It must be bad, because Prince Andrew is ceasing all contact with yet another figure whose public face may have cloaked sinister purposes.
A senior alleged Chinese spy befriended Prince Andrew and – in the way of Andrew’s unfortunate friendships with the late exploiter and trafficker of young women, Jeffrey Epstein and accomplice, Ghislaine Maxwell – was invited to palace events. Worse, he was told he could represent the prince when dealing with prospective investors. Got to hand it to Andrew: he is one of the UK’s most productive source of plots for TV dramas.
We don’t know whether Andrew’s interest was aimed at personal gain in his endlessly difficult financial circumstances, or whether, having been removed from the role of trade envoy, he wanted to shore up his place in the royal “firm” by hosting a guest deemed interesting (for which read, rich and connected) enough to be photographed at social events with Theresa May and David Cameron.
While the Duke could not have known if his acquaintance had intense links to China’s deep state, the story lays bare how an open society, intent on making money out of the relationship with the massive Chinese market, can become so complacent that this pratfall could occur.
Having written about intelligence gathering by Russia and East Germany in and since the Cold War, it leaps out to me that Beijing had clear intent for the story to emerge.
The intelligence services and a police operation to gather evidence had barred the alleged spy from entering the country in 2021. Our own closed justice system in such matters did not reveal the saga. It was the decision by the man accused to take his case to an immigration appeal which has brought this into the public domain.
H6, as he has been dubbed, had zero chance of being readmitted and the “appeal” would not have been brought without Beijing seeing utility in the story coming out to add to the embarrassment of the UK.
This now leaves the Labour government, keen to warm up relations with China after much swithering in the Tory years, in a difficult spot. The Cameron/Osborne government, like Starmer, sought to boost trust and trade with a full-honours visit by President Xi in 2015. The Chinese President visited Huawei’s UK headquarters as an example of the joys of co-operation, only for the company to since be accused of being a front for Beijing. It was then phased out of supplying the 5G network on cyber-security grounds “as swiftly as possible” and the company deemed a “high risk vendor” to the telecoms infrastructure.
This leaves more problems for the Government than it has yet been frank about. Home Secretary Yvette Cooper says the correct approach to China is a “complex arrangement” because it balances security concerns with working together on its economy.
Behind the scenes, the Starmer government has been trying to move the conversation on China to a pragmatic one about supplies for its green technology pivot and attempts to leverage an advantage over Europe’s tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.
On the edge of the recent G20, Starmer met Xi with the message that he hoped for a good relationship with no “surprises” (an obvious protest at this and other hostile acts by China, couched in the softest of languages). The UK does need to keep its trading relationship with China robust. But the questions about security are also pressing.
China knows Prince Andrew is the weakest and most gullible royal
Read MoreFrom political targeting to Beijing-backed cyber attacks which affected the Electoral Commission’s infrastructure in 2021-22 to a university sector which has become overly dependent on Chinese students to balance the books, Britain’s desire to be a global entrepot needs a reality check on how it can be abused.
That means tougher calculations, like how many Chinese graduates study sensitive subjects at post-graduate levels, with intelligence, technology or defence applications.
It’s a terrible state of affairs for many Chinese nationals who are simply enjoying a break from the security state back home. But there’s now enough evidence to show that the net here needs to tighten and that openness has been exploited – and will be again as the international security outlook darkens.
The lesson on “H6” is that Prince Andrew was a dupe, which is not exactly news. But a warning to more savvy political leaders: the balance of financial gain from co-operation with China to the risks posed at home is rarely easy to calculate.
But one thing is obvious, naiveté tends to reap humiliation, served in very large portions. Starmer should be aware that in dealings with the realm of Xi, there will always be some bad surprises in store.
Anne McElvoy is executive editor at POLITICO host of the Power Play podcast.
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