It is said that if cigarettes were invented today, they would never be allowed to go on sale.
They are the only consumer product that kills their purchasers when used as intended – causing an early death in half of all lifelong smokers.
And of the estimated 8 million premature deaths a year caused by tobacco, over a million of those are among non-smokers, from breathing in other people’s second-hand smoke.
To be fair to smokers, most actually want to quit and have tried several times – but they cannot, because the nicotine in cigarettes is so addictive.
If only we could turn back the clock and get rid of the problem by just making smoking illegal.
In a roundabout way, that is what a radical new law, due to come into force in 18 months’ time, is seeking to do.
Under the Tobacco and Vapes Bill, currently progressing through parliament, the UK will become the first country in the world to subject tobacco sales to steadily rising age restrictions.
As in most countries, it is currently illegal for UK shops to sell cigarettes to under-18s. Under the new law, that age limit will start nudging up, by one year every year.
So, by 2034, it will be illegal for anyone 25 and under to buy cigarettes. By 2044, that will have risen to 35, and so on. Eventually, cigarettes will be banned for everyone.
It sounds like a cunning plan. Unfortunately, it is wrong-headed and unworkable, and if Australian anti-smoking legislation has anything to teach us, it will foment a wave of organised crime.
Let’s start with the basic principle. It is of course hard to pinpoint the moment we reach adult maturity, but we have to draw a line somewhere; in the UK, as in most of the world, the age of full legal capacity is 18.
There is something fundamentally strange and illogical about the prospect of two young adults, aged 21 and 20, walking into a shop and one of them being able to legally buy a pack of cigarettes, while for the other, it would be illegal. Yet that is set to be the case very soon.
Secondly, most smokers begin their habit well before the current legal age of 18, often when in their mid-teens. They get cigarettes from friends and relatives, or from shops that want a sale more than they care about following rules.
It is hard to imagine that any of those sources will have more respect for a bizarre new law than they do for current rules. When the law becomes an ass, it is less likely to be obeyed.
Any such loss of respect and compliance with the law would be especially concerning given a third likely problem: a boost to the black market cigarette trade.
The black market is the chief obstacle after outlawing any popular consumer product. This was illustrated most famously in 1920s America when the outlawing of alcohol led to a crime wave.
You might think that doesn’t have much relevance for today, but recent events in Australia, a country with a similar culture to the UK, suggest it does.
In contrast with most other places, Australia has long had heavy restrictions on vaping, and its taxes on tobacco are so high that legal cigarettes are effectively priced out of reach for some people.
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All countries have tobacco taxes of course – sorely needed to give some recompense for its public health toll.
But in Australia, the excise rate has tripled over the past 10 years, and now accounts for 70 per cent of the average cost of $40 (£29) for a pack of 20 cigarettes – about £20, the highest price of any developed country, according to The Guardian.
It’s estimated that up to one in three cigarettes bought in Australia are now black market ones, smuggled in from abroad, and widely available in high street shops for less than half the price of legal packs.
Criminal gangs are fighting to control the tobacco and vape black markets, leading to fire-bombings of shops and street shootings. There have been over a hundred arson attacks in Melbourne, the country’s biggest city; the first fatality came this year when 27-year-old Katie Tangey was caught up in a turf war when she was house-sitting for someone else.
As a result, some Australian politicians have called for cuts to cigarette excise duty.
It’s quite plausible the UK could go down the same route. Already, according to a Tobacco Control study, about one in 10 smokers are buying illegal products. It is not hard to imagine that the black market will expand to encompass a new cohort of young adult smokers when the Tobacco and Vapes Bill takes effect.
The fact that the UK would be the first country to introduce rising age restrictions is being portrayed as a sign we are being bold and far-sighted. But it also means the approach is untested. New Zealand once had places for a similar scheme, but backed out last year.
The bill is popular with the public. Surveys show it is supported by two-thirds of people – unsurprising, as today, only about one in eight people smoke. Most non-smokers – me included – find it a smelly and revolting habit, and smokers and non-smokers alike would generally prefer it if our children never take up the habit.
But the general public are not experts on how international black markets work, nor on how well-meant public health initiatives can sometimes have unintended effects.
Just because something has popular support, that doesn’t mean it is the right thing to do. In fact, it could have deadly consequences.
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