By Sam Blacker on SwimSwam
Thank you to Franco Antognetti of Nuoto mondiale for the data of sub-3:44 swimmers.
When Lukas Martens broke the 400m freestyle World Record in 3:39.96 at the Stockholm Swim Open earlier in the year, he took the record below 3:40 for the first time, 0.11 faster than Paul Biedermann’s super-suited mark.
However, he was also only 0.12 faster than a 19-year-old Ian Thorpe and less than two seconds ahead of the 3:41.83 Thorpe swam at 1999 Pan Pacs, aged just 17. Martens hadn’t even broken the 3:50 mark at that point in his career, doing so for the first time in February 2020 aged 18.
This raises a question, one asked initially by SwimSwam commentor JimSwim22 here: how old were the very top 400 freestylers, those who have broken 3:44, when they broke the 3:50 mark? Is the relative stagnation of the event in the 25 years since Thorpe dominated the final at the Sydney Olympics related to the age at which swimmers are bursting onto the scene? Or perhaps is its recent resurgence driven by later-blooming swimmers?
The 3:44 mark has only been broken by 36 swimmers in history. Oliver Klemet was the most recent of those, and after a period in the mid-to-late 2010’s where this event had regressed there is now an uber-competitive upper tier around this level. However even today this time would qualify you for the final at any international competition, and is a good place to set a benchmark.
Swimmers to have broken the 3:44-barrier
Rank Best Time Name Age when breaking 3:50 Age when breaking 3:44 1 3:39.96 Maertens, Lukas 18 20 2 3:40.07 Biedermann, Paul 19 22 3 3:40.08 Thorpe, Ian 14 16 4 3:40.14 Sun, Yang 16 18 5 3:40.68 Short, Samuel 17 19 6 3:40.70 Hafnaoui, Ahmed 17 18 7 3:41.11 Mellouli, Oussama 21A 24 8 3:41.22 Winnington, Elijah 17 20 9 3:41.35 Zhang, Lin 19 21 10 3:41.53 Park, Tae Hwan 16 18 11 3:41.55 Horton, Mack 17 18 12 3:42.42 KIM, Woomin 20 21 13 3:42.51 Hackett, Grant 17 21 14 3:42.76 Costa, Guilherme 18 23 15 3:42.78 Jensen, Larsen A. 18 22 16 3:42.81 Klemet, Oliver 19 22 17 3:43.11 Vanderkaay, Peter W. 20 24 18 3:43.23 Detti, Gabriele 17 21 19 3:43.24 Auboeck, Felix 19 24 20 3:43.27 McLoughlin, Jack 20 26 21 3:43.36 Rapsys, Danas 22 23 22 3:43.40 Rosolino, Massimiliano 19 22 23 3:43.42 Dwyer, Conor J. 23 27 24 3:43.45 Lobintsev, Nikita 18 19 25 3:43.46 Cochrane, Ryan 19 25 26 3:43.67 Muhlleitner, Henning 19 24 27 3:43.71 McKeon, David 19 20 28 3:43.75 Guy, James 17 19 29 3:43.79 Jaeger, Connor L. 21 25 30 3:43.80 Perkins, Kieren – – 31 3:43.85 Agnel, Yannick 17 18 32 3:43.90 Hagino, Kosuke 18 19 33 3:43.92 Vendt, Erik K. 26 27 34 3:43.93 Djakovic, Antonio 16 19 35 3:43.94 Smith, Kieran 19 21 36 3:43.97 Prilukov, Yury 19 24We have not been able to find the first date that Kieren Perkins, #30 all time, first broke 3:50 or 3:44. The historical times of swimmers in Asia and Australia especially are not easy to find.
When do swimmers that reach these heights break our first standard, the 3:50 barrier? Although Thorpe is an outlier here, a not insignificant proportion do so before their 18th birthday – most of those between 17 and 18. Notably though, more than half of this group break the mark after aging out of the juniors.
However, it is interesting to note that of those who have gone on to become either Olympic or World Champion two-thirds broke the mark before turning 18, and all but one (Woomin Kim) did so before they were 20.
Starting Young or A Late Surge – Progression from the 3:50-mark to breaking 3:44
Luka Mijatovic became one of the youngest swimmers in history to break 3:50 when winning Junior Pan Pacs last year in 3:49.24 at just 15. If he were to go on to break the 3:44-barrier, he would be the second-youngest amongst this group to have broken 3:50.
Youngest 5 swimmers to break 3:50 to then break 3:44
Swimmer (NAT), age when breaking 3:50 – time until breaking 3:44
Ian Thorpe (AUS), 14 years – 2 years, 10 days Park Hae Twan (KOR), 16 years old – 2 years, 278 days Sun Yang (CHN), 16 years old – 2 years, 285 days Antonio Djakovic (SUI), 16 years old – 3 years, 150 days Yannick Agnel (FRA), 17 years old – 1 year, 258 daysThree of those five are either World or Olympic champions in the 400 free, and just off that list at #6 and #7 are Ahmed Hafnaoui and Sam Short who also fit into that category.
Six of those seven (including Hafnaoui and Short) broke 3:44 within three years of breaking 3:50. Djakovic was the sole one not to do so, breaking the barrier three years and five months after his first sub-3:50 swim.
This appears to be a theme throughout all 36 swimmers. For the vast majority of them (72.2%), the time between breaking 3:50 and 3:44 was less than four years. Drops come in spurts, rather than being continuously incremental. History would indicate that if he did so, Mijatovic would be breaking 3:44 sometime in 2027 or 2028, which would be the perfect leadup to the LA 2028 Olympics.
The swimmers highlighted in red are those who have won the 400 free at either Worlds or the Olympics
It also does seem to matter at what age swimmers are breaking the first mark – breaking 3:50 later on does seem to result in a slower progression down to 3:44.
What does seem to matter is where on the list those swimmers end up. The top five swimmers who broke 3:50 after the age of 18 were below 3:44 within just over three years, and 12 of the top 13 swimmers all-time had a similar progression. Every swimmer other than Grant Hackett (3.94 years) who has broken 3:44 and also become either World or Olympic champion has followed this three-year trajectory.
The 400 free does not seem to be an event that swimmers come back to or excel at in their later years. The peak seems to be early-to-mid 20’s for most, with the outliers tending to skew younger rather than older, and with the exception of 2024 worlds finals have been trending younger again since 2020. This is what the age breakdown of every World or Olympic final since 2000 looks like:
Only two finals in that period have an average age over 23.5, with the median sitting around 22.5. In addition, in only four of 20 finals has the winner been over 22 years of age. This doesn’t appear to result in slower times, and three of the six fastest finals since 2000 have had an average age under 22 – all three of those since 2022. Younger finals do seem to be either feast or famine however.
The majority of swimmers that reach the 3:43s are outstanding swimmers at a younger age; but that does not necessarily mean as juniors. The key tenet to reaching the very top is actually rapid improvement once you’ve blasted through the 3:50 barrier – the three years after that are crucial.
Luckily for recent US swimmers to have broken that mark, there is a more than tangible goal in three years time. Could LA 2028 be the first time we see the US at the top of the podium in the men’s 400 free since 1984?
Read the full story on SwimSwam: Anointed From Birth? When Do The Top Men’s 400 Freestylers Emerge
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