The Relay Breakdown: Men’s 4×100 Medley ...Middle East

By Sam Blacker on SwimSwam

2025 U.S. NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

Men’s 100 Backstroke — Final

Men’s 100 Breaststroke — Final

Men’s 100 Butterfly– Final

Men’s 100 Freestyle — Final

After the conclusion of the 100 backstroke tonight, all four stroke 100’s have come and gone in Indianapolis. The 100 freestyle and butterfly saw no surprises in top spot, as the #1 seed took the win, but the 100 breaststroke and backstroke tonight were far more open – especially after top seed Shaine Casas scratched the backstroke heats.

So, what does all this mean for Team USA’s 4×100 medley relay this summer? We looked at this before the start of the championships, but now know who will be on the team – and kudos to you if this was the quartet you had down.

Stroke-By-Stroke

Last year’s Olympic Trials featured a familiar face winning three of the four stroke 100s. Ryan Murphy, Nic Fink and Caeleb Dressel took the wins in backstroke, breaststroke and butterfly and were subsequently on the finals relay in Paris.

All three are skipping the National Championships  and by extension worlds this year. This introduced a considerable amount of uncertainty, which came to the fore today – both of the event winners in the 100 backstroke and 100 breaststroke are first time National Teamers this year.

Jack Alexy and Shaine Casas are a world-class back half, although of the four swimmers now projected to be on the relay only Alexy has swum on a summer medley relay before for the US. 

Casas swam fly on the men’s relay at the 2024 Doha World Championships, splitting 50.99 at a meet where he was only 52.21 individually, so a 50-low could be on the cards. However, the swimmers that tend to benefit more from a flying start on fly are those with a strong second 50. 

For Casas, who was out in 23.40 yesterday and 23.31 in his PB (50.40), there isn’t really half-to-three-quarters of a second to drop on the first 50. All of the swimmers in Paris who broke 23 on the way out have 50 PBs at least three-tenths faster than Casas, other than Ilya Kharun, who can be much quicker than 23.09 (or even his unofficial 22.93) in the 50. 

2024-2025 LCM Men 100 Fly

However, by forgoing the 100 backstroke he has made his intentions clear that the 100 fly will be a focus. He’s 4th in the world so far this year, is quick enough to be in the World final and he can without a doubt be 50-flat on this relay. He will need to be.

McKean is the bolter of the squad, dropping over two seconds in the last 12 months. He has one swim under the 1:00-barrier, one swim under the 59-second barrier, is #T-6 all-time with Eric Shanteau among US men and the second-fastest man in the World so far this year. 

2024-2025 LCM Men 100 Breast

It’s hard to believe all that comes from the same swimmer, and by virtue of his rapid rise will be the least predictable part of this relay. He was no worse than his flat -start time on relays at Junior Pan Pacs last year, splitting 1:01.15 and 1:00.35 after going 1:01.13 individually.

He is precisely the kind of swimmer who will benefit from the need-for-speed first 50 on a flying split. He had a wicked second 50 tonight of 31.29 and was 31.63 this morning. The first of those is about on par with peak Nic Fink, and it would not be a shock if he was in the 58-mid range at Worlds. 

Tommy Janton is probably the shock of the Championship so far. He was 8th at last year’s Olympic Trials, setting his previous best of 53.61 in the semi-finals, and snuck into tonight’s final by just over a tenth. 

The outside smoke paid off for him as he was around half a second faster tonight on both 50s, splitting 25.61/27.39 to go 53.00, a big drop, but that is the slowest national Champion since 2015 when Nick Thoman went 53.23.

For Championships held in years where a National Team was selected, this was the slowest winning time since David Plummer won the 2008 Olympic Trials in 53.60. 

For the US, who in World and Olympic finals have hit the wall at the end of the backstroke leg no lower than third since the 2001 World Championships (when they were DQed), this year will come as a shock. 

There are five countries who should comfortably touch the wall ahead of the US after leg 1 this year. All have swimmers who have been under 52.5 in the last 12 months.

If either of Poland or Hungary make the final you can add them to the list as well. The breaststroke leg will be a gauntlet for McKean to run, likely starting in the wash of swimmers much bigger than he is, unsurprising given the age difference. 

Jack Alexy is the one bona-fide 100m star on this relay, #6 all-time in freestyle and the fastest man in the last five years not named David Popovici or Pan Zhanle. He is the fastest man in the world so far this season, and the only one under 47 seconds

2024-2025 LCM Men 100 Free

There is of course a caveat with him too – he has been better individually than on relays at his two major long course meets, and his best-ever split (47.00) is a hundredth slower than his flat-start best.

He changed that at Short Course Worlds, over half a second faster on the relays than his gold-medal-winning time from the individual final. Now on his third international team in a row, he’s got the pace and the power to fight through the wash on the final leg.

Even with the star power of Alexy, the U.S. will almost certainly not have the fastest of any of the four legs in the final. They have had at least one in every summer final since 2015.

In Paris, for the first time since the boycotted 1980 Moscow Games, the United States did not win the 4×100 medley relay at the Olympics. China were champions there behind Pan Zhanle’s 45.92 freestyle split, and will return three of their four legs from last year, with the fourth (butterfly) looking stronger with Chen Juner on after he was 51.03 at Chinese Nationals.

Russia will also return to the World stage under the guise of ‘Neutral Athletes B’, and look like the only nation to potentially challenge China this year. Their National Record was recently broken – by the St Petersburg team, not the National Team – at the recent Russian Championships in 3:28.49. Notably, that did not feature Kliment Kolesnikov or Andrei Minakov. 

By the look of things the U.S. will be in a scrap for bronze. Their add-up from Trials here is 3:29.64 – the slowest it has been since 2018. With France, Great Britain, Italy and Australia all in the fight as well, they will be glad of the World’s experience of Jack Alexy and Shaine Casas.

Once again, we’ll have a brief look back at the drops that the medley relay team has made from their Trials add-up, and a very rough prediction for what they may go in Singapore.

Here was what the gaps look like between the add-up from the top four at Nationals and the relay times swum later that summer since 2000.

The Numbers

Fastest three flat-start times of the four stroke 100 champions:

Fastest international three relay splits of the four stroke 100 champions:

Flat-start add-up (last 24 months):

Flat-start + relay split add-up (last 24 months):

You can tell this is a very new relay team – not one has a flying split faster than their flat-start best.

The medley relay team is one of the most consistent at dropping time – they have done so at every major summer meet in in the 21st Century

And then just for fun, here are the U.S. Nationals/Trials to summer relay drops since 2000 based on location. The circles get darker as the year gets later, and any hollow circles indicate a negative drop – that is, an increase.

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