Nuclear threat, more attacks, regime change – what next for Trump’s ‘ceasefire’ ...Middle East

The ceasefire between Iran and Israel announced by Donald Trump marks a dramatic shift in the dynamics of a Middle East conflict which saw Tehran’s nuclear sites bombed by the US over the weekend.

On Tuesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that Israel had agreed to the peace deal, which followed further strikes by Israeli jets on Iranian targets on Monday and missile attacks on Israel by Iran.

However, there were signs hours later of the ceasefire’s fragility, with Israel accusing Iran of violating the truce and vowing to retaliate forcefully. The US president has said he is “not happy” with either country for continued attacks.

Questions remain about what happens now, with Iran insisting it won’t abandon its ability to enrich uranium, but its regimes leaders greatly weakened.

Israel said Iran launched 20 missiles before the ceasefire began, with at least four people killed when three densely packed residential buildings were hit in the city of Beersheba.

Early on Tuesday morning, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran would stop its missile attacks if Israel stopped its airstrikes by 4am local time (2am GMT).

However, further attacks were launched by Iran over the following four hours.

A civilian retrieves personal belongings from the rubble of his house after a ballistic missile fired from Iran struck Tel Aviv (Photo: Amir Levy/Getty Images)

Writing over an hour after a deadline passed for Iran to halt its attacks, Trump wrote on Truth Social: “THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT. PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!”

But the tentative truce hung in the balance as Israel said Iran launched missiles into its airspace less than three hours after the ceasefire went into effect and vowed to retaliate.

As well as the fragility of the ceasefire, it’s unclear what terms the two sides have agreed to.

“Can the ceasefire hold?” asked Dennis Ross, a former Middle East negotiator for Republican and Democratic administrations. “Yes, the Iranians need it and the Israelis have largely now acted against the target list.”

But he added: “Iran is greatly weakened but what is the future of its nuclear and ballistic missile programs?

“What happens to its stockpile of highly enriched uranium? There will be a need for negotiations – and these won’t be easy to resolve.”

Will Israel be happy?

On Monday, three Israeli officials said their government was looking to wrap up its campaign in Iran soon and had passed the message on to the US, but that much would depend on Tehran.

More than 50 per cent of Iran’s missile launchers have reportedly been taken out by Israeli forces during the 12-day conflict.

Confirming Israel had agreed to Trump’s ceasefire plan, Netanyahu claimed the military operation achieved its goals and has eliminated the Iranian nuclear threat.

Laura Blumenfeld, a Middle East expert at the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies in Washington, said: “Now that Trump declared ‘world peace,’ it will be hard for Netanyahu to publicly contradict him.”

Ali Vaez, Iran director for the International Crisis Group, said every side could now claim victory while avoiding a larger, more damaging conflict.

He told the New York Times: “The United States can say it has set back Iran’s nuclear programme.

“Israel can say it has weakened Iran, a regional adversary, and Iran can say it has survived and pushed back against much stronger military powers.”

However, Netanyahu wants to see regime change in Iran, a move Trump appeared to back over the weekend, and any lasting truce would fall short of this aim.

Iran claims it smuggled its stockpile of enriched uranium to a secret location before the US launched its bunker-buster bomb strikes on nuclear facilities on Sunday.

Tehran is believed to have had around 400kg of 60 per cent enriched uranium, enough for around 10 bombs.

The material was though to have been stored at the Isfahan facility, which was the target of US tomahawk cruise missiles launched from a submarine, Natanz and Fordo, the main enrichment facility.

A US Air Force B-2 stealth bomber returns to its Missouri base after attacking key Iranian nuclear sites (Photo: ABC Affiliate KMBC via Reuters)

If Iran had moved the stockpile, it would still have the material which was close to the 90 per cent purity required to build a nuclear bomb.

In an interview with Fox News, US Vice President JD Vance refused to confirm if Washington knows where the enriched uranium is while insisting it was now “buried”.

While rebuilding vital equipment such as centrifuges that was damaged in the strikes could take years and General Dan Caine said all three nuclear sites hit by the US sustained “extremely severe damage and destruction”.

But he admitted it would take time to assess the overall damage.

Sima Shine, a former Iran specialist at Mossad, the Israeli intelligence agency, told The Financial Times she was convinced Iran had moved enriched material.

“They have enough enriched uranium somewhere, and they took some advanced centrifuges somewhere, in order to enable them to someday go to a nuclear device,” Shine said.

“The programme is not destroyed completely, no matter what the Americans say.”

How the US attacked Iran’s nuclear sites with B-2 bombers

David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, told NPR Iran may have thousands of uranium-enriching centrifuges installed in sites other than Natanz and Fordo, with inspections needed to asses Tehran’s nuclear programme.

What is the fallout for Keir Starmer?

The Prime Minister appears to have been blindsided by Trump’s decision to launch the strikes, which cast doubt on Downing Street’s ability to influence the US President.

Attorney General Lord Hermer reportedly raised concerns that the UK becoming involved in the Iran-Israel conflict could be illegal.

Starmer and Foreign Secretary David Lammy, the foreign secretary, were convinced there was a “window of opportunity” to de-escalate the conflict.

After meeting Trump at the G7 summit in Canada, the Prime Minister had said “there’s nothing the president said that suggests that he’s about to get involved in this conflict”.

On Thursday, Trump had suggested there would be a pause to ensure there was a “chance for substantial negotiations”, but two days later seven B2 bombers left a Missouri airbase heading towards Iran to carry out the strikes.

As he headed to the Nato summit on Tuesday, Starmer pledged to meet a new target to spend five per cent of GDP on national security by 2035, a move it’s hoped will placate Trump.

But the UK’s 2035 target is three years behind the 2032 deadline originally pushed by Rutte, and Trump could demand a quicker timeline at the two-day summit.

There have also been fears about volatile oil prices since the Iran-Israel conflict flared hitting drivers at the petrol pump and sending the cost of living soaring.

Oil prices tumbled five per cent on Tuesday after news of the ceasefire having soared has high as $81 a barrel, but it will be hoped the fragile peace deal holds.

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