We look ahead to the action in Group D at Women’s Euro 2025, assessing the Opta supercomputer predictions for England, France, the Netherlands and Wales.
Three of the six favourites to win the tournament, according to the Opta supercomputer, will compete in Group D, which features England, France, the Netherlands and debutants Wales.
England come into the tournament as defending champions, having won Euro 2022 on home soil, beating Germany 2-1 in the final at Wembley Stadium after extra-time. The Lionesses are second favourites to retain their crown, doing so in 16.3% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-tournament simulations.
Sarina Wiegman’s side have an excellent recent record in major tournaments, following up that Euros success by reaching the final of the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup, where they were beaten 1-0 by Spain.
England also lost to Spain 2-1 in their last game, the final group match of their UEFA Nations League campaign, though did enjoy big victories over Belgium (5-0) and Portugal (6-0) in recent outings.
It wasn’t ideal preparation for the tournament when goalkeeper Mary Earps suddenly announced her retirement from international football. Earps prevented over five goals more than expected at Euro 2022 according to Opta’s expected goals on target model (7.3 xGOT, 2 conceded – +5.3), while also having the best save rate of any goalkeeper at the tournament (88.2%).
Chelsea’s Hannah Hampton will step in as England’s new number one. She kept the joint most clean sheets in the Women’s Super League last season, alongside Manchester United’s Phallon Tullis-Joyce (13).
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3 days ago Chloe HorswillBeth Mead will likely be key to any England hopes of success, as she was three years ago. The Arsenal star was joint top scorer at Euro 2022 with six goals, while she also claimed the most assists for the tournament with four. She missed out on the 2023 World Cup through injury but has 21 goal involvements for England since August 2024, more than four times any of her teammates in the same period. If she can score five goals in this tournament, Mead will break the record for most goals at European Championships, currently shared by German pair Inka Grings and Birgit Prinz (10).
England will be aiming to become only the second nation to win the Women’s Euros in back-to-back editions after Germany, who won six in a row between 1995 and 2013, and two in a row between 1989 and 1991 (one as West Germany).
The defending champions have never failed to progress from the group stage of the Women’s Euros, though the last two have been knocked out in the quarter-finals after the first 10 all reached at least the semis.
The Lionesses will feel confident of at least making the knockouts, doing so in 73.3% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations. They have also not lost a group game at a Women’s Euros since a 3-0 loss to France on Matchday 3 of Euro 2013, with their run of 14 straight group-stage wins at major tournaments (World Cup/Euros) the longest ever by a European nation.
France will have a chance to best England in a Euros group stage again when they meet on Matchday 1.
Both teams recorded a 2-1 away win apiece in their two qualifying meetings before this tournament.
Laurent Bonadei’s side will be hoping to improve on their performance three years ago when they reached the semi-finals at Euro 2022, before being knocked out by Germany 2-1 at Stadium MK.
Les Bleues have played in more major tournaments (World Cup/Euros) without ever reaching a final than any other European nation (12), despite making it out of the group in each of their last eight major tournament appearances.
Captain Wendie Renard and all-time leading goalscorer Eugenie Le Sommer were surprisingly left out of Bonadei’s squad for Euro 2025, with the manager explaining: “As Einstein said: ‘Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.’ I want different results for this team so I have gone with a different selection.”
France reached the quarter-finals in 71.0% of the supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations and are third favourites to lift the trophy for the first time, doing so in 15.3% of sims.
group-by-group previews:
Women’s Euro 2025Women’s Euro 2025 Groups: The Opta Predictions
1 hour ago Opta AnalystThe Netherlands will hope to continue their excellent record in major tournaments, having won 17 of their last 22 games across the Women’s World Cup and Women’s Euros (D2 L3). Group D rivals England (20) are the only European nation to win more major tournament matches since Euro 2017.
The Dutch may not be the most exciting team at Euro 2025, though. They scored only four goals in their six qualifying games for the tournament, fewer than any other team who qualified, but also conceded just four goals.
The Netherlands reached the quarter-finals in 46.5% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations, and despite being third likeliest to make it out of Group D, the Dutch are sixth favourites to win the whole thing, doing so in 5.4% of sims.
Wales are one of two nations making their Women’s Euros debut, along with Poland, becoming the last of the four British home nations to make their major tournament debut after England (Euro 1984), Scotland (Euro 2017) and Northern Ireland (Euro 2022).
Rhian Wilkinson’s side certainly made it on merit, too. Wales lost just one of their 10 games in qualifying (W6 D3); only Portugal (8) won more games than the Dragons (6) among nations that qualified for the tournament.
Canadian Wilkinson will become the first non-European to manage a team at a Women’s Euros and will be hopeful the experienced Jess Fishlock can maintain her form from the qualifiers; only Slovenia’s Lara Prasnikar (13) was directly involved in more goals than her (11 – 6 goals, 5 assists).
Wales have been drawn in a very tough group, though, and the Opta supercomputer only sees them advance to the knockouts in 9.2% of simulations.
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Women’s Euro 2025: Group D Preview and Predictions Opta Analyst.
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