With just one round of games remaining in the 2024-25 Premier League season, we look at who still has something to play for and what they need to happen on Sunday to achieve it.
As we approach the 38th and final matchday of the 2024-25 Premier League season, there is still a little to be decided.
While Liverpool wrapped the title up with four games to spare, and Southampton, Leicester City and Ipswich Town have had weeks to get over their relegation back to the Championship, the fiercely contested battle for Europe rages on.
The scrap for the UEFA Champions League in particular has arguably never been more open. Liverpool and Arsenal are already cemented in the top two places, but with only one game left for every team, a quarter of the league’s 20 clubs are still fighting over the remaining three spots.
There is also a far smaller – but no less significant – tussle for a potentially profitable eighth place.
Ahead of Sunday’s action, we run through the permutations for each team involved, outlining what they need to do to reach their goal, while also revealing what their respective chances of success are according to the almighty Opta supercomputer.
Manchester City
Opponents: Fulham (A)Opta Supercomputer Chances of UCL Qualification: 96.9%
It hasn’t been the season Manchester City, or anyone, expected, going into it as heavy favourites to win a fifth consecutive Premier League title and ending it finishing outside the top two for the first time since the 2016-17 campaign.
However, Pep Guardiola’s men can still go out on a high, and of the teams chasing Champions League qualification, they are the best placed. Their 3-1 victory at home to Bournemouth on Tuesday took them up to third, with a two-point cushion and significant goal difference advantage over sixth-placed Aston Villa.
That therefore means City realistically only need a point from their trip to Fulham to confirm a spot in the top five, while victory would confirm third place.
The only way a draw would not be enough is if Villa win their game at Manchester United by at least 17 goals; Ruben Amorim’s men have been poor this season, but not that poor.
The lowest City can finish is sixth, which means they will definitely be playing at least Europa League football next season.
Newcastle United
Opponents: Everton (H)Opta Supercomputer Chances of UCL Qualification: 82.7%
Whatever happens, it has already been a fantastic season for Newcastle United, who won their first major trophy in 70 years with their League Cup success in March.
That victory meant they already had European football confirmed in the form of the Conference League, but it’s unlikely they’ll need that particular ticket.
The cherry on top of the campaign would undoubtedly be securing Champions League football. Eddie Howe’s men welcome Everton to St. James’ Park knowing a win will confirm their top-five spot, assuming no unprecedented goal difference boost for Villa.
A draw for the Magpies would leave them sweating, though, needing Man Utd to avoid defeat against Villa, or Chelsea to draw with Nottingham Forest as a win for either in that game would see them leapfrog Newcastle in that scenario.
Should they lose to David Moyes’ side, Newcastle would need Villa to lose at Old Trafford, as they would definitely drop behind either Chelsea or Forest regardless of the score in that game.
Chelsea
Opponents: Nottingham Forest (A)Opta Supercomputer Chances of UCL Qualification: 57.4%
For much of the season, some considered Chelsea to be a part of a three-way title race. That disappeared after the turn of the year, but Champions League qualification would still be a sign of a progress for a team who have finished 12th and 6th in the last two seasons.
The Blues have a difficult task on Sunday, though, travelling to one of their top-five rivals, Nottingham Forest, where you fancy the atmosphere will be electric and the opposition determined.
Should Chelsea pull off a victory at the City Ground, a top-five place will be sealed, again barring Villa inexplicably smashing the Premier League’s record for biggest victory ever.
A draw would see Chelsea relying on results elsewhere to get them over the line. They’d either need Villa to not win, or Newcastle to lose.
Defeat for Chelsea would almost certainly deny them UCL qualification, with only Newcastle losing by three more goals enough to earn the Blues a reprieve.
Should they finish seventh, they will go back into the Conference League unless they win this year’s final against Real Betis and gain a Europa League spot, in which case the Conference League place drops down to the team in eighth.
Aston Villa
Opponents: Manchester United (A)Opta Supercomputer Chances of UCL Qualification: 42.6%
After their first taste of Champions League football this season, Aston Villa want more, and they still have a decent chance of getting it.
Unai Emery’s men travel to Manchester United, which in almost any other season would seem like a very tricky place to go if you need the points on the final day.
However, the Red Devils sit in 16th place having picked up just two points from their last eight league games, and their focus for much of the week will have been consumed by the Europa League final. So, the visitors probably fancy their chances.
Villa are level on points with Newcastle and Chelsea but have a significantly inferior goal difference, sitting just outside the top five; as such, they definitely need something from Old Trafford.
A win will be enough if either Newcastle or Chelsea drop points, or if Man City lose.
In the event of a draw, Villa would need Newcastle to lose to Everton, as there would be no result possible from the Forest vs Chelsea game that would see Emery’s side finish above both.
Nottingham Forest
Opponents: Chelsea (H)Opta Supercomputer Chances of UCL Qualification: 20.4%
It has been a sensational effort from Nottingham Forest to even get this far, with many tipping them for another relegation battle at the start of the season. However, it would also surely feel like a kick in the backside to not qualify for the Champions League after spending so long in the top five this season.
They at least get to play things out on home soil, though they’ll want to improve their recent form, having not won any of their last three at the City Ground (D1 L2).
Coming up against top-five rivals makes the permutations fairly simple for Forest, as they really just have to win – though even that might not be enough for UCL football.
A draw would only be sufficient in the rather unlikely event that not only do Villa lose, but Newcastle also lose to Everton by at least 10 goals. That said, a draw would at least guarantee Europa League qualification should Villa lose.
If Nuno Espírito Santo’s men emerge victorious, they would also need at least one of Newcastle or Villa to fail to win, or Man City to get mercilessly thrashed at Fulham in order to see a 13-goal swing.
Then there’s the slightly less tense but also possibly vital race for eighth…
Brighton & Hove Albion
Opponents: Tottenham Hotspur (A)Opta Supercomputer Chances of Finishing Eighth: 90.3%
The Seagulls are not in the race for the Champions League places, but they can still make it into Europe.
Eighth place will claim a Conference League spot if Chelsea win this year’s final against Real Betis but also miss out on a top-five spot.
For the two teams who can still finish eighth, all they can do is be there when the music stops and hope for the best.
Brighton have put themselves in a very good position to do so after their comeback victory against Liverpool on Monday, recovering from 1-0 and 2-1 down to win 3-2 at the Amex Stadium. The champions may not have been at their best, but Fabian Hürzeler’s men still did well to win; now with a three-point lead over Brentford, they just need a point at Spurs to confirm eighth.
A defeat would leave them needing Wolves to take something from their game with the Bees.
Brentford
Opponents: Wolves (A)Opta Supercomputer Chances of Finishing Eighth: 9.7%
Should the necessary occur and eighth place becomes a European spot, Brentford may be kicking themselves if they don’t make it.
Thomas Frank’s side have had a solid season but did the opposite of Brighton on Matchday 37, throwing away a 2-1 lead to lose 3-2 at home to Fulham.
That means they have it all to do to get back there on the final day, requiring a victory away to Wolves while also hoping Spurs can beat Brighton. Brentford do at least have the benefit of having a better goal difference than the Seagulls.
Premier League 2024-25: Final Day Fixtures
Bournemouth vs Leicester CityFulham vs Manchester CityIpswich Town vs West Ham UnitedLiverpool vs Crystal PalaceManchester United vs Aston VillaNewcastle United vs EvertonNottingham Forest vs ChelseaSouthampton vs ArsenalTottenham Hotspur vs Brighton & Hove AlbionWolverhampton Wanderers vs Brentford
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Premier League 2024-25: Final Day Permutations Opta Analyst.
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