Up first is today's Bank of Canada decision. The market is fully priced for a rate cut today and there is some talk about a surprise 50 bps move, though that's an extreme outlier from my perspective.
Beyond that, Saturday is Trump's supposed day to put 25% tariffs on all goods from Canada and Mexico plus 10% on China. The market isn't priced for that threat as it believes he's bluffing. I'd note that the Saturday deadline is also instructive as it could allow him to announce something and then walk it back before Monday markets, similar to what happened with Colombia.
Technically, the picture is more constructive as all this worrisome news hasn't led to a breakout, though it's not far off.
It's also worth noting how aggressively Colombian markets have rallied strongly with the tariff threat passed.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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