By Sam Blacker on SwimSwam
2025 U.S. NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS
Tuesday, June 3 – Saturday, June 7, 2025 Indianapolis, Indiana Indiana University Natatorium LCM (50 meters) World Championship Selection Criteria SwimSwam Preview Index Meet Central Psych Sheets (Updated 6/02) Live Results How To Watch (USA Swimming Network) Prelims Live Recap: Day 1 Finals Live Recap: Day 1Women’s 100 Freestyle — Final
World Record: 51.71 — Sarah Sjöström, Sweden (2017) American Record: 52.04 — Simone Manuel (2019) U.S. Open Record: 52.54 — Simone Manuel, United States (2018) 2024 U.S. Olympic Trials Champion: Kate Douglass — 52.56 World Aquatics ‘A’ Cut: 54.25 Torri Huske (AAC) – 52.43 Gretchen Walsh (NYAC) – 52.78 Simone Manuel (TXLA) – 52.83 Kate Douglass (NYAX – 53.16 Erin Gemmel (TXLA) – 53.51 Anna Moesch (GSCY) – 53.54 Maxine Parker (CA-Y) – 53.56 Claire Weinstein (SAND) – 53.72The 100 freestyle final tonight saw Torri Huske set a new US Open record, taking that crown from fourth-place finisher Kate Douglass. Gretchen Walsh finished second after placing third in 2023 and 2024, and Simone Manuel was under s=53 seconds for the first time since Gwangju back in 2019.
All in all, the relay is shaping up nicely. Erin Gemmell and Anna Moesch add an injection of youth after some big drops today.
The top four will be guaranteed a spot, whilst fifth and sixth will need to wait to see how the team shapes up elsewhere.
What does all this mean for Team USA’s relays this summer?
The Past Is History, the Future Is a Mystery?
After finishing third in 2021 and 2022, the US has taken silver at the last two major meets, including a 3:30.20 Americas record in Paris last year. The Add-up of the top four this year is even faster than it was in 2024, so they could scare the 3:30 barrier in Singapore.
Here was what the gaps look like between the add-up from the top four at Nationals and the relay times swum later that summer since 2000.
The drop in Tokyo, despite finishing third there, was the biggest of the past four years. The difference was tiny in 2023, but stretched back out to 1.73 seconds at the Olympics last year.
We all love to predict how relays will perform before a major summer meet. There are almost no other real opportunities for a top-tier long course relay team to compete, so there’s limited data to go off.
Based on the U.S. Nationals results we’ve built a model to predict the final time for the American 4×100 free relay this summer. To calculate this we’ve considered the National Championship results (top four), previous history of the drops from Nationals to the relay in the summer, and the raw times themselves.
The past four years look something like this:
Year Trials Add-up Predicted Time Range (90% confidence band*) Range (50% confidence band) Actual Relay Time 2021 3:34.59 3:33.03 3:32.71 – 3:33.32 3:32.90 – 3:33.15 3:32.81 2022 3:34.17 3:32.70 3:32.37 – 3:13.02 3:32.57 – 3:32.83 3:32.58 2023 3:32.10 3:31.18 3:30.68 – 3:31.61 3:30.99 – 3:31.39 3:31.93 2024 3:31.87 3:31.02 3:30.50 – 3:31.45 3:30.82 – 3:31.23 3:30.20*This defines the upper and lower limits of a range in which we would be 90% sure that the result would fall – if this was raced 100 times, in 90 of those we’d expect a time in this range.
Overall, we’re not looking for this to give us an absolute relay time to hold ourselves to for the summer – just a range which we (or you) can debate. Without further ado, here are all the numbers from this year’s trials you need to worry about.
The Numbers
Top 4 1 Torri Huske – 52.43 2 Gretchen Walsh – 52.78 3 Simone Manuel – 52.83 4 Kate Douglass – 53.16 Total 3:31.20 Predicted time 3:30.56 Range (90% confidence band) 3:29.99 – 3:30.96 Range (50% confidence band) 3:30.38 – 3:30.78
Fastest three flat-start times of the top-six
Place Swimmer #1 #2 #3 1 Torri Huske 52.29 52.43 52.90 2 Gretchen Walsh 52.78 52.90 52.99 3 Simone Manuel 52.04 52.27 52.54 4 Kate Douglass 52.56 52.57 52.81 5 Erin Gemmell 53.51 53.61 54.13 6 Anna Moesch 53.54 53.69 54.09
Fastest three senior international relay spits of the top six
Place Swimmer #1 #2 #3 1 Torri Huske 51.88 52.08 52.60 2 Gretchen Walsh 52.55 – – 3 Simone Manuel 51.86 51.92 52.00 4 Kate Douglass 51.79 52.28 52.41 5 Erin Gemmell – – – 6 Anna Moesch – – –
Fastest flat-start add-up:
Place Swimmer Time 1 Torri Huske 52.29 2 Gretchen Walsh 52.78 3 Simone Manuel 52.04 4 Kate Douglass 52.56 Total 3:29.67
Fastest flat start + relay split add-up
Place Swimmer Time 1 Simone Manuel 52.04 2 Gretchen Walsh 52.55 3 Torri Huske 51.88 4 Kate Douglass 51.79 Total 3:28.26Anna Moesch will be on her first international team, while Erin Gemmell has only made the team in the 200 free before. However, the top four are seasoned veterans now, each with at least two major international competitions under their belt, and if everything clicks, could give Australia a battle in Singapore.
As a final look ahead, here are the U.S. Nationals/Trials to summer relay drops since 2000. The circles get darker as the year gets later, and any hollow circles indicate a negative drop – that is, an increase.
Read the full story on SwimSwam: The Relay Breakdown: Women’s 4x100m Freestyle
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