What to expect from defence review, from nuclear-armed jets to cyber hackers ...Middle East

The Government will today launch its landmark Strategic Defence Review (SDR), pledging to prepare Britain for “warfighting readiness” in response to escalating global threats.

The document, which is expected to be approximately 130 to 150 pages in length, differs from previous reviews in that it has been led by external experts rather than being conducted internally. It will set out 62 recommendations, which the Government is expected to accept in full.

It is set to warn that the UK is entering the most serious security environment since the Cold War and will highlight the “immediate and pressing” danger from Russia, with China labelled a “sophisticated and persistent challenge”, and Iran and North Korea described as “regional disruptors”.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer described the review, which is set to be unveiled on Monday, as “a blueprint to make Britain safer and stronger, a battle-ready, bomber-clad nation”.

Addressing the media on Monday morning, the PM added that “every part of society, every citizen of this country” has role to play in protecting the country.

Here, The i Paper takes a look at everything we know so far about what will be in the strategic defence review.

Last week, The i Paper exclusively revealed that the UK was planning to deploy cyber experts on the battlefield alongside the regular armed forces to help the military prepare for drone warfare.

It is expected that the review will recommend creating a new “digital warfighting group” with skills in hacking and cyber operations that will work alongside infantry soldiers to scramble enemy drone signals, take down drone “swarms” and launch counter-attacks if the UK is engaged in another war.

The move reflects the realities of present-day conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine, where figures revealed by Western officials earlier this year showed that 80 per cent of battlefield casualties were due to drones.

The Defence Secretary claimed on Sunday morning that Russia was already “attacking the UK daily as part of 90,000 attacks that we get that are linked to different states on our defence system in cyberspace”.

“It’s one of the reasons that we’re acting already by putting an extra billion into creating a new cyber command and to link our Armed Forces with the digital connections that make them more effective in the future,” he told the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme.

New nuclear submarines

The SDR will commit to building 12 nuclear-powered attack submarines in Barrow, Cumbria and Raynesway, Derby, as part of the three-country Aukus programme—a trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The first submarines are expected to launch in the late 2030s, replacing the seven Astute-class submarines, which are tasked with operating worldwide.

It is the first time Britain has disclosed how many new nuclear-powered attack submarines will be built. The previous government had already committed to replacing the Royal Navy’s Astute-class submarines by the late 2030s with Aukus boats, but had not specified the number.

A total of £15bn will also be invested in updating nuclear weapon production at Aldermaston, Berkshire.

The Government has already announced it will spend £1.5bn on building six munitions and energetics factories as part of efforts to “better deter our adversaries”.

The new funding will result in spending on UK munitions reaching £6bn during this parliament, supporting 1,800 jobs across the UK, according to the Ministry of Defence.

Announcing the plans over the weekend, Healey stated that the investment would establish an “always-on” weapons pipeline and support the procurement of up to 7,000 UK-built long-range weapons.

“The hard-fought lessons from Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine show a military is only as strong as the industry that stands behind them,” the Defence Secretary added.

‘HMS Artful’, an Astute-class nuclear-powered attack submarine, at Faslane naval base (Photo: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty)

‘Nuclear-capable’ fighter jets

The SDR is not expected to call for the UK to obtain tactical nuclear weapons specifically, but it’s understood that the Government is considering this move.

Tactical nuclear weapons, which can be launched from planes and deployed at short range, are different to the strategic weapons of the kind that are carried on Britain’s at-sea Trident deterrent, on submarines. The RAF carried air-launched nuclear weapons until the 1990s, when the Blair government discontinued them.

Britain is the only major nuclear power that has only one method of delivering a nuclear weapon, from a submarine at sea, and earlier this month, former Cabinet Secretary Sir Simon Case joined figures calling for the UK to reinstate tactical weapons to its arsenal. It is understood that several military experts, including retired generals, have also advocated for their return.

While the SDR is expected to stress the importance of the nuclear deterrent and recommend some modernisation, it is possible that further details—including an announcement on tactical nuclear weapons—could be made by the Government later this year.

The SDR is set to address falling troop numbers and will recommend that £1.5bn be spent on improving the state of military accommodation, with a particular focus on the 1,000 homes that are most severely affected.

However, the Defence Secretary has stated that efforts to boost military recruitment are unlikely to go ahead until after the next general election, expected in 2029.

Speaking to the BBC on Sunday, Healey said there had been “15 years of a recruitment and retention crisis in our armed forces” as he acknowledged that the size of the army had fallen to a low of 70,860 – below the government’s current target of 73,000 and the lowest level since the Napoleonic War.

Protection from underwater threats

The SDR reportedly recommend setting up an underwater surveillance programme to protect against threats to subsea critical infrastructure. The programme, known as Atlantic Bastion and overseen by the Royal Navy, will guard against Russian sabotage of internet cables and energy pipelines.

The Government previously warned in a defence report in 2021 that Russia is developing “deep-sea capabilities which can threaten undersea cables”.

Underwater cables have been targeted in conflict before, with the most recent example being the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea in September 2022.

The SDR will propose the establishment of a new Home Guard to safeguard airports, communication centres, and other vital aspects of Britain’s critical national infrastructure against drone and unexpected attacks. This new force aims to relieve soldiers and specialised police currently tasked with securing these sites.

Modelled after the 1940s Home Guard unit, formed by individuals too young or old to serve in World War II, the new unit will be operated by volunteers and will function from specific hubs throughout the UK.

Many countries already operate some form of Home Guard, including Denmark, Germany and Sweden.

New fighting methods

The SDR will set out a new fighting method to be adopted by the UK military which will rely more heavily on drones and autonomous systems.

According to The Times, the military is set to adopt the “20-40-40” strategy, which uses 20 per cent traditional heavy equipment such as tanks, 40 per cent single-use munitions like drones and loitering munitions, and 40 per cent reusable, high-end drones for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance.

This would mean that autonomous systems would conduct 80 per cent of the UK’s battlefield operations, which represents a significant shift in the country’s military strategy.

Building a UK ‘Iron Dome’

The i Paper understands that the SDR is expected to recommend increasing the country’s homeland protection against attacks from Russia and other hostile states.

General Sir Richard Barrons, one of the authors of the Strategic Defence Review, is “really into the idea of ‘hedgehog Britain’” where the UK’s missile defence systems would be strengthened, according to military insiders.

This follows calls for the UK to develop its own version of Israel’s Iron Dome missile defence system.

Multiple former defence ministers told The i Paper in October that the UK needs its own version of Israel’s Iron Dome missile defence system to protect it from Russian aggression and growing instability in the Middle East.

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