The big new rumor from the weekend was that the Chicago Cubs and Miami Marlins were working on a deal that would send lefty Jesus Luzardo to the Cubs for a prospect return that may include a significant positional prospect like Owen Caissie or James Triantos.
Bruce Levine was on 670 The Score this morning updating that story a little bit, so I’ll keep it on your radar:
"I think Luzardo is something that [the Cubs would] really like to get done here in the next few days." – @MLBBruceLevine on @670TheScore this morning.
— Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) December 16, 2024The comments came up within the context of what Levine believes the Cubs would like to do next, and Jed Hoyer’s comments that the Winter Meetings work was mostly about talking trades. In Levine’s view, the Cubs want to get trades done before moving more into free agency, and although we mostly think about a Cody Bellinger trade as the precursor to other movement, it’s possible a trade like this for a starting pitcher is a precursor, too.
Take all that together, and combine it with Levine’s original reporting about these trade talks, and you could see something coming together this week. At a minimum, he indicates the Cubs want that to happen.
Because of Jesus Luzard’s history of injuries – including a flexor strain and season-ending back injury last year – you could expect that any medical review stage of the trade talks, if it gets there, would be significant. That could be a roadblock to a deal actually getting done, and/or it could simply be the fulcrum upon which the trade return pivots. If it’s the latter, then you’d expect a protracted back-and-forth about appropriate value versus risk, and that ignores the possibility of the Marlins involving other teams. You also have all of this taking place against the backdrop of the Cubs wanting to execute a number of interconnected (financially) moves, and I think it’s probably just pretty complicated to get this one over the finish line.
That, in turn, is why phrasing like Levine’s makes a lot of sense to me. The Cubs may want to get this done, and may even be mostly on the same page with the Marlins, but plenty can scuttle it.
If you missed the earlier discussion of Luzardo and the desirability of a trade, the short version is that you fear the injuries, you like the true ace upside, and you don’t want the price to be extreme. You’re getting two arbitration years of a guy with the potential to front a rotation, but he’s only barely ever actually shown that ability in the big leagues for longer than a few healthy starts at a time. Trading for him is risking impact prospects against the small shot that you can keep him healthy and maybe even next-level him a little bit – getting an ace for two cheap-ish years. I don’t mind the swing, as you’re pretty much always going to have to bake in a lot of risk in some way when trying to land an ace, but I’d be really wary of seeing the Cubs give up a monster prospect return.
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