The Midlands, East Anglia and the north-east of England are at high risk of drought if the hot, dry weather persists next month, the Environment Agency has warned.
This could pile further pressure on farmers and potentially push up some supermarket prices, retailers have warned.
Following the driest spring in England for 132 years – and with temperatures forecast to hit 34°C on Monday – the Environment Agency has already declared a drought in two parts of northern England, with several other areas of Britain in danger of following in the coming weeks.
“The North West and Yorkshire are officially in drought status, with a risk of drought moving into the North East, Midlands and East Anglia if the weather remains unusually hot and dry,” an Environment Agency spokesperson told The i Paper.
“We urge people to be mindful that slightly reducing their daily water use this summer will benefit our rivers and lakes, and the wildlife they support,” they added.
Eastern Scotland and northern and eastern Wales are also in danger of moving into drought as they are classed as being in “prolonged dry weather” status – one rung below a drought.
If rainfall is about average for July, it is likely the “status quo” – of being in or at risk of drought – will continue. And only if the rain is significantly above average for the month will the threat of drought recede in these areas, experts said.
Farmers across the country are reporting difficulties growing crops such as wheat, potatoes and carrots after England recorded just 44 per cent of its normal rainfall in March, April and May and 71 per cent so far in June. And these problems will deepen if new areas go into drought.
This could put pressure on food supplies that may, in turn, push up prices and reduce the variety of local produce on offer in the supermarkets, retailers warn.
“Reduced yields from poor UK harvests would likely put pressure on food prices and will increase reliance on imports to ensure availability for customers,” Andrew Opie, Director of Food & Sustainability at the British Retail Consortium told The i Paper.
“Food inflation has been trending upwards in recent months and is likely to rise further as retailers and their suppliers must contend with increased regulatory costs, geopolitical tensions and the impact of climate change,” he said.
Experts point out that prices on crops such as wheat and barley tend to be set globally and so are less likely to be affected by poor growing conditions in the UK – although they say even those might come under pressure, especially if Iran was to carry out its threat of shutting the Strait of Hormuz, a major trade route.
But the prices of fruit and veg are typically much more dependent on local growing conditions and are therefore more likely to be affected, they argue.
Asked whether we might see food shortages or price rises as a result of a significant drought, Rachel Hallos, a South Pennines beef and sheep farmer and vice president of the National Farmers Union, told The i Paper: “It literally depends on whether they can get it from elsewhere and that geopolitical climate that we’re in. If something goes wrong in Iran again and those shipping straits get blocked, we’ve got problems. We’re on that knife edge”.
Mark Robson, a farmer in Northumberland, added: “Our wheat looks absolutely appalling.
“Last year, trying to get it in, it was wet and then we had lots of flooding. Then it was pretty cold and from the cold, it was very very dry. And from the end of October, we had very little rainfall to keep the crops growing.”
Steve Moncaster, technical advisor for Norfolk Environment Food and Farming, which helps about half of Norfolk’s farmers manage their irrigation supplies, said: “If July is very dry, then there is definitely a risk to crops that are currently being grown and it will affect yield and quality.”
Reservoirs depleted – and hosepipe bans loom
Yorkshire Water, which is already operating in a drought, said its reservoirs are currently 58.3 per cent full, compared with an average of 81.9 per cent for this time of year.
Dave Kaye, director of water at Yorkshire Water, said there was the prospect of a hosepipe ban if the drought continues and urged people to cut their water use.
“Without significant rainfall in the coming months, temporary usage restrictions are a possibility. It’s important customers continue with their own efforts to use water wisely to help protect water resources into the summer months,” he said.
Forecasting the rain with any degree of accuracy is extremely difficult due to the complexity of the weather system, so it’s unclear how long the hot, dry weather will persist – and whether rainfall in the coming weeks will be enough to avert the threat of the drought spreading.
“There is a higher-than-average chance of a hot period over summer,” said Met Office spokesman Grahame Madge.
“We have already seen one in June, with another one on the way for the end of the month. Taking the UK as a whole near-average rainfall is most likely,” he added.
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