The four ways the Iran-Israel conflict could lead to wider war ...Middle East

Israel has launched a wave of attacks on Iran, killing senior military leaders and nuclear scientists, as well as hitting sites linked to Iran’s nuclear programme.

In response, Iran has launched more than 100 drones at Israel.

It marks the latest escalation in an ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel. But what happens now?

Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former senior British Army officer, said that while Iran has been humiliated by the attacks, it has limited actions for a response.

“What you would have expected a few years ago is that Iran would rely on its proxies, particularly Hezbollah and the Houthis and Hamas, [to respond],” he said. “But the Israelis have pretty much destroyed Hezbollah. They are no longer an effective fighting force. The Houthis in a similar fashion, and what’s left of Hamas is focused on Gaza.”

Iran’s missile strikes have also proved relatively ineffective against Israel in the past, de Bretton-Gordon said, with barrages of drones launched in April and October last year being almost entirely thwarted by Israeli air defences.

“At the moment, it’s very difficult to see how Tehran could retaliate in any way that would really affect Israel,” de Bretton-Gordon said.

But there are still ways in which Israel’s attack could escalate. Iran may feel it has no other choice than to redouble efforts towards a nuclear bomb, experts said.

The Islamic regime has said its nuclear programme “only serves peaceful purposes” as a deterrent and that “nuclear weapons have no place in our doctrine”, but this has been met with skepticism by some analysts.

Iran almost certainly does not yet have nuclear weapons yet, according to the intelligence company Janes, so its immediate nuclear threat to other countries today is “minimal”.

However, it does have some of the capabilities needed to create a bomb, including the ballistic missiles that could theoretically be used to carry nuclear warheads, and uranium supplies.

Darya Dolzikova, senior research fellow at RUSI said that if Iran decides to produce a nuclear weapon “it would likely do that at hardened and potentially still secret sites” which may not have been hit in the Israeli attacks.

“The concern is whether these attacks finally convince Iran that it has no choice but to develop a nuclear weapon and whether Israel has done sufficient damage to prevent Iran from being able to act on such a decision,” she said.

2. Red Sea conflict reignites

Iran may also decide to hit US assets in retaliation for the White House’s long term support for Israel – most likely through proxy groups – including reigniting attacks on ships in the Red Sea by the Iran-backed Houthi rebel group.

A wave of attacks killed sailors and caused chaos for global shipping, a key part of international trade, before a ceasefire was agreed between the US and the Houthis last month.

The US has already evacuated non-essential staff from Iraq out of fear of retaliatory attacks.

Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow in Middle East security at RUSI, said that “Pandora’s box has been cast wide open” through Israel’s attack.

“The fragile US-brokered ceasefire with the Houthis in Yemen now hangs in the balance – potentially unravelling if the group is mobilised to act on Iran’s behalf,” she said.

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How Iranian retaliation could draw in US forces and set the Middle East on fire 

“Any such move would reverberate far beyond Yemen, threatening maritime security in the Red Sea and risking direct entanglement of the US and UK in a widening regional conflict.”

The first ship sunk by a Houthi attack, in early March last year, was a British-owned vessel, and the UK has been involved in airstrikes on Houthi bases in Yemen.

Farea Al-Muslimi, research fellow at Chatham House, said that with other proxy groups weakened, the Houthis were “poised to take a leading role” in retaliation to repay decades of Iranian support, and that the group is “known for their recklessness”.

“Their response is likely to go far beyond continued attacks on Israel,” he said.

“Strikes in the Red Sea will likely resume, the ceasefire with the United States may unravel, and we shouldn’t be surprised if Saudi Arabia and the UAE are dragged back into direct conflict in Yemen.

“Attacks by the Houthis on US military bases in the Gulf, the Horn of Africa, and naval forces at sea are also highly plausible.”

If the conflict expands to bring in the US, the UK may provide intelligence support but is unlikely to deploy troops, de Bretton-Gordon said.

“Certainly the music coming out of Whitehall at the moment is to sit back,” he said.

“However, the UK did support the Americans and the Israelis in April and October to take down missiles fired at Israel with RAF jets out of Cyprus.

“Britain still has some very considerable intelligence collecting capability, and Britain historically has a role and an interest in Iran.

“I would not expect to see any conventional military capability being involved here, but I am sure if the US or others require British support on the intelligence side, the Government would consider that.”

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4. Middle East is destabilised

Further attacks risk widening the attacks into a regional conflict, Chatham House director Maddow Brown said.

“There is concern across the Gulf that Iran may choose to hit back not just at Israel but at neighbours who are close to the US,” she said.

“The strikes could destabilise Syria where the success of the new government – or otherwise – will affect the wider region.”

Ozcelik said that Iran’s retaliation “risks reshaping the strategic landscape of the Middle East.”

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