Dollar keeps a touch lower so far in European morning trade ...Middle East

After a more defensive mood yesterday, broader markets are sensing some cautious optimism so far on the day. All eyes are staying on the Middle East, awaiting the potential for US intervention on the conflict between Iran and Israel. Geopolitical tensions continue to run high and that's the key development to watch out for in the day(s) ahead.

But for the time being, investors are hoping to slowly fade that into the background with some careful gains in equities today. It doesn't take away from the steeper decline yesterday but the risk tone is at least a bit better today. S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% with European indices also holding marginal gains now. The DAX is up 0.1% with the CAC 40 up 0.2% on the day.

In FX, the dollar is keeping a little lower but nothing that really stands out for the most part.

EUR/USD is up 0.2% to 1.1509 but remains anchored somewhat by large option expiries at the 1.1500 mark today. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is down 0.2% to 144.97 as it continues to get sucked in by the 145.00 mark. There was a tentative push higher yesterday with a stronger daily close but buyers haven't been able to build on that. The figure level remains a key resistance point over the past few weeks for the pair.

Then, we have AUD/USD which is up 0.4% to 0.6500 currently. The pair hasn't been able to firmly shake off the figure level whatsoever in the past few weeks. And the late May high at 0.6537 is also acting as a secondary resistance point on the daily chart as seen below.

Besides watching out for geopolitical developments, we'll also be getting the US weekly jobless claims later before the FOMC meeting decision. All that before a US holiday for tomorrow to keep things a bit slower before we get to the final stretch of the week. That said, there will still be the SNB and BOE policy decisions to follow on Thursday in Europe.

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