It's been a pretty calm session with limited newsflow and data releases. The highlights of the session include the BoJ decision and the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict.
The BoJ kept interest rates unchanged at 0.5% and reduced the bond buying tapering plan in fiscal year 2026 as widely expected. BoJ Governor Ueda didn't offer much in terms of forward guidance as he continues to wait for US-Japan trade developments. Overall, it was a non-event.
On the Israel-Iran front, we got reports early in the session of three ships on fire near the Strait of Hormuz which raised fears of Iran impairing the world's most important oil chokepoint. It was eventually reported that it was just an incident between two oil tankers unrelated to the conflict.
On the data side, the German ZEW survey showed a strong rebound in business sentiment amid recent growth in investment and consumer demand alongside the new government's fiscal policy measures. This is a trend we've been witnessing in most soft data since the trade war de-escalated. And that should continue.
Trump has also delivered some comments on trade deals but the gist of it is that they are still in the negotiating process. Tariffs don't matter much for the market anymore given that the deadline will be inevitably extended and the expectation is that eventually we'll end up with an average of 10% tariff rate.
As long as the other pro-growth drivers like Trump's "big, beautiful bill" and rate cuts remain intact, growth expectations will remain positive.
In the American session, we have the US Retail Sales, Import Prices, Industrial Production and the NAHB Housing Market Index coming up, with the BoC Meeting Minutes getting released late in the day.
The focus will be on the US Retail Sales report. The consensus sees a negative figure for May with -0.7% M/M expected vs +0.1% prior. The ex-Autos measure is seen at +0.1% vs +0.1% prior, while the Control Group is expected at +0.3% vs -0.2% prior.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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