Offseason Scenarios: What if the Denver Nuggets HAVE to make a big trade? ...Middle East

Two weeks ago, I wrote about the likely scenario of the Denver Nuggets “Running it Back” for the 2025-26 season.

That remains, of course, the scenario that the Nuggets are most likely to undergo. With the Nuggets still operating slowly in the process of adding their new full-time General Manager, a new voice coming in and immediately rocking the boat with a major roster shift seems improbable. Vice Chairman Josh Kroenke also made it clear at the end of the season that he still sees “Internal Development” as the most important form of improvement for Denver this offseason.

Of course, all of that can change in an instant. If the Nuggets bring in a new general manager that immediately attempts to change things, that would drastically change the “Run it Back” plan. If Nikola Jokic doesn’t immediately sign a three-year extension on July 8th because he’s “hesitant to commit” then that will start the DEFCON alert status in the Nuggets organization very quickly. If none of those things happen and the Nuggets simply get off to another slow start in 2025-26 like they did in 2024-25, then this could be the year things change.

For what it’s worth, the Nuggets core has been together since 2021. They haven’t been healthy for that entire time, but it’s been about four years.

Since 2021, the number of teams that have retained their four best players throughout that stretch is…one team. With Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, and Michael Porter Jr., the Nuggets have, by far, the most continuity in the NBA over the 2020’s. There’s no team that’s remotely close on that front, and while Denver’s been consistently good during that stretch, they’ve only had one year of truly great.

It was understandable that the Nuggets didn’t revamp their roster after 2023, and Brown’s departure wasn’t in their control. In 2024, Caldwell-Pope’s departure was, and the Nuggets did it anyway for the purpose of second tax apron flexibility and opening the door for Christian Braun. Now, the Nuggets will have to eventually pay Braun in Caldwell-Pope’s place, and the second tax apron continues to loom.

Denver’s held onto their starting lineup throughout the process, but as their young players start to get more expensive, choices are going to have to be made on how much ownership is willing to spend on a team that’s made the Conference Finals once in the last five years. The Nuggets may have been close each of the last two seasons, but for a team that’s paying the repeater tax and also fired a coach set to make $24 million through the 2026-27 season, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if Denver decides to get cheaper quicker than people expect.

Whatever the reasons, let’s break down some scenarios for how the Nuggets could make “Big Changes” over the next couple weeks.

Denver Nuggets Salary Cap Sheet

Let’s start with the current depth chart and the impending decisions with Denver’s own free agents:

Depth Chart

Point Guard: Jamal Murray, Jalen Pickett

Shooting Guard: Christian Braun, Julian Strawther

Small Forward: Michael Porter Jr., Peyton Watson, Hunter Tyson

Power Forward: Aaron Gordon, Zeke Nnaji, DaRon Holmes II

Center: Nikola Jokic, Dario Saric*

*Denotes Player Option

The most important change from two weeks ago is that Russell Westbrook is going to be an unrestricted free agent. He had to decide on a player option and will reportedly explore free agency.

Westbrook joins DeAndre Jordan and Vlatko Čančar as Denver’s only free agents, meaning that 12 players are currently locked into the 2025-26 roster, pending a player option decision by Dario Šarić.

For the sake of this exercise, let’s leave the free agents until the end of each scenario to leave space for “major moves” to occur.

What do “Big Changes” mean?

I’m going to use “Big Changes” as the other binary option of “Running it Back” in which I outlined that Denver’s starting lineup would see no change. In these scenarios, I will be altering Denver’s starting lineup in a variety of ways. Some will make Denver better. Some will make Denver worse. Some will feel like I’m shuffling deck chairs for a similar outcome, and that might be the case. Denver could end up making changes for any particular reason, and I will do my best to mirror that here.

Option A – Straightforward Michael Porter Jr. trade

When Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon signed extensions last offseason, the writing was somewhat on the wall that Michael Porter Jr. would be a potential trade candidate in future years. His performance in the playoffs has been erratic, impacted by injuries and elite defenses. His skill set as a floor spacer and rebounder, while important, is more replaceable than the tough shotmaking of Murray or versatility of Gordon.

The other major factor is the CBA. Porter is set to earn $78 million over the next two seasons, and with significant money already tied up in Jokic, Murray, and Gordon, the Nuggets may follow suit of what other teams end up doing and pay fewer players a top level salary.

It’s important to note that Porter’s value around the league, for the most part, isn’t what Nuggets fans would hope it is. With a troubled medical history, a big contract, and a specific skill set on both ends of the floor, Porter is seen as a negative value contract. He’s not going to yield Kevin Durant, and it will be difficult to acquire players like Cam Johnson or Trey Murphy III because the Nuggets have just one first round pick in either 2031 or 2032 that they can include in a trade. Other teams can outbid them, so setting the sights lower is important.

So, let’s look at one trade idea here:

***Projected Trade: Denver Nuggets send Michael Porter Jr. and Dario Saric to the Chicago Bulls for Patrick Williams, Kevin Huerter, and Jevon Carter***

Let me be clear about this deal: it’s risky. Porter is a legitimate starter for the Nuggets, and they don’t get a legitimate starter back. Patrick Williams has been one of the more disappointing players in the NBA, and his contract is basically $18 million per season for the next four years. He’s still 23 years old though, and there’s a world where playing next to Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Aaron Gordon in a higher level offense allows him to simplify his process and become a better role player. In addition, he’s still a very good athlete and displays defensive potential.

The value in this deal though would be turning one starter into three potential rotation players. Kevin Huerter is a floor spacer. Jevon Carter is a defensive guard. Both would add to Denver’s overall roster in a nice way. In addition, the Nuggets don’t have to use any draft capital in this situation because the Bulls would see adding Porter as a value add for a roster that needs spacing and size around a guard heavy group that likes to drive to the paint.

Could you get Ayo Dosunmu instead of Jevon Carter by throwing in the 2031 first round pick? It would be a legal trade and would give Denver a higher impact player than Carter; however, it’s difficult to foresee the Bulls acquiring Porter unless they kept Dosunmu to cover for him in their rotation.

After that move, the Nuggets would have two roster spots left. Let’s use one on a backup big man in Oklahoma City Thunder center Jaylin Williams for the Taxpayer Mid-Level exception at $5.7 million. Let’s use the other on a veteran 15th man in Joe Ingles would could impart some wisdom to the younger players as a bench coach.

This would be a true 11-man rotation for a while, and the Nuggets could utilize basically everybody until the trade deadline. At that point, perhaps the Nuggets can get aggressive on the trade market once again. Keep in mind, Peyton Watson would almost certainly want to start if Porter was traded, and he might start over Williams in this scenario. If he didn’t though, the Nuggets would likely move Watson before the next trade deadline.

Option B – A Jamal Murray trade

So many of the scenarios are centered around moving Michael Porter Jr. for many of the reasons already mentioned. The other guys got extensions, and Porter’s had playoff struggles. It makes sense…unless teams simply aren’t willing to trade for Porter this offseason.

If that’s the case, and Denver still feels the need to make a deal anyway, the natural progression is to look at Murray deals. The reason Denver can sell themselves on such a deal is if they manage to get some salary cap flexibility and add additional rotation players in the process.

Here’s a deal that accomplishes both:

***Projected Trade: Denver Nuggets send Jamal Murray to the Houston Rockets and Dario Saric to the Brooklyn Nets (salary dump), the Rockets send Fred VanVleet and Tari Eason to Denver and a 2026 second round pick to Brooklyn to facilitate the deal***

The theory here is that Houston knows they need more offense around a core of Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., and Dillon Brooks. Jalen Green is still a factor, but the Rockets get another dynamic ball handler in Murray to replace their more traditional point guard in VanVleet.

For the Nuggets, they get VanVleet’s expiring contract and can either negotiate a new deal with him or clear the books entirely in 2026. They also get Tari Eason, a dynamic forward with playmaker skills on defense and athleticism to match.

Eason would effectively replace Peyton Watson in the rotation, who gets moved in this next deal:

***Projected Trade: Denver Nuggets send Peyton Watson, Zeke Nnaji, and Hunter Tyson to the Milwaukee Bucks for Bobby Portis***

Denver consolidates the back end of their roster and gets a dynamic backup center option that can also play next to Jokic in some lineups. Milwaukee does this so they don’t have to pay Portis going forward and have an opportunity to reset their team around Giannis Antetokounmpo, and there’s a possibility Watson could develop into their starting small forward in the future.

After this, Denver re-signs Russell Westbrook on a new minimum contract to be the backup point guard again to complete a 10-man rotation, and they still have access to their TP-MLE. So, they add Sam Merrill, the best shooter they can get. He may or may not play every night, but the Nuggets would have the option.

After that, the Nuggets fill out the rest of their roster with minimums in the frontcourt, including MarJon Beauchamp, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, and Orlando Robinson.

This scenario is all about adding veterans around Denver’s core to relieve pressure from the veterans. VanVleet, Portis, Westrbrook, and Merrill would fill a role, as would Eason with the expectation that he develops into a starter in the near future.

But really, this would signify a tone shift for the Nuggets into a more defensive minded group around Jokic. Yes, Porter and Merill would be negative defenders, but the Nuggets would have plenty of options to fill in for them. While Murray isn’t a sieve defensively, he doesn’t have the same defensive activity or instincts of VanVleet from night to night. Add in defensive improvements from the second unit, and the Nuggets would push for a top 10 defense once again.

Is it too much pressure on Jokic offensively? Perhaps, and that’s a major concern. Porter and Gordon would be asked to play at a higher usage offensively, as would Christian Braun.

It might not work, but it’s something to consider.

Option 3 – Avoiding Extensions

The Nuggets are in line to pay both Christian Braun and Peyton Watson extensions this offseason. They become eligible to be extended on July 1st until the beginning of next season. It’s unknown whether Denver will commit to either player. Prior history says they will, and Braun seems to have earned a big deal with the Nuggets.

But what if the Nuggets weren’t super enthused about paying big money to their young players? If Denver wants to mostly maintain their core group, the easiest way to do so is trade the younger, cheaper, and potentially more valuable players for pieces that can help Denver win soon.

So, here are two separate trades that accomplish that goal:

***Projected Trade: Denver Nuggets send Jamal Murray, Peyton Watson, Zeke Nnaji, and a 2032 Top 5 Protected first round pick to the Sacramento Kings for Zach LaVine and Keegan Murray***

***Projected Trade: Denver Nuggets send Michael Porter Jr. and Christian Braun to the Washington Wizards for Marcus Smart, Corey Kispert, Justin Champagnie, and a 2029 first round pick via another team***

Denver gets a bit crazy here and rearranges their entire perimeter with these two deals. In the first one, Sacramento makes the bet that Jamal Murray can work with Domantas Sabonis as the point guard they need, and they believe in him enough that they’re willing to move Zach LaVine and Keegan Murray in the deal. Denver compensates them as best they can with Watson being a great defensive option next to Sabonis, but this way, Denver turns one starter into two starters, including one that can take on the scoring burden Murray leaves behind.

In the second deal, Denver clears starting spots for LaVine and Murray at shooting guard and small forward by sending Porter and Braun to Washington, who decide to make a push to be better sooner than expected after a horrible 2024-25 season. Marcus Smart becomes Denver’s lead point guard in primarily an off-ball capacity, but he can run some offense on occasion with Jokic and LaVine. Kispert and Champagnie add to Denver’s bench wing depth, giving Denver some options to mix and match lineups. The Nuggets also get a future 2029 first round pick for their trouble to help offset the Stepien Rule.

In free agency, the Nuggets address backup point guard with Tyus Jones getting the TP-MLE, while the center spot gets filled by Marvin Bagley III on a minimum. After that, Denver takes a flyer on former Brooklyn Nets forward Trendon Watford on a minimum contract.

It’s a lot of changes, and the perimeter defense would be relying a lot on Smart and (Keegan) Murray to hold things together defensively; however, this almost entirely remakes the perimeter group around Jokic and Gordon into a more versatile mix of players on the perimeter. In addition, Denver wouldn’t be lacking for shooters. Strawther and Pickett aren’t even in the above rotation, and while Smart would be the weakest shooter, he would get pretty easy shots in this setup.

This might be too many changes too quickly, but perhaps it’s the swing Denver needs to shake up the roster around Jokic.

Option 4 – Go get an All-Star

This is the scenario where the Nuggets take a big chance, breaking up the core of their team in the attempt to add more top end talent to the roster. Unfortunately, there aren’t that many players available to Denver and the assets they have, so the Nuggets would have to target a “distressed” asset of sorts on a team that’s still trying to figure out where they want to go. So, the Nuggets go after a talented player and hope they get lucky.

***Projected Trade: Denver Nuggets send Michael Porter Jr., Christian Braun, Jalen Pickett, a 2031 first round pick, and a 2030 first round swap to the New Orleans Pelicans for Zion Williamson and Jose Alvarado***

In this scenario, the Pelicans attempt to reset the clock for their organization, knowing that they don’t have a path to contention with Zion as their best player. So, they add two starters and a first round pick from Denver, sending Williamson away. The fit between Jokic and Zion, in theory, should be really good. Zion is basically a star version of the role Aaron Gordon initially filled in Denver and would be able to impact the game off Jokic passes and attention.

Of course, the fit between Zion and Gordon isn’t great, which is where the second trade comes in.

***Projected Trade: Denver Nuggets send Aaron Gordon and Dario Saric to the San Antonio Spurs for Devin Vassell***

Stating things plainly, I don’t take any pleasure in trading Aaron Gordon. His Q score in Denver is currently at an all-time high, and making this kind of trade would necessitate the approval of Jokic, who would probably hate it but also understand some of the spacing concerns if Gordon starts at small forward next to Jokic and Zion.

The Spurs attempt to restructure their lineup around Victor Wembanyama, De’Aaron Fox, and Stephon Castle by adding their starting power forward. They let go of Vassell in the process, in part because of drafting Rutgers guard Dylan Harper at second overall. The Spurs don’t need to rush this kind of move, but if they want to jump into contention immediately, Gordon would provide an important need for their lineups in covering for Wemby in the frontcourt.

The Nuggets, for their part, get a starting wing that fits better in between Murray, Jokic, and Zion. Vassell slides into the shooting guard spot, while Peyton Watson gets his wish and becomes the starting small forward, two solid defensive wings around a trio of offensive minded players.

Denver continues to add to their perimeter in free agency with Gary Trent Jr. accepting the TP-MLE to be an important wing off the bench. Then, Denver goes to get Daniel Theis for a minimum to share some backup center minutes next to DaRon Holmes. Finally, Denver sills out their bench with Dante Exum and Torrey Craig, some hard workers and good vibe guys to have in different situations. They leave their 15th roster spot empty and after to add the right player throughout the year.

There’s always a possibility that this blows up in Denver’s lap. Taking a big swing on Zion to have some healthy seasons next to Jokic might be great, but it also might end up being terrible if Zion gets hurt, the fit isn’t good, or the defense just can’t function at a high enough level.

Still, if the goal is to add as much talent as possible, this is at least a plausible way to do so.

After going through these exercises, it’s really easy to poke a hole in every single plan. In Option A, Patrick Williams replacing Michael Porter Jr. seems pretty dangerous for a team that desperately needs spacing. In Option B, what do the Nuggets look like in clutch situations if it’s Fred VanVleet trying to run the two-man game instead of Jamal Murray? In Option C, does Denver still have enough top end talent to compete at the top of the West if they ultimately replace Murray, Braun, and Porter with Marcus Smart, Zach LaVine, and Keegan Murray? In Option D, does Jokic demand a trade once he has to deal with Zion Williamson instead of Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon?

All of this to say, the Nuggets are in a really tough spot, and making a big trade as seen in these scenarios seem extremely unlikely. Opposing teams may not feel they’re getting the requisite value back, and the Nuggets would likely feel they’re rocking the boat too much on a team that was one game away from beating the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Oh, and the Nuggets still don’t have a general manager to orchestrate all of this, meaning I would be SHOCKED if Denver didn’t simply just run it back.

We will see.

Offseason Scenarios: What if the Denver Nuggets HAVE to make a big trade? Mile High Sports.

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