Sunday’s 2025 Concacaf Gold Cup final pits the two biggest hitters of the region against one another in Houston, Texas. We preview the clash with our United States vs Mexico prediction.
United States vs Mexico Stats: The Key Insights
The United States are the slight favourites for this final, winning the 2025 Concacaf Gold Cup in 52.0% of pre-match Opta supercomputer simulations. Reigning champions Mexico are looking to seal their 10th Concacaf Gold Cup title. The USMNT have not lost any of their last six games against Mexico on US soil (W5 D1), with an aggregate score of 12-1 in these matches.It’s hardly a shock that these two sides have reached the final – seven of the previous 17 finals in the Gold Cup era (since 1991) have been between Mexico and the United States.
Mexico have won five of those seven finals versus the US and have a record nine titles overall in the competition. The United States have won the second-most Gold Cup titles (7) but have appeared in one more final (13) than Mexico (12) including this clash in the NRG Stadium. In fact, the last time that the US lost a Gold Cup match (excluding penalty shootouts) was the 2019 final versus Mexico (1-0).
Mexico are the team to beat as current defending champions, having won the 2023 edition of the tournament against Panama. They then added the 2024–25 Concacaf Nations League to their trophy cabinet after beating the same opponents earlier this year.
Javier Aguirre’s side haven’t conceded a single goal in their last four games at the tournament, since their opening 3-2 victory over the Dominican Republic. They have faced 18 shots in those four matches, but only three have found the target. Amazingly, despite playing more matches than all but three other sides at the tournament, Mexico have conceded shots worth the lowest xG (1.39) overall. Only Canada have conceded as few goals as them (2).
The defeated Honduras 1-0 in the semi-finals, with legendary forward Raúl Jiménez scoring the only goal. With nine goals at the Concacaf Gold Cup, spread over three tournaments, Jiménez needs one more to become just the eighth player to reach double figures in the competition’s history.
The United States came into this tournament in terrible form. Knocked out by Panama in the Concacaf Nations League semi-final, they then lost the third-place play-off to Canada before pre-tournament friendly defeats to Turkey and Switzerland – the latter a 4-0 loss with all four goals conceded inside 36 minutes. It was their worst run of results since losing five in a row in 2007, but Mauricio Pochettino’s side have found form at the right time.
Unlike Mexico, who have been at near full-strength for this tournament, the US have been without many of their most established stars.
Christian Pulisic ruled himself out of the Gold Cup citing that he needed rest before the new domestic season, while players such as Gio Reyna, Weston McKennie and Tim Weah all play for clubs participating in the FIFA Club World Cup. Sergiño Dest and Antonee Robinson are absent through injury.
Despite this, the USMNT have proved they have goals spread throughout their team. With seven different goalscorers so far, they have more unique goalscorers than any other team at this tournament.
Diego Luna was their hero in the semi-final, scoring both of their goals in the 2-1 victory over Guatemala to add to his strike in the quarter-final against Costa Rica. He’s level on three goals with Malik Tillman, who scored all his in the group stage.
Pochettino will hope that this final goes better than his only previous encounter with Mexico as a coach. In October 2024, USA lost 2-0 in a friendly in Mexico and attempted just one shot on target, which didn’t come until the 79th minute. Jiménez was a thorn in the American side that day, scoring the opening goal before assisting the second for César Huerta just after half-time.
United States vs Mexico Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is predicting this final will be tight and it’s a close one to call. However, the USA become the 2025 Concacaf Gold Cup champions in 52.0% of the 10,000 tournament simulations, with Mexico winning in the other 48.0% of sims.
With the projections so close, there’s a real chance of this final going to extra-time and penalties – the supercomputer predicts the chance of a draw inside 90 minutes is 25.8%.
United States vs Mexico Squads
United States
Matt Turner, John Tolkin, Chris Richards, Tyler Adams, Walker Zimmerman, Jack McGlynn, Quinn Sullivan, Sebastian Berhalter, Damion Downs, Diego Luna, Brenden Aaronson, Miles Robinson, Tim Ream, Luca de la Torre, Johnny Cardoso, Alex Freeman, Malik Tillman, Maximilian Arfsten, Haji Wright, Nathan Harriel, Paxten Aaronson, Mark McKenzie, Brian White, Patrick Agyemang, Matt Freese, Chris Brady.
Head Coach: Mauricio Pochettino
Mexico
Luis Malagón, Jorge Sánchez, César Montes, Edson Álvarez, Johan Vásquez, Érik Lira, Gilberto Mora, Carlos Rodríguez, Raúl Jiménez, Alexis Vega, Santiago Giménez, Raúl Rangel, Guillermo Ochoa, Marcel Ruiz, Israel Reyes, Julián Quiñones, Orbelín Pineda, Ángel Sepulveda, Jesús Orozco, Efraín Álvarez, César Huerta, Julián Araujo, Jesús Gallardo, Luis Chávez, Roberto Alvarado, Mateo Chávez.
Head Coach: Javier Aguirre
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United States vs Mexico Prediction: Concacaf Gold Cup Final Preview Opta Analyst.
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