What is happening between Iran, Israel and the US right now is madness. It is a vicious, simple-minded, ignorant affair, with no consideration of the value of human life or the most basic level of geopolitical responsibility.
Benjamin Netanyahu has been agitating against Iran for decades. In 1995, he said: “Iran will be capable of producing – alone, without importing anything – nuclear bombs within three to five years.” In 1996, he warned that “time is running out”.
In 2015, Netanyahu flew to Washington and delivered a speech at the US Capitol, at Republican invitation, attacking Barack Obama’s planned agreement with Iran. It was an astonishing affront, contravening the most elementary diplomatic codes. Imagine, for a moment, Keir Starmer travelling to the US, at Democrat invitation, to attack Donald Trump’s foreign policy. It would be considered a national insult. And yet if Netanyahu does it, it is somehow OK.
Netanyahu was outraged because the Obama deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), lifted sanctions on Iran and allowed it to once again use the global financial system for trade. In exchange, inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) were able to access any site, anywhere in the country, at any time. They were able to continually monitor Iran’s declared nuclear sites and verify that no fissile material was moved covertly to a new location.
In his speech, Netanyahu said the deal would “all but guarantee that Iran will get those nuclear weapons” and that it could end up sparking a “nuclear nightmare”. In fact, over the next few years Iranian nuclear development activity stopped, except insofar as it was allowed for civilian use as per the terms of the agreement. It was a complete vindication of the Obama approach.
In May 2018, Trump abandoned the deal and reinstated all sanctions on Iran. Iran naturally responded by breaching the deal’s restrictions.
What followed was a disaster. By November 2021, it had stockpiles of enriched uranium many times over the prescribed limit, with material enriched to a level of purity just under weapon requirements. As the Institute for Science and International Security has documented, the period after Trump killed the deal saw a sudden rise in the installation of advanced centrifuges and uranium enrichment.
It is hard to think of a more decisive and comprehensive refutation of two men’s reputations than what was presented here. If the world made the slightest bit of sense, this alone would have been enough to condemn both Trump and Netanyahu to the dustbin of history. And yet here we are, watching them pursue their agenda in the most irresponsible way imaginable all over again.
Netanyahu has made a career of trying to humiliate US presidents. From Bill Clinton onwards he has sought to direct US foreign policy in a way no other world leader has dared. The 2015 speech to the US Capitol was merely the most patent example.
square SARAH BAXTER Trump is itching to attack Iran – and take the glory
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Previous presidents, however, managed to keep Netanyahu under control when it came to Iran. This president is simply not strong enough to do so. Detailed and thoroughly sourced reports in the New York Times have documented the events of the last few weeks. They reveal that Trump was told that Israel was highly likely to attack, with or without US support, at a Camp David retreat meeting on 8 June. Far from having the ability to veto the action, the US President was barely consulted.
This is what happens when a world power loses its authority. The last few days have been full of breathless reports about how Trump is keeping the world on tenterhooks by not revealing whether he will participate. It is an astonishingly gullible misreading of the situation. In reality, this is one of the starkest humiliations we’ve seen of a sitting US president. As US power wanes, countries now simply act without bothering to check whether they have US approval.
When Israel first launched the attack, the Trump White House seemed to want to distance itself from it. Secretary of State Marco Rubio made no mention of standing with Israel that evening. But the next morning, Trump woke up to see his favourite TV channel, Fox News, portraying the strikes as an act of Israeli military genius; it was at that point, it seems, that he started trying to claim credit for them. This is exactly as stupid as you expect.
Trump has now spent several days in a state of confusion and indecision over whether America would join more stridently in Netanyahu’s attack.
Even if Netanyahu’s attack satisfied its short-term objectives, which is perfectly possible, it could have unforeseeable long-term consequences in a highly volatile region. What happens if one of the Iranian counter-attacks gets through and kills thousands of Israelis? What happens if a strike against US military sites in Iraq, Qatar or Kuwait succeeds and kills thousands of Americans? Would either of these men be able to face down the demands for massive reprisals? Very quickly, we would all be caught up in a catastrophic escalation dynamic.
An American attack on Iran would be an act of belligerence, murderousness and lunacy. The idea is an affront to the very notion that we should use negotiation, not assault, as the solution to geopolitical problems. It is the triumph of ignorance and hatred over cooperation and reason.
Britain should have nothing to do with it – not one single thing. It should provide no assistance whatsoever, in any form.
We might not be able to stop it, but we can, at the very least, distance ourselves from it and try to prevent any further escalation. Indeed, we must do so – for the sake of morality, security and geopolitical decency.
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