As the 2024-25 season nears its conclusion, we look at who can still qualify for next season’s Champions League from Germany, France, Italy and Spain.
We’ve almost reached the end of the 2024-25 season, with big things being decided all over Europe.
In England, the only remaining story to conclude is around who will qualify for next season’s UEFA Champions League, which we’ve been covering in our regular blog.
However, what of Europe’s other best leagues? Which teams will be competing on the biggest stage in club football in 2025-26?
Here, we look at the state of play in the Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Serie A and La Liga in terms of Champions League qualification, while also seeing what the Opta supercomputer has to say on matters.
GermanyBundesliga
Already qualified for UCL: Bayern Munich, Bayer LeverkusenCould still qualify (two places remaining): Eintracht Frankfurt, Freiburg, Borussia Dortmund
It promises to be a tense final day in Germany’s top flight on Saturday, particularly in Freiburg.
Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen have already sealed two of the four Champions League places. Three teams are vying for the other pair, and two of them face off on the final day on Saturday.
Freiburg in fourth host Eintracht Frankfurt in third, with two points separating them. Hoping to take advantage are Borussia Dortmund, who are at home to already-relegated Holstein Kiel. A win for Niko Kovac’s men will be enough as long as Freiburg do not win, though even if they do, Dortmund will leapfrog Eintracht with a three-goal swing. A draw will also be enough for Dortmund if Freiburg lose.
The Opta supercomputer gives Eintracht a 70.1% chance of sealing a Champions League place, with Freiburg making it in 46.7% of simulations. Due to the likelihood of a win being enough for Dortmund, they are actually the favourites with the supercomputer, sneaking into the top four in 83.2% of sims.
RB Leipzig had a disappointing Champions League campaign this season, losing seven of their eight games (W1) and finishing 32nd out of 36 teams in the league phase. They won’t be back in the competition next season either, with their 0-0 draw at Werder Bremen last weekend meaning the best they can do is pip Mainz to sixth and claim a Europa League spot.
Stuttgart finished 26th in the league phase of this season’s Champions League (W3 D1 L4) and also won’t be back next season. They can only finish as high as eighth in the Bundesliga on the last day, though will still hope they can get into the Europa League by beating third-tier Arminia Bielefeld in the DFB-Pokal final on 24 May.
FranceLigue 1
Already qualified for UCL: Paris Saint-Germain, Marseille, MonacoCould still qualify (one place remaining): Nice, Lille, Strasbourg, Lyon
Paris Saint-Germain still have an interest in this season’s competition as they prepare to face Inter in the final in Munich, and they’ll certainly be back in it again next season after easing to the Ligue 1 title.
The penultimate matchday of the season in France’s top tier saw Marseille and Monaco beat Le Havre and Lyon respectively to secure their places in the top three.
There is still one spot left to be fought over by four clubs, though whoever claims it will have to start their Champions League campaign in the third qualifying round,
Nice are one of three teams level on 57 points but have the advantage over Lille and Strasbourg on goal difference. They host Brest on Saturday, knowing a win will almost certainly be enough.
Lille are at home to Reims, hoping to take advantage of any slip-up, or trying to win by enough goals to make Nice panic. Strasbourg, who are at home to Le Havre, are in the same position of needing the teams above them to drop points.
Should all three of those teams lose, though, Lyon could nip in with a win at home to Angers.
The Opta supercomputer gives Nice the biggest chance of securing a top-four finish, with Franck Haise’s side sealing fourth in 64.2% of simulations, ahead of Lille (24.5%), Strasbourg (10.9%) and Lyon (0.5%).
ItalySerie A
Already qualified for UCL: Napoli, Internazionale, AtalantaCould still qualify (one place remaining): Juventus, Lazio, Roma, Bologna, Milan, Fiorentina
With two matchdays remaining in Serie A, there is just one more Champions League place to play for but six teams who can mathematically claim it.
Napoli, Inter and Atalanta are already confirmed in the top three, with Juventus currently sitting in fourth spot on 64 points.
Behind the Bianconeri are Lazio (64 points), Roma (63), recently crowned Coppa Italia winners Bologna (62), Milan (60) and Fiorentina (59).
Juve’s goal difference is seven better than Lazio’s and so two wins from their final two games should be enough for Igor Tudor’s men. They face Udinese at home before travelling to Venezia on the final day, while Lazio have a tricky trip to title-chasing Inter at the weekend, followed by a home game with Lecce.
Roma host Milan before heading to Torino, while Bologna are away to Fiorentina before hosting Genoa.
In the unlikely event enough teams ahead of them slip up, Milan could take advantage but will surely need to beat both Roma (away) and Monza (home), while Fiorentina – without a victory in their last four games – definitely need to win their final two matches at home to Bologna and at Udinese, also hoping for a lot of favours from elsewhere.
The Opta supercomputer makes Juventus the heavy favourites to clinch fourth, doing so in 64.2% of simulations, ahead of Roma (16.7%), Lazio (12.7%), Bologna (6%), Milan (0.4%) and Fiorentina (0.1%).
SpainLa Liga
Already qualified for UCL: Barcelona, Real Madrid, Atlético Madrid, Athletic ClubCould still qualify (one place remaining): Villarreal, Real Betis
Like the Premier League, the top five in Spain will receive a spot in the league phase of next season’s Champions League, and like Italy, all but one of the places are already decided.
Barcelona secured their 28th La Liga title with a 2-0 win at Espanyol on Thursday, while Real Madrid, Atlético Madrid and Athletic Club have also mathematically sealed a top-five place.
With two matchdays left, the final spot will likely be taken by Villarreal, who have a five-point lead over Real Betis in sixth. However, the Yellow Submarine could be made to sweat for it as they travel to Barcelona this weekend. A defeat there coupled with a win for Betis would leave the Andalusian side needing a favour from bitter rivals Sevilla on the final day as they travel to La Ceràmica.
Betis have their work cut out, though. The UEFA Conference League finalists must win at Atlético Madrid on Sunday, before also taking all three points at home to Valencia a week later while hoping Villarreal don’t win either of their remaining fixtures. Their head-to-head record this season is level, meaning it’ll come down to goal difference if they finish on the same points; Villarreal (+17) currently have a seven-goal advantage on Betis (+10).
The Opta supercomputer sees Villarreal secure a Champions League spot in 98.4% of simulations, with Real Betis only managing to overtake them in the remaining 1.6%.
Last season’s surprise package Girona, who finished 33rd in the league phase of the Champions League this term, have understandably struggled after losing some key players last summer. They sit 13th in La Liga after 36 games, mathematically unable to secure European football again for next season but at least safe from relegation following a tense few weeks.
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The Race for Champions League Qualification Across Europe’s Other Top Leagues Opta Analyst.
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