News of US strikes:
U.S. B-2 Bombers Observed in Transit - WSJBREAKING: U.S. Successfully Struck Iran Nuclear SitesWhat's Next after Iran Strikes?Trump is tweeting about regime change in IranUS State Department issues worldwide security alert for US citizens to exercise cautionTrump's orders strike: Ayatollah gave Trump the middle finger ... that came with a priceThere is basically zero chance Iran will be able to close the Strait of HormuzICYMI - 4 oil price forecasts, bleak scenario is up to US$130/bblANZ warn on Hormuz disruption, oil could rise to US$95 / bblOil markets - too early for a “the worst is behind us” hot take on war at this stageGoldman Sachs outlines a scenario where oil prices jump to US$110 / bblTrump to meet with national security team 1pm US Eastern time on MondayOther:
Weekend news was dominated by reports of US military strikes:
125 US military aircraft, including seven B-2 stealth bombers as the main strike group
Three nuclear facilities targeted: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan
75 precision-guided weapons deployed, including 14 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs; ~13,000kg / 30,000lb), dropped on two target areas
More than two dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from a US submarine at Isfahan site targets
In the very early hours of the Asia session, FX markets reacted with a mild safe-haven bid into USD. The dollar firmed across the board, with EUR, GBP, AUD, and NZD all gapping lower. JPY and CHF also weakened, while CAD dipped, but found partial support from a rise in oil prices.
At the Globex open (6pm US Eastern), oil prices gapped higher, with Brent briefly hitting five-month highs. US equity index futures opened lower but were quickly bought back, almost fully closing their gaps.
EUR, AUD, NZD, and GBP also recovered early losses, but as the session wore on, these currencies turned lower again—AUD and NZD underperforming most notably.
As of writing, Brent crude has retraced about two-thirds of its gap higher. Technically, Brent broke above a triple top and has since pulled back to retest that level. While oil bulls may be disappointed by the lack of follow-through on such a major escalation, bears should be cautious—they’re still fighting a well-established uptrend.
On the political front, President Trump raised the prospect of regime change in Iran, reportedly blindsiding his senior officials. Given the source, the idea can’t be entirely dismissed. If this does become a goal, the Middle East risks entering a sharply more escalatory phase. It’s still unlikely in my view, but with Trump, unpredictability—and follow-through—should never be underestimated.
Other developments:
Australia's flash PMIs showed business activity expanding at a faster pace in June, driven by stronger new orders. However, export orders declined sharply. Sentiment improved, and employment continued to rise.
Similarly in Japan, the flash composite PMI rose to 51.4 from 50.2, supported by robust services and an upturn in manufacturing output.
As of writing, USD/JPY is trading near a five-week high. Gold spiked higher at the opening but has since fallen back to be lower on the day.
Brent up
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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