After Trump’s Iran strike, Maga is at a crossroads ...Middle East

In Donald Trump’s White House on Saturday night, less than one week after the US President claimed he had “nothing to do” with Israel’s attack on Iran, Trump revealed the scale of one of the greatest military and strategic bluffs in American history. 

It is still unclear whether, as long as seven days ago, he had settled on his fateful decision to attack and obliterate Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities at the risk of sparking a new “forever” war for the US military to fight. He certainly spent the entire week keeping the world guessing, and telling everyone exactly what they wanted to hear.  

The Iranians, blindsided by Israel’s original attack, may have believed Trump’s Thursday night pledge to give negotiations more time. His press secretary said that the President believed there was a “substantial chance” that negotiations could occur, and insisted Trump would only make a decision about military action “within” a two-week window. 

Sir Keir Starmer departed the G7 summit in Canada convinced that Trump was interested in de-escalating the conflict, not becoming the primary actor within it. The Prime Minister was in “no doubt” about the matter, he told reporters only last Wednesday.

At home, the President’s harshest critics within his “America First” movement convinced themselves that their efforts to dissuade him from breaking his promise not to engage in new, distant wars had paid off. But Trump had other ideas, and recoiled at the disloyalty of fellow travellers including Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and former Fox News personality Tucker Carlson. 

Trump played them all like a Stradivarius.

Simultaneously, he has now adhered himself to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with geostrategic superglue. Their relationship, at times, has appeared fractious. Netanyahu bristled quietly at the White House last month when Trump blindsided him by announcing his intention to talk to the Iranians and attempt to negotiate their nuclear programme away. 

But on Saturday, the President intoned that he and the Israeli leader had “worked as a team like perhaps no team has ever worked before”. He congratulated the Israeli military on their work last week in waves of missile strikes on Iran, and said that together with the US Air Force’s B-2 bomber pilots, the two countries had “gone a long way to erasing this horrible threat to Israel”. From that kind of rhetoric, there is no turning back. 

There is also no turning back from Trump’s decision to violate the promise he made to his supporters to end an era of US military adventurism. On the campaign trail last year, and then on Inauguration Day itself, he assured the American people that he wanted to be best remembered for “the wars that we end and perhaps most importantly for the wars that we never get into”. Yet, on Saturday night he opened a new, deeply uncertain chapter in US interventionism in the Middle East. 

For Trump’s “Make America Great Again” supporters, a fork in the road may now have arrived, although traditional, rally-around-the-flag backing for the country’s military is likely to prove strong. Trump’s irritation with Carlson and others may have fuelled his determination to prove that he alone will determine the movement’s future path. Greene took to social media on Saturday night and indicated that she was already willing to back off. “Let us all join together and pray for peace”, she wrote on X. Carlson remained uncharacteristically quiet. 

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The Iranians are already warning of dragging America into yet another “forever” war that could further test the loyalty of Trump’s grassroots supporters.

The country’s state broadcasters warned that “every American citizen and soldier in the region is now a legitimate target”. Addressing Trump directly, they proclaimed: “You made this choice. You started it…you’ve chosen for the blood of American soldiers to be spilled”. In what appeared to be a fresh threat to the President’s personal safety, Iran’s news anchors also thundered that “even the Presidency of Trump will not be in existence” as a result of Tehran’s planned response.

The White House will have priced those threats into Trump’s military equation. But with 600,000 American citizens living in Israel, and more than 40,000 US troops deployed in the region, Iran has no shortage of targets within its reach if it retains the military capacity to go after them. There will also be deep anxiety across Europe about the possibility of terror cells pursuing softer targets there. 

Trump’s decision to launch Saturday’s assault came just hours after he again complained that he has never been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. That goal may be more elusive than ever if the country now gets sucked into a long, terror-infused conflict with a weakened Iranian leadership that is fighting for its very survival. 

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