But expectations for tangible progress remain low, and negotiations could continue for months, experts have said.
US President Donald Trump has said that no significant progress in the peace tasks can happen before he meets his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.
“I don’t believe anything’s going to happen, whether you like it or not, until he and I get together,” he added. “But we’re going to have to get it solved because too many people are dying.”
Two rounds of negotiations are scheduled to take place in Istanbul on Friday, though hopes for any significant breakthroughs remain minimal.
After the first meeting, the Russian and Ukrainian negotiating teams will join Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. Rubio is not expected to take part in the second meeting.
The US administration realizes European allies have to be engaged in talks about ending the Ukraine war, experts say (Photo: Armend Nimani/AFP)The Russian side, led by Putin aide Vladimir Medinsky, has said they possess the necessary experience and authorization by the president, but critics contend that any meaningful decisions will ultimately rest with higher authorities –namely Putin himself.
“It is significant that the two sides are speaking to each other again directly. And that is certainly the result of what President Trump has done over the last couple of months. And it’s clear that Putin wants to negotiate directly with Trump himself.
Trump secures a ceasefire – but will it hold?
The American side has said that reaching a ceasefire as a first step in the negotiations is crucial, by there could be “different variants” of how a ceasefire can look, Lough said.
However, “we know from previous times, after 2014-2015, that you can have ceasefire arrangements, but they get violated. And there’s a very bad history there, particularly on the Russian side,” Lough added, referencing Moscow’s initial invasion of eastern Ukraine and the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.
Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov and Foreign Affairs Serhii Kyslytsya attend one of the negotiations at the Turkish Presidential office Dolmabahce in Istanbul. (Photo: AFP/Getty Images)Zelensky has suggested a buffer zone along the eastern border aimed at preventing future incursions from Russia.
“A lot is going to depend on the arrangements around that potential ceasefire to see where it can hold or not,” Lough said.
“You’ve got to look at that scenario, because that would undoubtedly spill over into the diplomatic process and possibly interrupt it,” Lough said.
Putin may be trying to keep “both options open”, he said.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said that US has low expectations that the Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul will lead to a breakthrough (Photo: Arda Kucukkaya/Anadolu/Getty Images)“So you can see this is going to be a very difficult and complex negotiation. And even if there was goodwill on both sides, it’s going to take, I think, several months.”
War ‘much more complicated’ than US originally thought
“I’ll put it this way. I think the Americans understand that they cannot ignore the Europeans in their efforts to end this war, that European security interests are impacted by the war and will be impacted by its outcome. So the Europeans have to be involved.”
Meetings part of Ukraine peace negotiations begin in Istanbul, Turkey on May 15, 2025 (Photo: Ukraine Ministry of Foreign Affairs/Anadolu/Getty Images)
Even if the fighting stops, Ukraine and European allies will continue boosting their defences to prevent further aggression from Russia.
Therefore, the formation of the Coalition of the Willing, and the presence of Starmer, Macron, as well as Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Kyiv “was quite significant”, Lough said. “And the fact they spoke to Trump, that’s important.”
On Saturday, the major European powers proposed an unconditional 30-day Ukraine ceasefire with the backing of the US president. In response, Putin proposed direct talks without agreeing to a truce.
“I don’t see any alternative to that, because Putin wants to have this conversation with the US, and Trump is prepared to have that conversation.”
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