Geopolitical shock was the initial driver in the forex market today: news that U.S. forces struck Iranian enrichment sites sparked a flight into the greenback and crude-linked selling of CAD. USDCAD surged through the confluence of the May trend-line cap and the 50 % retracement of the May → Jun slide at 1.37782, briefly printing fresh three-week highs.
But the breakout could not stick. As Wall Street clawed back early losses and U.S. yields turned lower, focus shifted to policy divergence. Fed Governor Bowman echoed Governor Waller’s Friday remark that a July rate cut “could be on the table,” highlighting an emerging rift with Chair Powell’s more cautious stance. The dollar reversed, pulling USDCAD back inside the yellow-shaded swing band and more recently back below it.
The USDCAD is now pivoting around the former floor at 1.37498. A decisive close below keeps the failure narrative alive and paints this morning’s spike as a bull trap; in that scenario, the broken 38.2 % retrace at 1.37221 is the first natural magnet, with the 100-hour MA just beneath adding weight.
Conversely, a recovery back into the swing area and above the 1.3771 and the 50% at 1.3778 would re-energise buyers and open the door toward 1.3814 and then the 61.8% at 1.3824 as targets.
Key technical levels
Resistance
1.3778 – 1.3781 (50 % retrace & swing-zone ceiling)
1.3814 (minor May pivot)
1.38342 (early-May high / 61.8 % Fib)
Support
1.37221 (38.2 % May pullback)
1.3701 (100-hour MA; starts broader support band)
1.3685 -1.3692 (swing area)
As long as geopolitics and Fed rhetoric tug in opposite directions, expect two-way flows with traders leaning against the levels above.
PS: The chance of a July cut is up to 20% while the chance for a September cut is now 80%. Two Fed officials is greater that 1. Moreover, there is the hint of politics with the quick rebuttal of the Fed chair, who just on Wednesday, implied the Fed is resolute to wait it out, that a tariff induced inflation spike was forthcoming.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( USDCAD squeezes higher, then slips as dovish Fed talk trumps war-premium bid )
Also on site :
- Target's 'Top-Selling' $5 Backpack Is Heading Back to Stores This Year
- Fresh sirens in north Israel warning of Iran missiles: army
- SMB-focused Finom closes €115M as European fintech heats up