While Iran-Israel tensions simmered in the background of the session, there was little market-moving news from the region. The main focus was on Japan and Australia.
Japan:
The session began with Japan’s services PPI for May, which rose 3.3% y/y—just below April’s revised 3.4%. This index reflects what businesses charge each other for services and is a key gauge of domestic inflation pressures.
The Bank of Japan is closely watching service-sector prices for signs that wage-driven inflation may become sustained.
We also received the Summary of Opinions from the BOJ’s June policy meeting. At that meeting, the BOJ kept its benchmark rate at 0.5% and signalled a slower pace of balance sheet reduction, citing concerns over weak domestic growth and shifting inflation expectations.
The Summary showed that BOJ policymakers were split, with some urging caution due to U.S. tariff risks and global uncertainties, while others argued for a decisive rate hike amid stronger-than-expected inflation.
One of those taking a more hawkish stance appears to be Tamura Naoki, who spoke to business leaders in Fukushima today.
Tamura warned that stronger-than-expected rate hikes may be needed if inflation risks rise, even amid uncertainty from U.S. tariffs.
He said inflation is tracking slightly above forecasts and may hit the 2% target earlier than expected, supported by wage and price hikes.
While tariffs could weigh on growth, Tamura expects inflation to stay near 2% through fiscal 2027.
He stressed the BOJ must be ready to act “decisively” if inflation expectations climb further.
The yen firmed slightly following Tamura’s comments but soon drifted back toward the middle of its intraday range.
Australia:
Australia’s April 2025 monthly CPI came in below expectations and the previous month’s reading:
Headline CPI: +2.1% y/y (exp. 2.3%, prior 2.4%)
Trimmed mean CPI: +2.4% y/y (exp. 2.5%, prior 2.8%) — a 3.5-year low
With both headline and core inflation moving closer to the bottom of the RBA’s 2–3% target band, today’s data adds to signs of easing services inflation. With Australian economic growth slow, market pricing for a rate cut at the July 7–8 RBA meeting jumped to 90% following the data. Indeed, pricing is moving close to 4 rate cuts in the coming 12 months.AUD/USD rose during the session, reflecting broad USD softness. NZD and EUR also gained against the dollar, while GBP and CAD lagged.
China:
Premier Li Qiang spoke at length, highlighting China’s ambition to transition from a manufacturing-led economy to a “super-sized consumption powerhouse.” He expressed confidence that China could maintain a “relatively rapid growth rate” during this structural shift.
New Zealand dollar outperformed, with some AUD/NZD selling noted:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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