the top storylines should also give us some hope after a tense week of action.
QBs have two jobs: be healthy and be good
The proverb “a team is only as strong as its weakest link” can apply to football, but good units can sometimes overcome their limitations. For instance, RBs can overcome weak offensive lines through good vision and breakaway speed.
But if the problem is the QB, the effect spreads to the rest of the offense.
Let’s set aside the fact Kirk Cousins didn’t (couldn’t?) step into the throw shown above.
The arm strength concerns? Forget about them (for now).
The play-calling is what confuses me the most. When OC Zac Robinson came over from the Rams, we projected a pass-friendly offense that pulled all of the trendy efficiency levers to create windows for its skill players. Drake London would be their Cooper Kupp. It all looked good, in theory. Reality delivered us something slightly different.
Dropback Over Expectation Rate: -5.0% (Falcons), +4.0% (Rams)
Play-Action Rate: 14.5%, 29.8%
Pre-Snap Motion: 60.0%, 77.9%
Cousins went from executing passing concepts from under center at the highest rate in the league while playing for Minnesota (35.5%) to exclusively using shotgun in his first game with the Falcons. But even as the season unfolded, Atlanta’s focus shifted to its running game. Since Week 9, Cousins has averaged the sixth-fewest attempts per game on early downs (20.2). When he does throw in obvious passing situations, Cousins has had the sixth-longest distance to go to the sticks (7.9 yards). So, independent of whether his health is informing the playcalling or just an added complication, the inconsistency adds uncertainty to everyone attached to him.
Now, we have a different type of variance to consider.
Michael Penix Jr. has been named the Falcons’ starting quarterback moving forward.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 18, 2024
Benching Kirk Cousins isn’t much of a bombshell. If you throw nine picks to one TD over a five-game stretch, anyone would question your status as the starter. Just ask Will Levis. But the timing has my head cocked.
It’s Week 16, and Atlanta can still make the playoffs. With three games left, this is when they turn to their rookie QB? Well, at least Penix gets to face the Giants in his debut. Since losing a couple of key defenders, the G-Men are 21st in pressure rate while allowing the 10th-most passing yards per game. Accordingly, more time to work in the pocket should allow Penix to highlight some of his traits from college that made him a fit for this offense.
While Penix also likes to play out of shotgun formations, he used play-action concepts at one of the highest rates in the FBS during his final season. More importantly, he has the arm strength to push the ball downfield. Admittedly, it’s what’s made his results volatile relative to his classmates. However, he has a pass-catching corps to prop him up in his first game. And at least two should be in our starting lineups for Week 16.
Drake London’s 25.0% target share should look a bit more appealing in PPR leagues since Penix can throw deep and limit negative plays (8.3% pressure-to-sack ratio). Darnell Mooney (21.0% target share over his last six games) becomes a desperation FLEX play with his 13.4-yard aDOT. And Bijan Robinson (top-12 marks in rushing and target share) now has the floor and access to a ceiling to be a larger piece of championship rosters. With matchups against the Giants and Commanders over the next two weeks, the Atlanta skill guys become more viable options for the rest of the playoffs.
The stars who shined when we needed them
The first week of the playoffs coincided with us coming off another “bye-pocalypse.’ As I noted, heading into the weekend, getting some of our starters back would be like a hero returning at the low point of an action movie. Nico Collins dunked on the Dolphins for two scores. Lamar Jackson almost ran out of his pants while throwing for five scores. But both became a footnote soon after the Bills offense took the field.
Before I get into the Josh Allen superlatives, Bills’ Mafia, brace yourselves: Jackson should be the MVP this year.
The Ravens’ QB can boast top-two marks in EPA per dropback (Allen ranks third), rushing yards per game (Allen’s sixth) and total passing TDs (sixth). Meanwhile, Allen’s adjusted completion percentage is down from 2023. Many would also like to (conveniently) forget his first five games this season, where over half resulted in less than 200 passing yards. But, hey, like in fantasy football, all you need is a strong closing argument to pick up an accolade. And since Buffalo’s bye, there are few other QBs capable of securing a championship.
At 7.7 rushing attempts per game (third-most), Allen’s mobility negates any concerns we have about the Bills’ passing game. He’s averaging five rushing first downs per game. Anthony Richardson’s throwing for first downs just 6.5 times each week. And although the only reliable pass-catcher for fantasy attached to Allen is Khalil Shakir (+20.0% target share in seven of the last eight contests), at least they’re all healthy to enable more dominant performances from Allen in Weeks 16 and 17.
New England may have had an answer for Marvin Harrison Jr. on Sunday, but the likes of Keon Coleman and Mack Hollins on the perimeter and Dalton Kincaid and Shakir inside will have the Patriots in a blender. And after watching Brian Thomas Jr. cook the Jets on multiple in-breakers, I can see a route technician like Amari Cooper getting back into the mix to cement Allen’s MVP case.
However, if you don’t have Buffalo’s MVP on your roster, hopefully you’ve got Philadelphia’s star WR to keep your playoff chances alive.
Honestly, I never understood the “drama” between A.J. Brown and Jalen Hurts. If anything, Brown should be mad at Saquon Barkley. Because of Barkley’s 124.9-yard-per-week pace on the ground (he led the league), Hurts was only dropping back to pass 11.6 times a week in the second half (the fewest of any starter). Plus, the Eagles defense was holding opponents to 18.2 PPG (third-fewest). So, Brown had a couple of things working against him. But when Hurts did drop back to pass (and not scramble), his penchant for looking toward Brown was why we had him as a top-12 WR at the start of the season.
Target Share (after W6 return): 33.0% (1st among all WRs – min. 100 routes)
Air Yard Share: 49.0% (1st)
Receiving Yards per Game: 82.7 (4th)
Brown has just two games with a target share under 20.0% and five of his last nine games with over 50.0% of the team’s air yards. Even the results have been there, as his standard of 82 yards a week is greater than that of Justin Jefferson (80.8) and CeeDee Lamb (79.0). Regardless, everyone’s happy now, and fantasy managers should continue to stay that way throughout the rest of the playoffs.
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The Eagles have two divisional rematches to close out the playoffs. Brown had eight catches against the Commanders and should have no problem avoiding CB Marshon Lattimore. And he pummeled the Cowboys for 109 yards with injuries ravaging their defense. Philadelphia’s offense has at least four guys who can score on any given play. Brown’s workload should boost our confidence that he’ll be one of them over the next couple of weeks.
Who’s the best rookie WR?
Remember earlier when I laid out the full-season context for Jackson versus Allen in the MVP race?
I’m trying to be consistent here. I don’t want to be a prisoner of the moment. Except I just rewatched clips from the Jaguars’ game.
In my defense, my selection of Brian Thomas Jr. as the best of his class isn’t a vibes-only-based take. After Sunday, he leads all freshmen WRs in yards per route run (2.27), YAC per reception (6.8) and touchdowns (8). But those are just results. They reflect things that happened after he caught the ball. It’s the stuff he’s doing beforehand that has my eye.
Brian Thomas Jr. route chart. (Photo by Next Gen Stats)
If necessity is the mother of invention, then we could look back on Jacksonville’s injuries to their veteran WRs as a positive. Per NextGenStats, Thomas is not only running more routes but also different types. Over 60.0% of his targets have been on throws of 10 air yards or less. His slot rate has ticked up to 30.2% after spending the majority of his time on the outside with Christian Kirk on the interior. Subsequently, Thomas has been able to grow into the complete receiver most thought he could become.
Target share: 20.3% (Weeks 1-8), 25.9% (from Week 9 on)
Air Yard Share: 29.0%, 31.7%
Air Yards per Target: 12.6, 10.8
In the short term, Thomas is a high-end WR3. He’ll face the Raiders and Titans through the remainder of the fantasy playoffs, and neither has been able to hold a WR earning more than a 15.0% target share to less than double-digit PPR points in over a month. But let’s spin things forward even ...
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