Group F at the 2025 Club World Cup begins on Tuesday. We look ahead to the action with our Ulsan vs Mamelodi Sundowns prediction and preview.
Ulsan vs Mamelodi Sundowns Stats: The Key Insights
Mamelodi Sundowns are strongly favoured by the Opta supercomputer, winning 49.8% of the pre-match simulations. This will be the first ever competitive meeting between teams from South Korea and South Africa. Sundowns forward Lucas Ribeiro Costa was involved in more goals (25) than any other player in the South African Premiership in 2024-25.If either Ulsan or Mamelodi Sundowns have serious designs on causing something of a stir and reaching the knockouts of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup, their Group F opener provides an opportunity neither can pass up.
After Group A, this is the group that the Opta supercomputer deems to have the smallest disparity in quality between best and worst.
While Borussia Dortmund are considered comfortable favourites, with their pre-tournament chances of progression at 92.7%, and Ulsan (20.8%) rated as the least likely to go through, that 71.9 difference in percentage points was the second smallest between favourites and outsiders in a group at this tournament.
As such, games between Ulsan, Sundowns and Fluminense are likely to be pivotal, and the former pair each have a chance to hit the ground running at the Inter&Co Stadium in Orlando on Tuesday.
This will be the first time clubs from South Korea and South Africa have met in competitive competition, though both of these clubs do have some history on the global stage.
Each participated in the previous format of the Club World Cup, with Ulsan appearing twice, the most of any South Korean team. They lost all four matches they played, though.
The Sundowns featured in one prior edition of the competition in 2016 when it was considerably smaller in scale, heading home having lost both of their matches to Japanese opposition.
They are considered favourites here, though, and they’re very accustomed to winning.
With 24 wins during their 2024-25 title-winning season, Bafana ba Style – or ‘the Stylish Guys’ – set a new record for wins in a single South African Premiership season.
That took them to their 15th South African Premiership title, more than all other clubs have combined (14 wins), and it was also their eighth in succession.
Ulsan’s three K-League 1 titles in a row over the past three seasons look considerably less impressive by comparison, while their streak also appears destined to end this term as they’re well adrift of the summit.
They qualified for the Club World Cup as the best-ranked eligible team in the AFC four-year ranking, while the Sundowns booked their place by virtue of being the second-best-ranked eligible team in the CAF four-year ranking behind Espérance Sportive de Tunis.
While both teams have lots of homegrown representation in their squads, it’s highly likely the difference makers could be Brazilian.
Sundowns striker Lucas Ribeiro Costa scored (16) and was directly involved in the most goals (25 – 16 goals and 9 assists) in the South African Premiership in 2024-25. He also had the most shots (73), shots on target (33), touches in the opposition’s box (137) and the best xG (10.3) among all players in the competition.
And on the Ulsan side, Erick Farias has netted eight times this season, a figure only two players in the K-League 1 can better. He was also among the goals as Ulsan beat MLS side Charlotte 5-2 in a behind-closed-doors friendly last week.
Ulsan vs Mamelodi Sundowns Prediction
The Opta supercomputer considers the Sundowns to be almost twice as likely to win this game as their opponents, coming out on top in 49.8% of the latest 10,000 simulations.
Ulsan took all three points and gave their last-16 hopes a massive boost in 25.7% of the sims, while 24.5% ended level.
Ahead of the tournament, the Sundowns were deemed the likeliest to go through to the last 16 with Dortmund, progressing 47.1% of the time. Ulsan did so in 20.8%, making them Group F underdogs.
Ulsan vs Mamelodi Sundowns Squads
Ulsan HD
Jo Hyeon-woo, Moon Jung-in, Ryu Seong-min, Kang Min-woo, Seo Myung-gwan, Kang Sang-woo, Kim Yong-gwon, Yoon Jong-gyu, Park Min-seo, Lee Jae-ik, Milosz Trojak, Choi Seok-hyeon, Jung Woo-young, Darijan Bojanic, Ko Seung-beom, Kim Min-woo, Um Won-sang, Lee Jin-hyun, Lee Hee-gyun, Gustav Ludwigson, Kim Min-hyeok, Lee Chung-yong, Yoon Jae-seok, Matías Lacava, Park Sang-jun, Back In-woo, Erick Farias
Head Coach: Kim Pan-gon
Mamelodi Sundowns
Ronwen Williams, Denis Onyango, Reyaad Pieterse, Mothobi Mvala, Divine Lunga, Aubrey Modiba, Thapelo Morena, Mosa Lebusa, Keanu Cupido, Grant Kekana, Khuliso Mudau, Malibongwe Khoza, Neo Maema, Siyabonga Mabena, Teboho Mokoena, Themba Zwane, Marcelo Allende, Jayden Adams, Bathusi Aubaas, Tashreeq Matthews, Sphelele Mkhulise, Peter Shalulile, Lucas Ribeiro, Arthur Sales, Lebogang Mothiba, Kutlwano Letlhaku, Iqraam Rayners
Head Coach: Miguel Cardoso
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic men’s football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off, here are the Opta Power Rankings for both sides.
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Ulsan vs Mamelodi Sundowns Prediction: 2025 FIFA Club World Cup Preview Opta Analyst.
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