We look ahead to the European Under-21 Championship final in Bratislava with our England vs Germany prediction and preview. Can Lee Carsley’s side retain their title?
England vs Germany Stats: The Key Insights
The Opta supercomputer struggles to separate these two, with England winning slightly more of its 10,000 pre-match simulations inside 90 minutes (37.4%) than Germany (35.3%). England have won 10 and drawn one of their last 12 matches at the UEFA European Under-21 Championship, with defeat to Germany in the group stage of this year’s tournament their only loss in that time. Nick Woltemade has been involved in nine goals in this tournament (6 goals, 3 assists), the most Opta has on record (since 2007) by a player in a single edition of the U21 Euros.England and Germany have had some famous meetings in football tournaments through the years, and they face off again in Saturday’s European Under-21 Championship final.
This will be the third time they have met in the U21 Euros final. They tussled over two legs in 1982, with England winning 5-4 on aggregate (3-1 first leg, 2-3 second leg), before also meeting in 2009 showpiece. Germany won that 4-0 with goals from Gonzalo Castro, Mesut Özil and a Sandro Wagner brace.
Lee Carsley’s England have grown into this tournament. The Young Lions weren’t at their best in the group stage, beating Czechia 3-1 in their opener before drawing 0-0 with Slovenia and losing 2-1 to a much-changed Germany.
However, impressive wins over Spain (3-1) in the quarter-finals and the Netherlands (2-1) in the semis saw them reach a second successive final in this competition, which they won in 2023. The only previous nations to retain the trophy are England themselves (1982, 1984), Italy (1992, 1994, 1996), the Netherlands (2006, 2007) and Spain (2011, 2013).
In fact, England have won 10 and drawn one of their last 12 matches at the UEFA European Under-21 Championship, with that loss to Germany in the group stage their only defeat in that time. The last time a team won a U21 Euros final against a side they’d lost to earlier in the campaign was the Netherlands vs Ukraine in 2006 (lost 2-1 in group stage, won 3-0 in final).
Harvey Elliott was the star of the show against the Dutch in the semis, scoring both England goals in a 2-1 victory. The Liverpool man has scored four goals in this year’s tournament, with only Mark Hateley in 1984 ever scoring more for England in a single edition (six). Elliott has 13 goals in 25 appearances for the U21s in total, level with Alan Shearer and Francis Jeffers; only Eddie Nketiah has ever scored more for England U21s (16).
Tyler Morton will be back from suspension for England though may struggle to get back into the team after an excellent performance from Elliot Anderson in the semi-final, with the Nottingham Forest midfielder creating Elliott’s first goal.
Antonio Di Salvo’s Germany arrive in the final in excellent form, having won all five of their matches in the tournament, their longest ever winning run in the competition, scoring 2+ goals in each game (15 in total).
This will be Germany’s sixth UEFA European Under-21 Championship final, winning three and losing two of their previous appearances; only Spain (9) and Italy (7) got this far more often.
Germany won all three group games, beating Slovenia 3-0 and Czechia 4-2, before their 2-1 win over England. They then beat Italy 3-2 after extra-time in the quarter-finals and followed that up with a 3-0 victory over France in the semis.
Di Salvo will have to do without centre-back Max Rosenfelder, who has impressed at the tournament but was forced off in the semi-final after suffering a hamstring injury.
Germany’s Nick Woltemade has been one of the stars of the tournament, having been involved in nine goals (6 goals, 3 assists), the most Opta has on record (since 2007) by a player in a single edition of the U21 Euros. Woltemade – who is being linked with a move from Stuttgart to Bayern Munich – has also created 12 chances in the tournament, only bettered by Slovakia’s Tomás Rigo (13), while France’s Mathys Tel (8) is the one player with more more shots on target than the German (7).
England vs Germany Prediction
England are slight favourites to win the final, beating Germany inside 90 minutes in 37.4% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Germany are victorious in 90 mins in 35.3% of sims, while the remaining 27.3% see the game head to extra-time and possibly penalties.
England vs Germany Squads
England Under-21sJames Beadle, Tommy Simkin, Teddy Sharman-Lowe, Tino Livramento, Ronnie Edwards, Jarell Quansah, Charlie Cresswell, Brooke Norton-Cuffy, CJ Egan-Riley, Hayden Hackney, Tom Fellows, Elliot Anderson, James McAtee, Archie Gray, Jack Hinshelwood, Alex Scott, Tyler Morton, Jonathan Rowe, Omari Hutchinson, Samuel Iling-Junior, Jay Stansfield, Harvey Elliott, Ethan Nwaneri.
Head Coach: Lee Carsley
Germany Under-21sNoah Atubolu, Tjark Ernst, Nahuel Noll, Nnamdi Collins, Nathaniel Brown, Bright Arrey-Mbi, Max Rosenfelder, Lukas Ullrich, Tim Oermann, Jamil Siebert, Elias Baum, Eric Martel, Ansgar Knauff, Merlin Rohl, Jan Thielmann, Casper Jander, Rocco Reitz, Paul Nebel, Paul Wanner, Nicolo Tresoldi, Nick Woltemade, Brajan Gruda, Nelson Weiper.
Head Coach: Antonio Di Salvo
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England vs Germany Prediction: European U21 Championship Final Preview Opta Analyst.
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