Super Bowl LIX is finally here.
At 6:30 p.m. ET on Sunday night (FOX), the Kansas City Chiefs kick off against the Philadelphia Eagles in search of a historic 3-peat. Below, you’ll find 5 Super Bowl DFS picks to consider for the game. Each of them can be found within the Sleeper app. Use our exclusive Sleeper promo code SOUTHXL to unlock a sign-up offer that scores you $55 in bonus entries when you play your first $5 contest.
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Kansas City TE Travis Kelce higher than 6.5 receptions
In the NFC Championship, Washington tight end Zach Ertz caught 11 of his 16 targets for 104 yards against the Eagles defense. It continued a trend of opposing slot options finding success against an Eagles secondary that wants to keep things in front of them and force teams to drive the ball methodically. Kansas City should have no issue moving the ball that way with Kelce — a reliable underneath option. Kelce has 40 receptions out of the slot this season for Kansas City and the Eagles, according to PFF, are giving up 7.5 receptions a game to slot receivers this season, one of the highest marks in the NFL. Kelce had a monster day in the divisional round, catching 7 of his 8 targets for 117 yards. He was quiet against Buffalo but this is a better matchup. One of the best tight ends in the modern era, Kelce should have at least one more big game left in him.
Philadelphia WR AJ Brown higher than 59.5 receiving yards
Brown was held in check during Philadelphia’s first 2 playoff games before exploding for 96 yards and a score on 6 receptions in the NFC Championship. He’s one of the most electric receivers in the NFL — 5 receptions of at least 40 yards this season, sixth in the league — and Sleeper is offering a discount on his yardage total that makes the number an attractive add to my ticket. Per PFF, Brown has been the best receiver in the NFL against man coverage this season and he’s averaging an NFL-best 4.04 yards per route run against man coverage. The Chiefs love to play man under Steve Spagnuolo, particularly in the postseason. Whether Brown is breaking loose for 1 or 2 explosive plays, or he’s seeing an uptick in targets because Philadelphia is trying to catch up, I like Brown’s yardage total here.
Kansas City edge Georgia Karlaftis higher than 3.5 total tackles
The 3rd-year man out of Purdue is going to be on the field a ton against a Philadelphia offense that sees opposing defensive linemen pile up the tackles. Only 3 edge players in the NFL this season have seen more snaps than Karlaftis, who averages 53 a game. In the regular season, he was top-10 in defensive snaps played despite missing a game. Against Houston in the divisional round, the 6-foot-4 end had 5 tackles and 3 sacks. In the AFC Championship against Buffalo, he had 4 tackles. Per PFF, Philadelphia allows 20.1 tackles per game to opposing defensive linemen, which is the highest mark of any team in the NFL. And if the game script puts Philadelphia into obvious passing situations, Karlaftis might even be able to pick up a sack or 2.
Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts higher than 39.5 rushing yards
In the regular season, Hurts averaged 42 rushing yards per game. Through the Eagles’ first 3 playoff games, Hurts averaged 40.7 rushing yards per game. The last time Hurts faced Kansas City in the postseason, he ran for 70 yards and 3 touchdowns on 15 carries. Maybe Kansas City has a better plan to slow the mobile quarterback down this time, but if it does, it has yet to use that plan on anyone else. The Chiefs’ defense has allowed 5 yards per carry and 16 explosive rushing plays to opposing quarterbacks this season. They rank among the worst teams in the NFL in yards per game and explosive runs allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson (122), Josh Allen (55), Russell Wilson (55), and Bo Nix (42) all cleared this number against the Chiefs defense.
Kansas City WR Xavier Worthy higher than 67.5 rushing + receiving yards
Since Hollywood Brown’s return to the lineup, Kansas City has given Worthy a few more carries on designed sweeps and reverses. And with Isiah Pacheco’s shaky play of late, Kansas City will need something from someone else in its ground game. A big run from Worthy or a couple of splash receptions can get him to this number fairly quickly. Worthy caught 6 passes for 85 yards against the Bills. It was his seventh straight game with at least 5 receptions, as he has grown into an important part of Kansas City’s offense over the second half of his rookie season. Worthy has at least 75 scrimmage yards in 4 of his last 5 games as well. Though the Eagles have a stout secondary, they’ve been liable to give up an explosive here and there. With at least 1 reception of 20-plus yards in each of his last 3 appearances, and at least 10 rushing yards in 4 of his last 5 appearances, Worthy has several paths to hitting this number.
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Super Bowl 59 DFS Picks: Top Sleeper plays for Chiefs vs. Eagles Saturday Down South.
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