Enab Baladi – Khaled al-Jeratli
Interpretations have varied regarding the implications of the announcement by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) of its dissolution and its abandonment of armed struggle, especially its direct impact in northeastern Syria, where the party historically represents the ideological and military reference for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
The interests in the region where the PKK and its affiliated branches are located intersect, as Turkey has been striking the area for years, demanding the expulsion of the PKK from it, while Western military forces are present under the umbrella of the International Coalition, supporting the SDF, which is controlled by the PKK.
The PKK announced its dissolution and the cessation of its armed movement, which was primarily directed against Turkey, and has branched out against other parties in various regions and countries.
On May 12, in a statement published by Kurdish media, including the Rudaw network (based in Erbil), and delivered by its current leader, Cemil Bayık, the PKK stated that “the decision to disarm and dissolve itself is for the sake of democratic resolution and lasting peace.”
Following the PKK’s announcement of its dissolution, the Turkish newspaper Hürriyet reported that Ankara’s attention turned towards the PKK handing over its weapons, particularly the guided missiles and other equipment that are present in Syria.
It added that the PKK, which is listed as a terrorist organization in Turkey, the US, and European countries, received trucks loaded with weapons and ammunition in Syria under the pretense of fighting the Islamic State group.
While many analyses about the issue abound, the decision to dissolve the PKK appears to be a pivotal turning point in the Syrian equation, but it will remain contingent upon how committed the PKK’s members are to withdrawing from the scene, along with the readiness of both the Kurdish and official Syrian forces to engage in a comprehensive national resolution that exceeds security considerations to address the accumulated security and political issues.
Easing the Turkish justification, but the disagreement is deeper
The presence of the PKK in Syria has provided Turkey with justification for military intervention in northern Syria, and although the SDF denied, over the years, its association with the PKK and the presence of its members and leaders in the region, its commander, Mazloum Abdi, acknowledged their presence but promised to remove them from Syria if a ceasefire with Turkey is achieved.
The Socialist Kurdish Party has created obstacles to understandings between the SDF and Damascus, as it rejected the departure of its members and leaders from the region before guaranteeing that the SDF would have a leading position in Syria, a point previously communicated by Reuters early this year with the commencement of negotiations between the two sides.
In light of the PKK’s self-dissolution, Turkey’s justifications for military action and considering northern Syria a source of security concern appear less resonant, but experts consulted by Enab Baladi believe that the reality goes deeper.
Osama Sheikh Ali, a researcher at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies, stated that Turkey, which has long used the relationship between the SDF and the PKK as a pretext to justify its attacks, may find in the PKK’s dissolution an opportunity to relieve this burden. However, the core of Turkey’s stance is not only related to the organizational link with the PKK, but also its outright rejection of the existence of an independent Kurdish political entity in northeastern Syria, even if this entity severs its ties with Qandil.
The researcher told Enab Baladi that Ankara does not trust the Syrian Kurdish leadership and believes that most of them received their intellectual and military training in the PKK camps in the Qandil Mountains. Therefore, any Kurdish political project will remain, in its view, a threat to Turkey’s national security.
He added that the best option for the SDF would be to continue implementing the agreement with the Syrian government and integrate within the Syrian army as part of an internal political settlement, which would grant it a wider margin for movement on the Syrian scene and spare it clashes with regional parties.
Transition from military to political work
The most recent Turkish official comments regarding the dissolution of the PKK came on May 15, when Zeki Aktürk, spokesperson for the Turkish Ministry of Defense, stated that Turkey would closely monitor “the tangible steps” on the ground regarding the PKK’s weapon handover.
He added that the Turkish armed forces would continue their operations to sweep, identify, and destroy caves, tunnels, mines, and explosives in the areas where the PKK is present until they are certain that the area is free from any threat, according to the Anadolu Agency.
Badr Mulla Rashid, director of the Raman Studies Center, pointed out that the general trend within the PKK indicates a shift away from the idea of armed struggle towards political work, which is expected to also extend to the SDF, especially in light of the agreement reached by Mazloum Abdi with the Syrian government.
Mulla Rashid explained to Enab Baladi that this shift would not leave a significant vacuum in the Syrian Kurdish arena, as the Democratic Union Party (PYD), ideologically linked to the PKK, remains the dominant party.
The researcher believes that the PKK’s resources, which were directed to Qandil, may be redirected to support the Democratic Union Party, allowing it to expand its popular base and increase its political presence, especially given the declining role of the Kurdish National Council (KNC), which is considered its traditional competitor and has received support from Erbil, which has good relations with Turkey.
Challenges of implementation and the fate of PKK cadres
The Syrian government has yet to comment on the PKK’s decision, which dominates the SDF, nor has it indicated its stance on the party’s decision, while the SDF and the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) considered the PKK’s dissolution a positive matter.
As ambiguity surrounds the details of the issue regarding laying down arms, who will receive them, and the individuals wanted by Turkey from the party, among other matters, the ground dimensions in the SDF-controlled areas in Syria remain more severe, as the fate of foreign fighters in the SDF, whom the Syrian government demands to leave, remains unknown.
For his part, Samer al-Ahmad, a researcher specialized in northeastern Syria affairs, told Enab Baladi that the theoretical impact of the dissolution should be significant, given that the party’s cadres, especially the foreign ones, were managing the SDF both security-wise and administratively.
The researcher questioned how prepared these cadres are actually to withdraw or abandon their gains, warning of the possibility of a new organization emerging, bearing a different name but retaining the same solid structure and organizational ties.
Al-Ahmad added that the presence of these cadres, especially given their threats to some SDF leaders and even to Mazloum Abdi, impedes the implementation of current agreements and poses obstacles to moving towards a political settlement. However, he believes that this step came with a Turkish understanding, which suggests that it could have positive implications if Turkey exerts serious pressure to resolve the issue fundamentally—whether in Qandil or in Syria.
Not the first time
The PKK previously announced its dissolution a year after its leader was arrested by Turkish intelligence in Nairobi, Kenya, in 1999, but later reformed and resumed operations against the Turkish army.
In 2013, the party once again engaged in peace talks with Turkey, suspending its military activities as a precursor to holding a conference aimed at ending the hostility with Ankara. However, it resumed its anti-Ankara activities in 2015 after Turkey attacked its sites near the Iraqi border.
Turkey has demanded the dissolution of all military factions stemming from the PKK in Iraq, Turkey, and Syria, a point that the PKK’s statement did not clarify.
The Turkish government has repeatedly called for an end to the PKK’s activities in all three countries, while discussions between Ankara and the Iraqi government continued, which resulted in Iraq listing the PKK on its terrorism lists.
Anticipated repercussions in Syria following PKK’s dissolution Enab Baladi.
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