Predicting the 2025 Playoff: No. 4 Penn State ...Middle East

If not now, I don’t know when it’ll happen for Penn State.

That’ll be the perspective both within that fanbase and nationally. As it should be. Penn State is a lock to be a preseason top-5 team for the first time in the James Franklin era. In fact, the Nittany Lions haven’t been a preseason top-5 team in the 21st century. They also haven’t won a title in the 21st century, either. You know, in case you haven’t heard.

But coming off a semifinalist season with a roster that ranks No. 33 in percentage of returning production, there’s a historic preseason vibe with Penn State. The Lions are tied for 4th in the preseason national title odds at +800. Why? Well, Drew Allar is 3rd in the preseason Heisman Trophy odds, and the returning duo of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen with the majority of its offensive line production back. On top of that, Jim Knowles left Ohio State to run Penn State’s defense.

So yeah, if not now, then when?

A few things are worth noting before we break down individual Playoff paths. One is that while we’re still in the 12-team era, I’m anticipating a change in 2025. I believe that we’ll get rid of the stipulation that the 4 byes/top-4 seeds will go to the 4 highest-ranked conference champs. One year in, I predict that all parties will get on board with changing that. These rankings, which I’ll roll out over the next 2 weeks, will reflect that anticipated change.

In other words, I won’t try to confuse you with seeding. This will just be based on where they’ll show up in the final Playoff poll. Just in case you forgot what Playoff field entails, here’s a refresher:

Does that all sound good? Good.

Here’s the projected 12-team field so far:

Let’s continue with 4-seed Penn State:

Why the Playoff path exists

The snarky way to answer this question would be to say that Penn State can lose to Oregon and Ohio State, and still make the Playoff. Duh. That exact path was opened for Penn State in 2024, and it opened up the possibility for the program’s first Playoff berth. Other than that, a home game vs. Indiana is the only other contest against a team that won more than 8 games in 2024. Penn State can go 1-2 in those games and still not sweat about making the 12-team field.

Let’s also call it like it is — the nonconference schedule is a joke. It’s home games against a pair of Group of 5 teams that won a combined 7 games last year, as well as a matchup against FCS Villanova. You won’t find a Playoff contender with a more favorable nonconference slate than the one Penn State drew up.

We already laid out why the offense, which will be in Year 2 with Andy Kotelnicki, has a lot of pieces to like that suggest a 10-win floor is there. And even if the defense has some questions about who the elite game-wreckers will be in a post-Abdul Carter world, but the Knowles hire suggests there’s a high likelihood that it’ll be more of a preseason conversation than an in-season conversation.

Even a Penn State skeptic can admit that you no longer have to squint to see the Penn State Playoff path.

The potential roadblock

There aren’t a ton of scenarios in which Penn State misses the Playoff because Franklin has 31 consecutive wins vs. unranked teams. The last loss to an unranked team was actually that 9-overtime mess/fiasco/classic against Illinois in 2021. There could be 9 unranked teams on that schedule and it wouldn’t be particularly surprising if Penn State took care of all of them in rather convincing fashion. That has to be acknowledged.

But we also have to acknowledge that there are still some critical questions to answer on offense. As much as every Penn State fan is excited about both Tyler Warren successor Luke Reynolds and Syracuse transfer Trebor Pena, who was a huge post-spring addition, let’s not overlook the fact that Allar is being tasked with developing a rapport with a ton of new options in the passing game. I know what you’re thinking. That’s a good thing. After all, Penn State’s receivers had the dubious distinction of failing to catch a pass in the semifinal loss. That unit was overhauled with Pena, Troy transfer Devonte Ross and USC transfer Kyron Hudson.

Two impressive catches by Trebor Pena on back-to-back plays. pic.twitter.com/4tIsxdhsTk

In addition to not being able to turn to Warren to catch/run/pass when needed, Penn State is also replacing Beau Pribula. It’s unfair to call Pribula a backup quarterback because he had a real role in the offense, which felt like it was missed in that Playoff loss. Penn State’s 2 most unique weapons are gone, and now Kotelnicki’s offense will face 4 defenses that finished in the top 8 in FBS in rushing yards/game allowed (Indiana, Ohio State, UCLA and Nebraska). When Penn State couldn’t run the ball last year — UCLA, Ohio State, USC and Minnesota all held the Lions to 120 rushing yards or less — it was a grind offensively. Three of those 4 games went down to the wire.

Yes, that’ll be easier said than done to contain a Penn State ground attack that should be among the nation’s best, but the roadblock is that the Lions are in a nail-biter game against a team that’s daring them to throw the football, and the 1-2 plays needed don’t go Penn State’s way. They went Penn State’s way against USC and Minnesota last year. Maybe they won’t go Penn State’s way at Iowa, where the Hawkeyes have been giant killers. Perhaps the trip out West, wherein Allar grew up last year at USC, doesn’t break the Lions’ way down the stretch against UCLA.

Would I bank on Penn State going 9-3? Absolutely not. But if that happened, that’s what it would come down to.

Odds that they win a Playoff game

I’ll say it’s 49%.

Remember that we’re talking about a quarterfinal game, and not hosting a home Playoff game. We’re a year removed from watching all 4 of the top seeds lose in the quarterfinal rounds. Maybe 49% is actually too high. We’re also talking about different seeding than just having the 4 highest-ranked conference champs as the top 4 seeds. That could make this an apples-to-oranges comparison.

But the 4-5 matchup would be the Tom Allen Bowl. Penn State would draw a Clemson team that would be plenty prepared for Allar and the Lions’ offense. That’s what would win out. Allar’s performance would be similar to last year’s Notre Dame showing, which finished in devastating fashion. And yeah, I’d still always be wondering about James Franklin’s 4-20 record vs. AP Top 10 teams at Penn State (I don’t count the 0-5 mark at Vanderbilt for obvious reasons). By the way, last year’s squad was 1-3 in those instances, so that’s relevant context for a team that’s got so many of the same faces back.

Perhaps that experience will win out, and Penn State will be the more poised team in what would inevitably be crucial moments. That’s certainly possible, which is why that’s a 49% chance and not a 16.7% chance to match Franklin’s win percentage vs. top-10 teams. We’re a year removed from watching Clemson’s run defense being a doormat in a first-round loss against Texas, and we could see Penn State’s elite 1-2 punch do what the Longhorns did.

Instead, though, Penn State’s best shot at a national title comes up just short again.

Predicting the Playoff will continue on Tuesday with No. 3 … a familiar face from the SEC.

Predicting the 2025 Playoff: No. 4 Penn State Saturday Down South.

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