Fundamental Overview
Gold recently got a boost from safe haven flows triggered by the Israel and Iran attacks. Those flows eventually reversed as the market started to look through the conflict given that key macro factors like energy supply didn’t get impaired.
Yesterday, tensions rose as the probabilities for direct US involvement increased and traders feared an attack in the Asian session. That didn’t happen but it’s said that the next 24/48 hours will be key. Those tensions triggered some risk-off flows across the board, but interestingly gold didn’t react that much.
In the bigger picture though, gold remains in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid Fed easing and just a repricing in rate cuts expectations could trigger corrections in the short term.
Gold Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that gold eventually rejected the key 3438 level as the sellers piled in to target a pullback into the major upward trendline. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the major trendline to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 3120 level next.
Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. We can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the major trendline next.
Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that bearish momentum is waning as we approach the trendline. This is generally a signal that we either get a bounce or a breakout. The buyers will look for a bounce around the trendline and will likely increase the bullish bets on a break above the 3405 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break below the trendline to pile in for a drop into the next major trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Tomorrow, we have the US Jobless Claims and the FOMC Policy Decision.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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