Only one in five voters agree with Sir Keir Starmer that spending on disability benefits must come down, a new poll has found, in a blow for the Prime Minister’s welfare plans.
The survey for The i Paper by BMG Research suggests that a large number of people believe the overall benefits bill is too high, as ministers have argued.
But asked about specific types of welfare spending, voters are more supportive – with disability benefits such as the personal independence payment (PIP) the most popular category other than pensions.
Starmer has insisted it is essential to control spending on working-age benefits, which has ballooned since the Covid-19 pandemic. He will hold a vote this week on cuts to PIP and incapacity benefits for those unable to work because of a disability, having watered down the Government’s previous plans in order to limit the size of a rebellion by Labour MPs which had threatened to sink the policy.
The Prime Minister told the Sunday Times that he took personal responsibility for the belated U-turn, which arose only after more than 100 backbenchers publicly opposed the bill, and suggested it was because he had been focussed on the recent G7 and Nato summits, as well as the brief bombing war between Israel and Iran.
He said: “I’m putting this as context rather than excuse: I was heavily focused on what was happening with Nato and the Middle East all weekend. I turned my attention fully to it when I got back from Nato on Wednesday night. Obviously in the course of the early part of this week we were busy trying to make sure Nato was a success.”
Starmer added: “Would I rather have been able to get to a constructive package with colleagues earlier? Yeah, I would.” But he insisted that “getting it right is more important than ploughing on with a package which doesn’t necessarily achieve the desired outcome”.
Overall, 41 per cent of voters believe that benefits spending is too high, with only 19 per cent thinking it is too low.
When questioned on the different categories of welfare, however, the public is much more supportive of spending. On disability benefits specifically, just 19 per cent say the Government is spending too much with 36 per cent wanting to see the budget increased and 28 per cent saying the current level is about right.
Similarly on universal credit, sickness benefit, housing benefit and welfare aimed at families, there is net support for higher rather than lower spending, although by a smaller margin than for disability benefits. Only the state pension is more popular, with 48 per cent calling for more money and 10 per cent saying too much is now being spent.
The public seems to be broadly split when asked about the details of the Government’s reforms, which would make it harder to claim PIP – a payment available to disabled people whether or not they are in work – and reduce incapacity benefits. On the two-child benefit cap, which many Labour MPs want to see scrapped later this year, 44 per cent of voters want to keep it while 31 per cent would prefer to remove it.
Robert Struthers of BMG said: “The public’s views on welfare are complex, with important nuances. Ask about the benefits bill overall, and most say it’s too high. But dig into disability benefits or sickness payments, and the public is more divided. It sounds inconsistent, but it reflects reality: it’s easier to call for cuts in the abstract, harder when faced with who would lose out.
“You could argue the climbdown from Starmer is a pragmatic attempt to find a middle ground on a tough issue where opinion is generally split. The problem? Voters don’t just judge policies, they also judge competence. And for many, the broader picture will simply be more Labour in chaos and yet another U-turn.”
BMG Research interviewed a representative sample of 1,617 GB adults online between 24-25 June May 2025. BMG Research is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
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