Clemson and SMU provided a glimpse of how good they can be during their down-to-the-wire battle for the ACC championship in Charlotte 2 weeks ago.
Both also showed the flaws that have them playing on the road as underdogs in their College Football Playoff openers this Saturday.
Which version of each team shows up Saturday will go a long way toward determining whether they advance or leave their conference open to added criticism when 12th-seeded Clemson takes on No. 5 Texas and No. 11 SMU travels to No. 6 Penn State.
Here’s a look at what to expect from both matchups:
Commentator teams announced for inaugural 12-team @CFBPlayoff on ESPN, ABC & @TNTSportsUS ?️ t.co/h0yS206WQL pic.twitter.com/CZygclCAKq
— ESPN PR (@ESPNPR) December 8, 2024Clemson at Texas
The 12-5 matchup is famous for producing upsets during March Madness. There’s been at least 1 in 32 of the past 38 NCAA Tournaments and 53 overall since the event adopted its 64-team format in 1985.
And that’s not the only reason for the Longhorns, who are an 11.5-point favorite according to DraftKings sportsbook, to be on upset alert.
The SEC runner-up are 11-2 and the highest-seeded at-large team in the field. But they come into the Playoff with some serious questions surrounding a sputtering offense that has managed 20 points or fewer in 3 of their final 4 regular season games. While quarterback Quinn Ewers has taken most of the heat for that lack of production, a bigger problem has been an offensive line that’s allowed 28 sacks and was a big reason Texas was only able to muster 31 yards on the ground in its overtime loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.
Running the ball will be key for the Longhorns. Clemson ranked only 14th in the ACC against the run, allowing an average of 150.5 yards per game. A lot of those yards, however, have come from mobile quarterbacks, including South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers and SMU’s Kevin Jennings over the past 2 games.
The Tigers shouldn’t have to worry about Ewers hurting them with his legs. (Backup QB Arch Manning, however, could present problems if he plays.) Clemson stands a much better chance if they can contain Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue and force Ewers into becoming a 1-dimensional passer against a secondary that has recorded 15 interceptions this season.
Running the ball will also be important for Clemson. Leading rusher Phil Mafah has had 2 weeks to recover from a shoulder injury that limited his recent production, and top backup Jay Haynes is out with a leg injury suffered in the ACC title game. If Mafah isn’t close to 100%, it will put more pressure on Cade Klubnik to leader the passing and running game.
He’s shown he’s capable of doing that. But he has to avoid trying to do too much, as he did when Clemson’s offense began to bog down in the 4th quarter in the loss to South Carolina and the closer-than-it-should-have-been win against SMU. Like Ewers, he figures to have a much tougher go of things the more he’s forced to throw against a Texas defense that has allowed only 4 touchdown passes all year.
SMU at Penn State
A big part of the Mustangs’ success, at least since Kevin Jennings took over as their full-time quarterback against TCU on Sept. 21, has been their ability to start fast and play from ahead. They trailed for only a combined 6 minutes and 10 seconds in the 9 regular-season games Jennings started.
But against Clemson, 2 early turnovers dug them into a hole that forced them to catch up. That might not be a problem against the Nittany Lions, assuming they can avoid any more early big-game jitters. Penn State has been tied or trailing at halftime in 6 of its 13 games.
Including both losses.
While SMU has a lot to prove in this game after edging out perennial Playoff participant Alabama for the final at-large spot in the field, so does Penn State in general and coach James Franklin in particular. Franklin is just 3-19 against top-10 teams and 13-28 against the Top 25 during his time in Happy Valley. The Mustangs fall into the latter category at No. 11 in the final Playoff rankings.
Despite the disparity in national reputation, perception and opponents – along with the 8.5-point spread – these teams match up well statistically. SMU scores a hair more than Penn State at 38.5 ppg compared to 33.6; the Nittany Lions’ defense is holding opponents to just 16.4 per game, compared to 20.8 by the Mustangs. Beyond the Xs and Os, the outcome could end up coming down to external factors, including the weather and the NCAA’s decision to open up the transfer portal before the Playoff is decided. The forecast for Saturday’s game calls for a mostly cloudy day with temperatures in the 20s with a chance of snow the night before. It gets cold in Dallas, too, but conditions will be a decided advantage for Penn State, which also will be playing in front of 100,000+ fans.
Penn State backup QB Beau Pribula already announced he is entering the portal. That shouldn’t present a major problem as long as starter Drew Allar doesn’t get hurt. But because the Nittany Lions have often used Pribula in change-of-pace situations, especially in the running game where he’s rushed for 242 yards and 4 touchdowns, it could limit their ability to use certain situational packages.
Early thoughts on the ACC’s 2 first-round Playoff matchups Saturday Down South.
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