Israel’s massive military assault on Iran, dubbed “Operation Rising Lion,” marks a departure from the shadow war tactics that have defined Israel-Iran hostilities in recent years. No longer content with “mowing the lawn,” Israel has embarked on a full-scale effort to reshape the regional order — a high-risk endeavour that the country appears far too diplomatically isolated to sustain.
Israel’s military operations, particularly its widely condemned campaign in Gaza, have left it increasingly abandoned on the world stage. European powers have distanced themselves over civilian casualties and blockades, while even the Donald Trump-aligned MAGA faction in the US has grown wary of Benjamin Netanyahu’s manoeuvring to drag America into yet another Middle Eastern conflict.
The strike on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, though tactically successful, seems politically desperate — an attempt by Netanyahu to escape growing isolation and sabotage nuclear negotiations that might have produced outcomes unacceptable to Israel’s ideological hawks.
Israel has penetrated deep into the heart of a porous and increasingly unpopular Iranian regime. Its foreign intelligence service Mossad has curated an expansive network within Iran capable of supporting operations with logistics, funding, and manpower. These assets have allowed for significant pre-attack sabotage — disabling missile launchers, weakening air defences — granting the Israeli Air Force an unobstructed corridor to Tehran, some 1,500 kilometres from Israeli territory. With Syrian airspace repurposed as a refuelling zone, over 200 Israeli aircraft have operated largely with impunity over Iranian skies, commanding near-complete air superiority. Israel announced on Monday that it had established “full air superiority” over Tehran.
The Fordo (Fordow) uranium enrichment facility, south of the capital Tehran. Iranian authorities said on Friday that nuclear sites at Fordow and Isfahan had not been hit in Israel strikes, according to the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (Photo: Maxar Technologies / AFP)Key surface structures at Iran’s Natanz nuclear site have been destroyed. Several nuclear scientists and senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and military commanders have been assassinated. From a military perspective, Israel has dealt a devastating blow, setting Iran’s nuclear programme back by months — perhaps even years.
Yet caveats abound. The core of Iran’s nuclear capability lies buried in Fordow, beneath 45 metres of mountain. Destroying it would require either US bunker busters or an audacious Mossad operation. Simultaneously, Israel’s campaign of assassinations — extending beyond nuclear scientists to high-ranking IRGC commanders — risks turning tactical success into strategic overreach, especially if Iran interprets these moves as precursors to regime change.
Iran’s retaliatory arc
Initially paralysed, Iran has now transitioned into a calibrated response mode, mobilising its ballistic missile arsenal. Civilian and infrastructure damage in Israel has been severe, despite the effectiveness of Israeli air defences. With potentially a few thousand missiles remaining, Iran could sustain its barrages at current levels for several more days, inflicting additional damage. This might seriously test the resilience of Israeli civilians enduring the most intense attacks on their homeland since Saddam Hussein’s Scud missile strikes during the Gulf War.
Trails of Iranian missiles launched at Israel are seen in the sky from the Nuseirat refugee camp in the besieged Gaza Strip (Photo by Eyad BABA / AFP)Israel’s military can sustain the strikes for now. Key critical infrastructures such as air bases and air defences remain intact. Critical civilian infrastructure such as ports and, most importantly Ben Gurion airport, remain operational. But Iran could decide to broaden its target list including Israel’s power grid or even as a wild card its nuclear power plant in Dimona.
Despite Iran’s missile capabilities, strategic patience could benefit Israel in the mid-term. Israel retains air superiority and technological edge. While Iran is vast — 160 times the size of Lebanon and 36,000 times larger than Gaza — the Israeli Air Force has shown capacity to sustain deep strikes. If domestic unity holds and operational tempo remains manageable, Israel could pursue a slow “boil the frog” strategy, incrementally eliminating senior Iranian leaders and fostering a climate of internal disintegration.
A true wild card would be the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei — a move that could trigger a succession crisis within Iran’s deep state. Israel’s willingness to eliminate figures like Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah makes this scenario not entirely implausible.
However, there is a paradox. The deeper Israel cuts into Iran’s leadership and infrastructure, the more likely Iran’s hardliners will advocate for nuclear breakout. If, as Israel has assessed, Iran is already nearing zero breakout time, the regime may conclude that nuclear weapons are the only credible deterrent to ensure its survival. In this sense, Israel risks triggering a self-fulfilling prophecy: the very acceleration of Iran’s nuclear weaponisation it seeks to prevent.
The pivotal role of the United States
Trump’s claim to be a “peace president” is unravelling. He failed to contain Netanyahu and is now scrambling to reframe the narrative as part of a calculated pressure campaign against Iran. But Gulf mediators in Oman and Qatar are sceptical. They see little chance of Iran returning to the negotiation table in the short run unless it can frame its bloodied nose into a resilience narrative.
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Trump must now pull every lever available to rein in Netanyahu. Strong-arming Tehran into a deal is not the same as brokering a Manhattan real estate agreement. A regime fearing for its survival will not negotiate from a position of trust. If the US escalates or appears complicit in Israel’s continued attacks, Iran may unleash its full retaliatory capacity — targeting US bases in the Gulf, energy infrastructure, and even closing the Straits of Hormuz. The global economic shock would be immediate.
Still, a path forward remains. If Trump can extend genuine security guarantees — underwritten by Gulf states eager to restore stability — Iran may recognise the opportunity to sue for peace. While Israel is unlikely to achieve a clean strategic victory, Iran also lacks the long-term capacity to sustain this war. The wiser course may be to leverage current tactical gains into a comprehensive nuclear deal.
Israel’s tactical and operational successes need to be translated into strategic victory. Only Washington can broker such an outcome. If left to drag on, Netanyahu’s campaign risks resembling past Israeli operations in Gaza and Lebanon — military victories with no political resolution of underlying root causes. Historically, Israel has excelled on the battlefield but failed to secure the strategic outcomes necessary to cement its victories. Without diplomatic closure, this war too may end with root causes unresolved, setting the stage for an even more dangerous future conflict.
Dr Andreas Krieg is a Middle East analyst and assistant professor at the School of Security of King’s College London
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