While Britain wasn’t directly involved in the US’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s tacit backing of President Donald Trump demonstrates his dilemma: should the UK get involved in the conflict despite its overriding wish for de-escalation in the Middle East.
“Iran can never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon, and the US has taken action to alleviate that threat,” Starmer said today in a tacit acceptance that the action was necessary. “The situation in the Middle East remains volatile and stability in the region is a priority. We call on Iran to return to the negotiating table and reach a diplomatic solution to end this crisis.”
At the heart of this is Starmer’s tightrope walk with Trump. On the one hand, keen to keep the President onside for trade and tariff deals; on the other keen to align with the Europeans to push for de-escalation in Iran. That’s combined with independent evidence the Iranian regime was very close to developing nuclear weapons, ahead of the US strikes on its facilities.
Meanwhile, Starmer is saddled with the knowledge that Trump simply doesn’t care what he, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Friedrich Merz think. This is a war Trump can prosecute on his own.
“Iran doesn’t want to speak to Europe. They want to speak to us. Europe is not going to be able to help in this one, ” Trump said, dismissing the diplomatic discussions. Even more worrying is the imminent meeting between Iran’s foreign minister and Russia’s Vladimir Putin. That really is all the bad guys in one room, even if the Americans see it differently: they want Russia back in the G8.
Trump’s unilateral decision to proceed with military action also demonstrates the failure of efforts by European nations to de-escalate the conflict. Foreign ministers from the UK, France and Germany held talks with their Iranian counterpart on Friday but were unable to persuade Trump not to go ahead.
Starmer spent today [Sunday] discussing the next steps with allies in the region including King Abdullah of Jordan by phone, before he travels to the Netherlands this week for the Nato summit.
Iran is led by an awful regime and does have a direct impact on the UK: seven men were arrested on suspicion of grievous bodily harm after two people were assaulted outside the Iranian embassy over the weekend. Last month three alleged Iranian spies were charged with planning to commit violence against UK based journalists.
Last autumn Ken McCallum, the director general of MI5, said the UK has responded to 20 Iran-backed plots since the start of 2022, presenting potentially lethal threats here at home, adding Iran could “repurpose” its criminal network in the UK away from targeting dissidents in order to attack Britons.
Although the UK has participated in US-led strikes in Yemen to safeguard Red Sea shipping and aided Israel against Iranian attacks, backing bombing raids on Iran would be more contentious.
Kidnappings, sabotage, or attacks against national assets or embassies by Iran or its proxies are real possibilities if Britain gets involved.
Even if alignment with Trump would suit the UK’s hard interests, uppermost in the minds of politicians are troubling parallels to Labour’s backing of the Iraq war, where Labour allied with another Republican president’s hot-headed decisions. Combined with the possibility of poorly-equipped British troops being sent into a forever war with ill-defined aims – perhaps regime change – it’s enough to make any Labour MP lie down with a flannel over their heads, never mind the weather.
Within Labour the decision to support Israeli-instigated military action stirs the concern – exacerbated by the Israeli treatment of the Gazans – into an electoral concern too. Pro–Palestinian candidates already took seats off Labour and nearly took more from senior party figures at the general election.
Meanwhile some in the Labour Party still suppress a shudder when they recall Tony Blair’s involvement in the Iraq war, seeing it as a significant blemish on their history.
Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds told Sky News on Sunday the US didn’t request British assistance in the attack, nor use of its base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. The potential use of that base by the US in strikes on Iran had raised concerns within the UK government about whether it complies with international law, with hideous parallels to the run-up to the Iraq conflict.
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In the US, several members of Congress have questioned whether the President’s actions are even legal or amount to an unconstitutional attempt to escape congressional authorisation. Back home, the Liberal Democrats repeated their call for Parliament to have a say before any British military action is taken.
Notwithstanding the spillover into attacks on British assets abroad, Iran could also retaliate by blocking the strategically important Strait of Hormuz or attacking the energy infrastructure of the Arab Gulf and drive up global oil prices. With UK inflation just under control, Starmer doesn’t need another assault on voters’ cost of living.
The UK has form here, with a history of interventionism that ranges from the 1922 coup, the Second World War Russian alliance, the 1953 coup support, and the joint US-UK support of the Shah until his 1979 downfall, amid growing internal opposition.
Although Starmer urged de-escalation, concerns persist that Britain might become indirectly involved in the war.
The UK is more likely to support Israel’s self-defence with intelligence, logistics, and defensive resources than to engage in military operations against Iranian targets.
But skilled leadership is knowing when to step back as well as lean in. Starmer’s dilemma is whether to let Trump sort out the chaos of his own creation, even as he considers the very real threat Iran poses to the world order – and Britons at home.
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