Predicting the Playoff: No. 1 LSU ...Middle East

If you read that headline, you can assume 1 thing — I’m all in on the 2025 version of LSU.

I haven’t been all in on any version of LSU in the 2020s. That included a 2023 squad that entered the season with a preseason top-5 ranking despite holes galore on the defense. This LSU team might not earn a preseason top-5 ranking, but since the 2024 regular season ended, it checked about every box that a Tiger fan could’ve hoped for. Well, outside of getting No. 1 quarterback recruit Bryce Underwood to the finish line. Perhaps that’s at least partially responsible for the offseason that ensued.

Did Garrett Nussmeier return as the SEC’s best quarterback with go-to receiver Aaron Anderson? Yep. Did LSU retain both coordinators? It did. Most importantly, did Brian Kelly acknowledge the prime opportunity that LSU had to add plug-and-play pieces via the transfer portal? He absolutely did.

That last reason — signing the No. 1 transfer portal class with several projected starters on both sides of the ball — could be the difference in LSU being a borderline Playoff team and truly competing for a national title. In the 2020s, LSU has yet to do that. Shoot, LSU is just looking for its first season-opening win in the 2020s.

Go figure that 2025’s season opener at Clemson could be LSU’s toughest to date this decade. And yet, here we are. All in.

A few things are worth noting before we break down individual Playoff paths. One is that while we’re still in the 12-team era, I’m anticipating a change in 2025. I believe that we’ll get rid of the stipulation that the 4 byes/top-4 seeds will go to the 4 highest-ranked conference champs. One year in, I predict that all parties will get on board with changing that. These rankings, which I’ll roll out over the next 2 weeks, will reflect that anticipated change.

In other words, I won’t try to confuse you with seeding. This will just be based on where they’ll show up in the final Playoff poll. Just in case you forgot what Playoff field entails, here’s a refresher:

Does that all sound good? Good.

Here’s the projected 12-team field so far:

Let’s wrap things up with 1-seed LSU:

Why the Playoff path exists

It exists in part because this should be a top-5 offense in the sport. Nussmeier’s return is a big part of that, but so is that group of pass-catchers. Anderson should be an All-SEC receiver entering the season, and the additions of Nic Anderson (Oklahoma) and Barion Brown (Kentucky) were ideal play-making complements to the dynamic slot receiver. That’s going to be the foundation, along with an experienced interior offensive line that added power conference starters Braelin Moore (Virginia Tech) and Josh Thompson (Northwestern). Even with the NFL losses of multi-year tackle starters Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr., we should see a more consistent ground game with Caden Durham leading the way.

There’s balance in ways that’ll help LSU avoid the stagnant stretches that we saw in early-November. Outside of proven tackles, LSU has everything you’d want in an offense.

Yes, I’m aware that LSU’s 2023 offense was historically prolific and that team still wouldn’t have made the 12-team Playoff. It also had a dreadful defense that led to Kelly gutting his entire staff on that side of the ball. That’s a different story this year.

Even if Harold Perkins doesn’t ever become the game-wrecker that many thought he’d turn into at the college level after his breakout freshman season, there’s still reason to believe that a Year 2 progression awaits the Blake Baker defense. Whit Weeks will be the alpha of that defense, and while Jack Pyburn and Patrick Payton might not become double-digit sack guys, they can be steadying forces as proven power conference edge rushers. On top of that, Mansoor Delane’s versatility will plug holes in an LSU secondary that finally showed that it wasn’t a complete liability down the stretch (nobody threw for 250 passing yards in the last 6 regular-season games). The anticipated DJ Pickett emergence would be a welcome sight.

And what about the schedule, you ask? Doesn’t it feature that daunting opener at Clemson? It does, albeit against a Clemson team that lost all 3 games vs. SEC competition in 2024, but I digress. After that, Ole Miss is the only other team on the schedule who lost less than 4 games. Also of note, LSU beat Ole Miss, who ranks No. 113 in percentage of returning production (LSU is 38th).

A 10-2 mark feels doable. If you’re all in like me, you see an 11-1 regular season, a trip to Atlanta … and then some.

***taps mic*******clears throat****LSU is winning a national title in 2025 pic.twitter.com/OmWsRhzJXC

The potential roadblock

If LSU is left out of the Playoff — that’s something that would be red meat for the anti-Kelly crowd — with an 8-4 or 9-3 record, I believe 2 things would be responsible. One would be that in a post-Campbell/Jones world, Nussmeier spent too much time running for his life instead of carving up defenses. He only scrambled on 7 of the 153 times that he was pressured in 2024.

The other culprit would be that LSU, just as it did last year, struggled against mobile quarterbacks. All of these guys on LSU’s 2025 schedule can make big-time plays with their legs:

That’s 7 guys who can turn a potential defensive weakness into a Playoff-path destroyer. It’s not that LSU will struggle against all of them. Lord knows that they contained Green, Pavia (he was banged up down the stretch) and a limited Lagway, but it was still a weakness. You’d feel better about a Year 2 defense handling that compared to a Year 1 defense, but it can still be a costly Achilles’ heel.

Odds that they win a Playoff game

Don’t mistake my 60% here as doubt. It’s an acknowledgment of the scenario that I’ve created.

In this scenario, LSU’s quarterfinal matchup would be … a rematch vs. Alabama. That’s right. After beating Alabama in the regular season, LSU will be tasked with running it back in the postseason. Shoutout to the 2011 season. It’s happening again. But unlike when that scenario unfolded 14 years ago with LSU setting offensive football back decades in the Alabama rematch, the Tigers pull off the impossible this time.

Beating Alabama twice happens because LSU’s ground game comes into its own at the perfect time. Instead of relying on Nussmeier to pick apart Alabama down the stretch, the Tigers lean on the Tide. The combination of Durham and true freshman Harlem Berry takes over with an offensive line that gets better as the season progresses. LSU’s defense picks up where it left off against Ty Simpson in the regular season with the Blake Baker defense operating at maximum capacity. Kelly even dials up a fake field goal that’s executed flawlessly in a way that makes longtime LSU fans swoon.

Finally, Kelly wins a postseason game that people actually care about. His best team ever marches on to the semifinals.

Predicting the Playoff: No. 1 LSU Saturday Down South.

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