When the sun sets on Florida’s 2025 season, I wonder the stories that it’ll tell. Will it tell a story of steady progression wherein DJ Lagway lived up to the hype? Will it tell the story of a total collapse in which Lagway’s shoulder didn’t hold up and as a result, neither did Billy Napier’s time at Florida? And if so, what will that mean?
Those stories have yet to be written. But simulate any version of Florida’s season and what do you get? Chaos.
Florida, whether it admits it or not, is the ultimate agent of chaos in 2025.
Perhaps you could argue that’ll be the case in most seasons of the post-Steve Spurrier era. After all, we’ve seen 6 different coaches come in, and only 1 of them (Urban Meyer) got a Year 5. In the post-Meyer era, none of them lasted beyond Year 4. Ergo, Year 4 of the Napier era was perhaps always destined for chaos.
But think about why this year is unique, especially in this era of the sport. Not many teams have both a coach who needed a vote of confidence to reach Year 4, as well as a preseason Heisman Trophy favorite (Lagway is 8th in the odds at +1880). The only other situation that’s comparable might be Oklahoma with Brent Venables and John Mateer, though what’s different about that situation is that Mateer wouldn’t quite have the same post-2025 market as Lagway if chaos ensued (more on that in a bit).
So let’s dig into each chaos scenario for 2025 Florida:
Chaos scenario No. 1: Florida goes 7-5
Wait a minute. Isn’t this chaos scenarios? What’s chaotic about 7-5?
Well, I’d point to last year and ask you what was chaotic about 7-5 … besides everything. A 7-5 Florida season endured a dreadful start to the home slate with a beatdown loss to Miami (FL), and after the Texas A&M loss, the Napier eulogies were being written by mid-September. Chaos was watching Billy Napier navigate hot-seat talk all the way until November. It was watching other fanbases squirm (Ole Miss) as their head coaches were rumored as potential Napier replacements.
There’s room for interpretation within a 7-5 season. You could go 7-5 with an elite defense and Lagway finishing with a 13-12 TD-INT ratio in an up-and-down year wherein he looks like he’s playing through injuries. If Florida gets off to a 7-2 start with blowout losses at Miami and vs. Georgia, but then it loses the final 3 games at Ole Miss, vs. Tennessee and vs. Florida State? Early-November Playoff buzz turns into a bitter ending wherein Lagway makes too many mistakes and Napier doesn’t just lose what’ll be a Lane Kiffin revenge game. He also becomes the first Florida coach to lose to Tennessee in The Swamp in 22 years and then follows it up with a regular-season finale loss to an FSU team that went 2-10 last year.
Are we sure that Napier survives that? That would be plenty chaotic.
Shoot, even the more back-and-forth version of 7-5 would be chaotic with the way that Florida’s schedule sets up. Would it be stunning to see a 3-3 start that includes a big road win (at LSU, at Miami or at Texas A&M) or a home win against Arch Manning-led Texas? A 3-3 start would have plenty of “fire Napier” conversations while a 4-2 start would probably have some sneaky “SEC Coach of the Year” conversations.
Don’t convince yourself that a 7-5 Florida season is ho-hum with the emotional swings that could be in store.
Chaos scenario No. 2: DJ Lagway gets hurt
If Lagway and his well-rested right shoulder make it through the entire 2025 season without any setbacks, that’ll be a massive win. Fingers crossed that happens. But reality is that Lagway’s 240-pound body could endure punishment in 2025, much like what we saw in 2024 when an injured hamstring against Georgia led to him wearing an apparatus on his leg late in the season that prevented him from being mobile (he was still plenty effective with those limitations).
If Lagway gets hurt and it’s a lost season, we could see a true divide forming. AD Scott Stricklin gave Napier that aforementioned vote of confidence in large part because of Lagway’s presence, so on one hand, a season-ending injury wouldn’t change that for 2026.
(I realize there are exceptions to that. A late-season torn Achilles or ACL would put that in jeopardy.)
But if Lagway gets hurt and Harrison Bailey can’t right the ship at all en route to a 3-9 season, can Stricklin afford to run it back with Napier? Or will the optics of empty stadiums and bad vibes be too much to overcome? Any sort of Napier return in that world would still likely in another overhauled on-field staff. At that point, why not just start fresh? If Lagway goes down, especially if it’s the shoulder, the path of least resistance could be to cut ties with the Lagway-Napier duo.
Speaking of that …
Chaos scenario No. 3: DJ Lagway stays healthy … but 5-7 happens
I would bet that means Napier is fired. Would I say that’s 100% imminent? No, just because Lagway can still be a top-5 SEC quarterback and Florida could still go 5-7 if the late-season 2024 defensive rise was just a mirage. I would argue guys like 2023 Spencer Rattler, 2020 Matt Corral and 2018 Jordan Ta’amu all fit that description.
But if a healthy Lagway leads a 5-7 season, the best bet would that Napier is fired and his quarterback enters the transfer portal. That would mean 2 things.
That would mean one of the best jobs in America is vacant. While we can point to Florida’s post-Meyer history of non-splashy hires as a reason why this job perhaps isn’t as coveted as some might assume, it’s still a team that checks the following 21st century boxes:
A) Multiple national titles B) Heisman Trophy winner C) Elite recruiting state in the SEC D) $85 million facility that opened in 2022 E) All the aboveIt’s “E.” It’s always “E.”
Until those things are stripped from Florida, we still have to consider it an elite job in the sport. That’ll be the case if Napier’s fired, and it’s why it could create a ripple effect that’s felt through the college football coaching carousel. Dare I say, it’ll set the market. If it doesn’t land in a splashy hire, it could at least get a bunch of other coaches some rich extensions.
Speaking of setting the market, what would Lagway on the open market look like? Even if it’s widely considered a 1-year deal, could he get $5-6 million? Who wouldn’t want to go all in to get Lagway if he flashes those next-level throws and he’s already got 1.5 seasons of SEC reps? That’s also still early enough in his career wherein there are plenty of offensive-minded coaches who would be convinced that they could fix Lagway’s mistakes and maximize his potential.
Would Lagway be the highest-paid “free agent” in college football history? Even in a post-revenue sharing era, wherein those numbers could take a dip if collectives are actually being governed by the College Sports Commission, I’d still bank on the former Gatorade National Player of the Year earning top dollar.
Chaos scenario No. 3 is as chaotic as it gets.
Chaos scenario No. 4: DJ Lagway leads Florida to its first Playoff berth
Florida putting together its best season of the post-Tim Tebow era would indeed be chaos. And to be clear, making the Playoff would be better than 2012 when the Playoff era wasn’t here yet. Getting a spot in the 12-team Playoff era would trump those New Year’s 6 Bowl appearances from the Dan Mullen era, and don’t even get me started on the 2015-16 Jim McElwain teams that won the SEC East during a time when it was begging for a true contender to emerge.
So yes, if Lagway navigates a daunting schedule and looks every bit like the real deal, he’ll be creating chaos in Gainesville unlike any that we’ve seen in recent memory. Well, 2020 was pretty chaotic. It’s easy to forget that Kyle Trask earned a Heisman Trophy invite, though that was only a virtual invite because of COVID. It’s easy to remember that Mullen lost his mind and gave us one of the more bizarre seasons we’ve ever seen from an SEC coach (he’d better have that Darth Vader costume ready for Halloween in Year 1 at UNLV).
A 10-2 Florida season with Lagway making jaw-dropping throws might not have the same national appeal that a disaster season would have. But for those of us who want to see the best version of the Florida signal-caller on a weekly basis, Chaos scenario No. 4 would be plenty entertaining.
Shoot, it could even yield a … Napier extension?!? Buddy, that’s chaos.
Why Florida is the ultimate agent of chaos in 2025 Saturday Down South.
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