Lions 2025 Squad Builder: Picking Our Second Row and Loose Forwards ...Middle East

Having deliberated over our picks to start in the backline, today we turn our attention to the pack, starting with the second row and back row forwards. Who starts there for the Lions first Test against Australia?

As the countdown to the 2025 Lions tour to Australia continues, we’re building our starting XV for the crucial first Test against the Wallabies.

Using Opta’s comprehensive rugby database, we’re analysing the strengths and skill sets of the leading contenders for each position before locking in our selections.

After several weeks spent deliberating over our backline, today we shift our focus to the pack, starting with the loose forwards and then moving onto the second row.

The back row was arguably the most hotly-contested area in the race for a seat on the plane to Australia, and the competition is set to be even fiercer within the touring party for the coveted 6, 7 and 8 jerseys in the opening Test in Brisbane.

Lions Squad Builder Series:

Lions 2025 Squad Builder: Selecting the Half-Backs for the First Test

Lions 2025 Squad Builder: Picking Our Starting Centres for the First Test

Lions 2025 Squad Builder: Our Starting Back Three for the First Test

Number Eight

Jack Conan will once again be fighting it out to wear the shirt he retained for all three Tests against South Africa in 2021. While his main rival four years ago was Taulupe Faletau, this year he’s set to vie with England’s Ben Earl for a starting berth against the Wallabies.

Earl’s ability to last the full match is impressive, especially for such a demanding role. He’s played the full 80 minutes in 19 of his last 20 appearances for England. In fact, since the 2023 Rugby World Cup, only Lions captain Maro Itoje (1,360) has logged more minutes for a Tier One nation than Earl’s 1,326.

Earl is also the only such player to make over 200 carries in that time (247), and only three players – all fellow Lions in Duhan van der Merwe, Blair Kinghorn, and James Lowe – have gained more metres than his 871. In fact, Caelan Doris, who would’ve been a strong contender for this jersey if not for injury, was the only other forward to make even half as many (509).

Conan won’t give up his spot easily, though, having earned his stripes in limited game time for Ireland during this year’s Six Nations, scoring in three successive games between rounds two and four.

While it is the try-scoring exploits that make the headlines, Conan’s impressive work at the breakdown is also hard to ignore. Among Tier 1 back-rowers to have hit 20+ attacking rucks since the start of 2024, only Peter O’Mahony (94%) has a higher effectiveness rate than Conan (93%), who’s also one of just three back-rows with a rate above 20% at defensive rucks (23%, also Ben Curry and Jasper Wiese).

Our Pick at Number Eight: Ben Earl

That said, it’s Ben Earl’s ability to see out games, which by extension gives Andy Farrell more flexibility in his replacements, that gives him the edge in the clash for the coveted No. 8 shirt.

The fact that two of Conan’s three tries in this year’s Six Nations came as a substitute does indicate that he’ll have a pivotal role to play even if it’s from the bench. The last thing any Australia player will want to see is him warming up as their legs start to tire towards the end of a gruelling Test match.

Flankers

When looking at the specialist flankers for this year’s tour, one thing becomes very obvious: all four of them have spent most of their Test careers playing at openside. Tom Curry started all five of England’s games in this year’s Six Nations at No. 6 however, while Jac Morgan filled that role in two of Wales’ final three fixtures.

As such, those are the two names we’ll be pitting against one another for the blindside spot. Both players missed the 2024 Six Nations through injury before recovering to give stellar performances this year. In fact, they’ve both played the exact same number of Test minutes since the 2023 Rugby World Cup (595), such are the parallels at play here.

While Curry was part of a much more successful England team, Morgan has arguably had the greater individual impact with Wales, averaging nearly twice as many carries (10.5) and tackles (20.4) per 80 minutes as his English counterpart since the start of last year.

It’s not just the quantity, but the quality of his actions that gives Morgan the edge here, with his dominant carry (42%) and tackle success (93%) rates both bettering those of Curry as well.

He also averages significantly more ruck involvements per 80 minutes than Curry, and it’s a similar story when it comes to his efficiency, boasting higher effectiveness rates both at attacking (87% vs 86%) and defensive (16% vs 11%) breakdowns than Curry.

Our Pick at Blindside Flanker: Jac Morgan

His tenacity in defence and relentless work rate at the breakdown gets Jac Morgan the nod over Curry at No. 6. Of course, Maro Itoje, Ollie Chessum and Tadhg Beirne are no strangers to playing blindside flanker either, but given their lack of game time there recently, we’ll be assessing them as second row options.

At openside, 2022 World Rugby Men’s Player of the Year Josh van der Flier crossed for a try when he faced Australia in the 2024 Autumn Nations Series, his third in four games for Ireland last November. He went on to start all five games for Ireland in this year’s Six Nations.

A constant presence at the breakdown, only Itoje (514) has hit more rucks than Van der Flier (426) in Tier One rugby since the start of 2024, with the Ireland and Leinster flanker averaging a gargantuan 36.3 hits per 80 minutes.

Last, but certainly not least, we have the wunderkind himself. The word ‘bolter’ may well have been coined to describe Henry Pollock. Thirty-one minutes of Test rugby wouldn’t usually be enough to judge a player’s Lions credentials, but Pollock is something special.

Two tries off the bench against Wales on his Test debut earlier this year made Pollock England’s youngest ever Six Nations try scorer at 20 years and 60 days, as well as the youngest forward to score a brace in the Championship.

He may be yet to fully establish himself on the Test scene, but Pollock’s performances in this season’s Champions Cup more than justified his hype and Lions selection, as he played a pivotal role in helping Northampton Saints to their first final since 2011.

Pollock won five more turnovers than any other player in the competition (19) and was the only one to complete 100+ tackles (103). He also scored the most tries of any forward (7).

While he may be considered too inexperienced to start the first Test, expect him to be a regular fixture in midweek XVs and a formidable weapon from the bench against the Wallabies.

Our Pick at Openslide Flanker: Josh van der Flier

In a contest of two undeniably world class players, we’ve opted for the master over the apprentice, backing Josh van der Flier to ensure the Wallabies don’t have a moment’s peace at the breakdown.

Second Row

With Maro Itoje captaining the 2025 British and Irish Lions, he’s nailed on to make the squad for the opening Test. That means there are likely to be five men fighting it out to partner the England skipper in the engine room.

While we’ll set out our stall early and lock in Maro Itoje as one of our second row picks, we’ll outline why he’d still be in our XV even if he wasn’t captain.

An underrated attribute in any team sport is that of availability, with players able to go 80 minutes time and time again worth their weight in gold. There are few players in the world who can rival Itoje on that front.

In the Six Nations, the Saracen has played the full 80 minutes in every single England game this decade and his current run of playing every possible minute in 30 consecutive games is a Championship record.

Looking at his international career overall, Itoje has played the full 80 minutes in each of his last 35 Tests and failed to play the full game in just one of his last 69.

Having your captain on the pitch for the full game is a huge benefit, but to suggest Itoje is only in our XV for that reason would be doing the 30-year-old a huge disservice.

His work rate is indisputable – he’s averaged 54.4 carries, tackles and rucks combined per 80 minutes since the beginning of 2024. That’s the most of any England player in that time frame and behind only Dafydd Jenkins among Tier One second rows (min. 400 minutes).

He is also a pest at the breakdown, winning 1.2 turnovers per 80 minutes in Test rugby in the last 18 months, the most of any lock, with only four players winning more overall. It’s also the most of any Lions tourist, so he’ll be an important player when it comes to disrupting the Wallabies’ breakdown.

So, who will best compliment the Lions tour captain in the second row?

With Itoje being one of the hardest workers in the squad, it gives some freedom to partner him with a player who can add some impact in the loose.

In the last 18 months of Test rugby, Joe McCarthy has averaged the most carries per 80 minutes of any of this year’s Lions second rows (8.6), while also beating the most defenders (1.5).

Ollie Chessum leads the way for gainline success (54%) and metres gained per 80 minutes (17).

In terms of running intelligent lines and finding gaps in the defence, it is Tadhg Beirne who is the most elusive runner, averaging twice as many line breaks per 80 minutes as any other lock in the touring party (0.4).

The Munster second row is also an excellent link man, averaging 7.2 passes per 80 minutes. Of locks to play the equivalent of six Tests since 2024, none have averaged as many passes as Beirne, with McCarthy the only other Lions lock to average at least five per game.

It may be a small part of the game, but Farrell will expect his big men to be comfortable in this area, utilising soft tip-on passes to change the point of attack during phase play.

Of course, Farrell will also expect his second rows to be defensive rocks and this is where McCarthy and Chessum might find their challenge for the jersey take a real knock.

For all their good ball carrying, the pair average the fewest tackles per game (10 each) of any Lions locks and despite that they also miss almost twice as many as any of their rivals for the jersey, with both sitting on an 81% tackle success rate.

In contrast, Itoje, Beirne and James Ryan all have success rates above 90%. Beirne is the only one to average fewer than one missed tackle per 80 minutes (0.7) and also has the best tackle success rate overall (94%).

He is also a menace at the breakdown, with only Itoje hitting more defensive rucks (10.7) or winning more turnovers (1.2) on average than him (7.0 rucks, 0.8 turnovers).

Despite this, Beirne is also good at not getting on the wrong side of the referee, conceding 0.8 penalties per 80 minutes. Scott Cummings (0.9) is the only other Lion who averages under one, while this is a weakness of the two other Irish second rows (Ryan – 1.5, McCarthy – 1.3). Itoje, too, frequently infringes, so pairing him with someone who doesn’t attract the referee’s ire would be beneficial.

The lineout of course will be an important area, with the Lions both seeking to secure possession and steal it from the Wallabies. Chessum is the king of the skies when it comes to winning lineouts – his averages of 5.8 lineouts won (on his own team’s throw) and 0.7 lineout steals per 80 minutes are comfortably the best rates of any Lion this year, while Cummings is also strong on the opposition throw (0.5 steals per 80).

Our Pick at Second Row: Maro Itoje and Tadhg Beirne

With all things considered, we’re going to lock in (no pun intended) Tadhg Beirne to wear the No. 5 jersey alongside Itoje. The Ireland second row has so few weaknesses: he’s good in open play and at the set-piece, is a menace at the breakdown and rock solid in defence. Together with Itoje he can form a formidable partnership Down Under.

Our Lions XV to face Australia in the first Test is open set. Just the front row remain:

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