“Wales will have the first Reform UK government.”
That is the bold claim of David Thomas, a Reform UK councillor in Torfaen, Wales, who spent six weeks on the ground in Runcorn and Helsby running the canvassing which delivered Nigel Farage’s party its seismic by-election victory.
“I’m absolutely more confident now than I was before, that we will take the Senedd,” he added.
Having returned home, Thomas is fervent about Reform’s chances of repeating the success across the border in 2026.
“This is a political revolution in Wales. And you will – I promise you – see in 2026 the first Reform UK government,” the tells The i Paper.
His confidence is understandable after last week’s remarkable results in England. As well as ousting Labour in Runcorn, overturning a majority of 14,696 to win by a narrow six votes, Reform won two mayoralties and 10 county councils – delivering a bloody nose also to the Tories in the process.
The party is now serious about government, and winning the next election. And with the next major test coming in May 2026 when the Senned – the Welsh Parliament – will be up before the jury of the electorate.
The race is on
It’s a big challenge though. Wales has been run by Labour ever since devolution in 1999 – sometimes with the help of the Liberal Democrats and Plaid – and Reform are at a standing start with no seats (although its predecessor Ukip had seven of the 60 seats between 2016 and 2021.)
If the party were to come first – something which pollsters say is possible – and subsequently formed a government, Farage would acquire levers of power which he has so far only dreamed about in his long political career.
A rout for Labour in their traditional Welsh heartlands would also send shockwaves through Sir Keir Starmer’s struggling party and perhaps spell the end of the UK’s century of two-party politics. While a poor result for the Conservatives could plunge Kemi Badenoch’s leadership into terminal crisis.
As polls currently stand, things look dire for both Labour and the Tories.
A YouGov poll at the end of April on voting intention for the Senedd put the Welsh nationalists Plaid Cymru on 30 per cent, Reform on 25 per cent, Labour on 18 per cent and the Tories on 13 per cent.
However, Thomas claims that canvassing data collected by Reform shows that the polling is understating his party’s level of support.
And, as a former Labour councillor who quit to become independent and then joined Reform, his personal journey is exactly what scares Labour – traditional voters leaving in their droves to get behind Farage.
“Up and down the country, in South Wales to North Wales, we’re still cracking data,” he says. “Polls see us possible favourites, but on the doorstep, we are the favourites.”
He says that the campaigning experience which Reform picked up in Runcorn and the local elections will be redeployed in Wales.
“People should be afraid of Reform now, because we’re constantly learning,” he says.
“By the time the Senedd elections come around we’ll be a formidable force.”
No policies or candidates
Reform does not have detailed policies for Wales yet. It does not have Senedd candidates or even a Welsh leader.
As with the national party, Farage exerts an iron grip on everything. When The i Paper asked a Reform Wales insider who the key players were in the country, they replied: “There aren’t any… Nigel’s been clear to say that will all follow once the locals are out of the way.”
Thomas says the pitch to voters will be “focusing on immigration, it’ll be focusing on total reform and waste management in the NHS”.
Labour have been in power in Wales since the dawn of devolution in 1999, and Reform are eager to lay a charge of wasteful spending at the party’s door.
Specifically, Reform is attacking Labour’s decision to push through electoral reform which will introduce a more proportional system for 2026 and expand the size of the Senedd from 60 members to 90.
“Senedd expansion, we’re totally against that, that’s between £100m and £120m over eight years,” Thomas says.
Reform party leader Nigel Farage after the party’s win in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election (Photo: Phil Noble/Reuters)Reform also want to close the Welsh government’s 20 overseas offices and is promising in Thomas’s words “to put a Doge into the Senedd” – a reference to Elon Musk’s cost-cutting Department of Government Efficiency, which Reform has already vowed to roll out across their newly won English councils.
While Labour has been in government in Cardiff since 1999 it has never held an outright majority. By moving to a more proportional system it will become even more difficult for one party to win a majority.
However, Thomas insists Reform will not cut deals with other parties. “I can guarantee you that we won’t be working with anyone,” he says. “Everyone says ‘it’s a tall order for you to take overall control’. Like I said, these polls look good, are good, but they don’t completely represent what’s happening on the doorstep.”
That said, Farage rowed back on similar claims before the English local elections, telling The i Paper the party would be a “grown up” when it came to coalitions.
Reform won’t have it all their own way
As for how Reform’s opponents will respond, Labour will draw attention to Farage’s long history of voicing support for an insurance-based model for the NHS.
Even in the last couple of weeks he has said, “I do not want it funded through general taxation. It doesn’t work” (although he added it should remain “free at the point of delivery”).
Thomas brushes it off. “Labour will do their usual. They’ll weaponise the NHS,” he says. “‘Oh, if you don’t vote for us, you’re going to lose it, Reform will privatise it.’ Absolute nonsense.”
Opponents also take issue with Reform’s lack of a Welsh leader and accuse it of being policy light. Thomas says “there are plans for a Welsh leader” but insists voters are unbothered.
Reform will use Labour’s long incumbency against it. Thomas says voters “know they can’t trust Labour” after “26 years of nonsense, 26 years of waste”. As for the Tories, he says bluntly: “We’ll wipe them out of Wales.”
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While Thomas and Reform would be expected to talk up their chances, Welsh observers with no affiliation to Farage also predict he is heading for a breakthrough.
A former Tory adviser who knows Welsh politics well says that last week’s by-election is ominous.
“Runcorn is only over the border from North Wales. The people that live in Runcorn and north-east Wales are the same… just translate [the election result] across north-east Wales, because that’s exactly what will happen.”
The ex-adviser also thinks that current polls are underplaying Reform’s strength.
“If the Welsh election had been last week, Reform would have been the first minister,” they say. “I would absolutely describe what’s coming in Wales as an avalanche now.”
“I absolutely can see a collapse in the Labour vote. Like we’ve never seen in a hundred years.”
Welsh Labour versus UK Labour versus Plaid
Of course, the election is still a year away with everything to play for.
For one thing, it is Plaid which YouGov put in the lead, and the party has ruled out working with Reform.
Plaid has been toning down some of its nationalist agenda to broaden its appeal – Rhun ap Iorweth, its leader, recently said he would not hold an independence referendum in the first term of a Plaid-led government.
Thomas thinks the polls need to catch up with feeling on the ground. “There’s no talk on the doorstep about Plaid Cymru leading the Senedd,” he claims.
The ex-Tory adviser meanwhile predicts that Plaid will tack back to its traditional comfort zone as polling day approaches.
“Plaid are trying to be a bit more less nationalist. But you watch as you get close to the election, they will become more and more nationalistic.
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“It’ll end up being a do you support Wales, if so you support Plaid, if it’s anyone else, you’re going to vote Reform, so Labour and the Conservatives get squeezed.”
As for Wales’ supposed natural party of government, Huw Irranca-Davies, Wales’ deputy first minister, tells The i Paper that Labour has “a heck of a battle ahead of us” but insists his party can turn the polls around.
“There are three parties now, jostling to have the prime position in the Senedd after 2026,” he says, admitting that along with Plaid, Reform is “a real threat”.
While there is talk of Labour being squeezed in a pincer movement by Plaid and Reform, Irranca-Davies wants to turn it around by framing Labour as the party of unity, in tune with deep Welsh values of social contract and solidarity dating back to titans like Nye Bevan and beyond.
“We will be very firm on the message that Reform is not a party of Wales… [it] is fomenting its offer on the politics of disenchantment and division,” he says.
Another tactic of Welsh Labour is to distance itself from Starmer’s outfit. Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan this week criticised the decision to cut winter fuel payments, calling for a rethink. The issue is widely credited as becoming toxic for Labour with it constantly coming up on the doorstep in Runcorn.
She also called on the government to “respect” devolution.
Wales’ Labour First Minister Eluned Morgan has sought to challenge the Westminster government (Photo: Andy Buchanan/AFP)“That means that the UK government should never act in devolved areas without Welsh government consent,” she said. “We’re not happy that this is continuing under Labour.”
One Welsh politics insider claims that Morgan and the Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens are “basically on non-speaking terms”.
Having dominated Welsh politics for more than a century, Labour is in the fight of its life, but Irranca-Davies says the party will draw strength from its history.
“We’ve faced many battles over many years and many generations,” he says.
“It will be a defining election that will set the future direction for the next generation.”
But – can Reform run a nation?
Could anything derail the Farage train hurtling across the Welsh border? Some commentators have predicted that Reform could be “found out” in local government if they make a mess of their newly acquired councils.
But the ex-Tory adviser thinks there is not enough time for a serious implosion before next May. “It’s not a problem for the Senedd elections next year. Because, in reality, you’re in the campaign in six months’ time,” they say.
However, they predict that Reform could well run into difficulty if they do take the Welsh government.
“If they do really, really well in Wales, and then all of a sudden public services don’t turn around, all of a sudden they don’t cut spending, people will just turn around and say ‘you can’t even run Wales mate’. And so I think it’s a problem in 2029 for Reform.”
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