It’s a crucial Premier League finale in the Champions League race on Sunday. Look ahead to the game at the City Ground with our Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea prediction and preview.
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea Stats: The Key Insights
The Opta supercomputer rates Chelsea as favourites with a 44.1% win probability to Nottingham Forest’s 31%. Forest have won just one of their last seven Premier League encounters with Chelsea. The Tricky Trees have more top-flight wins this season (19) than in the past two combined (18).The stakes will be high to say the least when Nottingham Forest host Chelsea in the Premier League on the final day, with lucrative ramifications.
Either team can still clinch a spot in next season’s Champions League, with Chelsea holding the advantage as they will start the day already in the top five.
Forest, conversely, have to win and hope that at least one of Newcastle United or Aston Villa fail to do so, meaning the hosts need a favour elsewhere even if they emerge with the win at the City Ground.
Regardless of the outcome of this match, Forest are guaranteed to secure European football of some kind as well as their highest Premier League finish since 1994-95, when they came third. If they do make the top five, it would confirm a return to Europe’s premier competition for the first time since the 1980-81 campaign, when they did so as reigning European champions.
It has been an excellent campaign for Nuno Espírito Santo’s men, who have won 19 Premier League games – more than they managed in their previous two top-flight campaigns combined (18). They last won 20+ games in 1994-95 (22), while they have never done so in a 38-game top-flight season.
Chris Wood has been Forest’s talisman this season, with 20 Premier League goals to his name. That represents the most by a Forest player in a campaign since Stan Collymore managed 22 in 1994-95. Wood also has a good record on the last matchday, with four goals in five starts in his team’s final game of a season, including a brace against former club Burnley in 2023-24.
Nuno’s men have gone seven league games without a clean sheet, though, which is not a great omen for goalkeeper Matz Sels, who is joint-top with David Raya on 13 clean sheets this campaign.
The ball may be in Chelsea’s court with respect to securing a top-five berth, knowing that a win will clinch their place assuming Villa do not beat Manchester United by a cricket score. Nevertheless, the Blues are winless on the last three occasions they have finished a Premier League campaign with an away game, losing 3-0 to Newcastle in 2017-18, drawing 0-0 at Leicester City in 2018-19, and losing 2-1 to Aston Villa in 2020-21.
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5 hours ago David SegarForest’s defence may expect a busy outing as only Liverpool (228) have had more shots on target than Chelsea (216) in the Premier League this season, their most in a campaign since racking up 223 in 2019-20.
Cole Palmer has been typically influential for the Blues, creating 87 chances in the Premier League this season – the most by a Chelsea player since Mason Mount in 2020-21 (87), while Eden Hazard in 2018-19 is the last Blues player to tally more (98).
The England ace has also recorded 125 shots, which combined with his chances created represents the most shots and chances created (212) for Chelsea since Didier Drogba in 2010-11 (150 shots, 74 chances created).
Forest will be without Taiwo Awoniyi following the serious abdominal injury he sustained against Leicester, while defender Murillo is a doubt with an ankle issue.
Chelsea, who will contest the Conference League final on Wednesday, still have doubts over Christopher Nkunku and Marc Guiu, while Nicolas Jackson remains suspended.
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea Head-to-Head
Forest have emerged victorious in just one of their past seven Premier League games against Chelsea (D3 L3).
The sole victory in that stretch was a 1-0 win at Stamford Bridge in September 2023.
Chelsea, meanwhile, were 3-2 winners in this exact fixture in the 2023-24 campaign.
Forest and Chelsea drew 1-1 in the reverse fixture in October, with Wood giving the visitors the lead before Noni Madueke equalised.
The Blues have managed to win consecutive away league games at Forest just once, triumphing 3-2 in February 1912 and then earning a 4-0 rout a decade later in December 1922.
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea Prediction
Nottingham Forest know that, realistically, only a victory will do if they want to clinch a top-five berth, and the Opta supercomputer gives them a 31% win probability from 10,000 simulations conducted.
Conversely, Chelsea have a 44.1% chance of emerging with the win and securing their spot at Europe’s top table, while the draw is rated as a 24.9% possibility.
In terms of the final league placings, Forest have a 61.7% chance of remaining exactly where they are in seventh, with that all-important fifth spot rated at 15.3%.
It’s a more positive outlook for Chelsea, who have a 35.8% probability of maintaining fifth place and there is even still a marginal chance of finishing as high as third (3.2%).
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here are the Opta Power Rankings for both sides.
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Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea Prediction Opta Analyst.
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